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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Sober government communication on Ukraine, orderly MNB rate hike today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2022

The MNB carried out the expected 30 bps sterilisation rate hike today, raising the 1-week deposit rate to 4.6% at this week's deposit tender. The MNB did not react to the forint's significant weakening, caused by the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the fall of EURUSD, during the day.The govern...

Belarus not fighting in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2022

On February 24 Lukashenka stated that his armed forces are not participating in the fighting in Ukraine. Thousands of Russian troops are in Belarus for a military exercise earlier this month. Some Russian soldiers crossed the border into Ukraine on February 24.Belarus conformed that it was inform...

Senate postpones vote on fuel bills, the STF resumes judgment of the increase in the party fund and Bolsonaro’s participation in the CEO Conference yesterday had repercussions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Feb 2022

The Senate postponed the vote on the bills dealing with fuel until March 8. The governors do not want the bill on the ICMS, and the government is resisting the bill that deals with the price stabilization fund. Further changes to the text may be made. In a very long vote, the rapporteur of the pa...

Budget 2022 showcases a commodity tax bonanza, presents considerable social spend, and an improved debt trajectory for South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Feb 2022

As he delivered his 2022 State of the Nation Address (SONA), President Ramaphosa made it clear that South Africa is currently facing “extreme fiscal constraints”, and this is the backdrop against which Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana yesterday delivered Budget 2022. Throughout his speech, the M...

Russia invades Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2022 · 1 response

On February 24 Russian forces crossed the border into what even Russia recognizes as Ukrainian territory. There have been artillery bombardments, air strikes and missile strikes. The Ukrainians claimed to have shot down Russian fighter jets. Russian troops advanced from Russia and Belarus. This w...

A new political cycle has opened up
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Feb 2022

Once again, the Venezuelan political conflict is being reconfigured. The view now is widespread that a new political cycle has opened up and the 2024 presidential elections are the key milestone. The opposition is undergoing reconfiguration, in a process that’s chaotic but will lead to the fo...

Bond issuance reduced in March due to robust fiscal data
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Feb 2022

The MoF reduced the weekly bond issuance to 1.0bn ILS in March from 1.15bn in February on the back of very positive fiscal data in January and expectations that the deficit will undershoot target. Bond redemptions will reach 3.1bn in March, close to the level of issuance of 4.0bn. Following the s...

Ukraine calls up reserves as Russia urges its citizens to leave Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2022

On February 23 Ukraine announced the call-up of part-time military personnel. They can be activated for up to 1 year. The State Security Council has suggested a 30-day state of emergency but it is up to the Ukrainian Parliament to decide this.President Zelensky says he still wants a diplomatic so...

Rapid growth, high inflation
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Feb 2022

This month’s story is about the substantial upside surprises in the latest GDP and inflation reports. These need to be looked at in the light of the upcoming election, as the Fidesz government is aiming to enjoy the positive public mood created by its heavily procyclical fiscal and income policie...

US and EU sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2022 · 3 responses

On February 22 the US announced new sanctions on Russia. They will effectively prevent Russia from borrowing new money or refinancing debt. However, the US stopped short of cutting Russia off from SWIFT (on which it does not have a unilateral say) or sanctioning Putin personally. The US and UK ci...

The IMF starts second review on Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Feb 2022

The IMF starts an online mission for the second review of the current program, according to the Ukraine’s representative at the IMF. One of the most trouble-making point is the still delayed appointment of the head the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO). Recall, the competitio...

​Sovereign Debt: New Sanctions will cover secondary market, but only for newly issued paper
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2022 · 1 response

Western countries continue to introduce new sanctions after the decision of Russian authorities to recognize the independence of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk republics. Yesterday and today both US and EU authorities announced a new portion of restrictions regarding sovereign debt. To remind,...

Guedes outlines a series of measures to stimulate the economy, Ciro Gomes and Bolsonaro speak at the CEO Conference and the OAB files a case against the court-ordered payments constitutional amendment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2022

One of the measures outlined by Guedes is to reduce the rate of the Tax on Industrialized Products (IPI) by 25%. There should also be a new access-to-credit program for small and medium-sized companies, and access should be granted to FGTS resources for people to pay off debts. At the CEO Confere...

​Kilicdaroglu throws hat into ring, makes new promises
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Feb 2022 · 2 responses

Main opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu seems to be smelling victory. In an extended interview with Reuters, he stated his readiness to step forward as the joint presidential candidate of the 6-party opposition alliance. He is also developing an economic and diplomacy platform to run on. As our...

​Ukraine crisis is a gas opportunity for Qatar, a diplomatic challenge for the UAE and a spur for OPEC+ tapering
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Feb 2022 · 1 response

* OPEC+ is more likely to boost volumes, particularly in May, when higher baselines come into effect for UAE, Saudi and Kuwait. * Qatar has a huge opportunity to sign long-term LNG contracts on beneficial terms. Its North Field expansion will deliver more gas than Nord Stream 2. * The UAE faces...

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