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The South African Reserve Bank maintains momentum as it raises interest rates by a third consecutive 75 bps
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Nov 2022

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to increase the benchmark interest rate by a further 75 basis points, from 6.25% to 7%, during its final meeting of the year. As a result, the prime lending rate also increased from 9.75% to 10.5%. In this report we di...

Moving slowly into recession
HUNGARY · Report · 25 Nov 2022

Preliminary GDP for Q3 was much stronger than suggested previously by the MNB’s frequently cited lead indicator. However, the economy is still moving into recession slowly, as shown by the marginally negative quarterly growth rate. Strengths in Q3 included industry and retail sales, whereas real ...

Russia bans gay propaganda among adults
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2022

On November 24 the lower house of the Russian Parliament passed a law that imposes fines of thousands of USD for encouraging non-traditional sexual relationships. Encouraging such relationships among children was already outlawed. Encouraging sex changes is also now forbidden. The bill has gone t...

MPC: Done for now on easing, but more interventions to come
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Nov 2022 · 1 response

As openly stated at its last meeting statement (link here), the CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate to much anticipated single-digit 9% rate today, from 10.5% previously. The statement said, also as expected, the easing cycle is done for now, but left the door open for further easing down the road, ...

Russia issues passports to 80,000 in occupied Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2022

On November 24 Moscow said that it has issued Russian passports to people living in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Russia held referendums there in September 2022, and in October 2022 annexed the regions. The UN condemned this, and the international community recognizes the r...

EU Parliament labels Russia a state sponsor of terrorism
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2022

On November 23 the resolution was passed, by a vote of 494-58. The vote has no legal repercussions. Hours later a cyberattack hit the Parliament and a pro-Kremlin hacker group Killnet said it was responsible. The attack forced a lot of traffic onto the site to overburden the server. The attack wa...

Kazakhstan’s budget deficit expectedly widens amid a year-end spending spree
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Nov 2022 · 1 response

In a short report, the Kazakh Ministry of Finance reported that in 10M22, the republican budget deficit widened to around KZT1.5 trillion from less than KZT 1.1 trillion in 9M22 as expenditures started catching up with the amended plan. In 10M2, the government spent KZT14.5 trillion, while in 9M2...

The PL filed a lawsuit at the TSE calling for the annulment of votes from almost 280,000 voting machines, the text of the Transition PEC should be finalized today, and the STF should resume analysis of the INSS “lifelong review”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Nov 2022

Yesterday, the PL filed a lawsuit at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) asking for the annulment of the votes of 279,300 electronic voting machines due to a “malfunction” in the system. The president of the TSE, Minister Alexandre de Moraes, decided that Bolsonaro's coalition will have to present...

Russia accuses Ukraine of the murders of POWs
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Nov 2022

On November 20 Russia said that 10 Russians who were captured by Ukraine were shot dead. The United Nations published a report saying both sides had tortured and mistreated Prisoners of War (POWs).Russia has shown footage of men in Russian uniform who had been shot from close range. The video als...

Soccer – our hope of last resort
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Nov 2022

The intentions of Correistas, Social Christians, and the rebels from Pachakutik to oust President Guillermo Lasso have not ended. They sent a recent new petition to the Electoral Council to revoke his mandate under the argument of a “failed state”, based on the recent cruel massacres that occurre...

Absolutely no surprise at today's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Nov 2022

As we wrote yesterday, the regular monthly rate-setting meeting today was not expected to lead to any policy change, as the existing mix appears to be working fine for now. The Council exactly met this expectation, leaving the base rate at 13%, the interest rate corridor at 12.5-25%, and saying p...

Leaders should reach an agreement on the Transition PEC today, the Senate may vote on official appointments, and in a leaked audio message TCU Minister Augusto Nardes said there would be “a very unpredictable event in the country”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Nov 2022

The president of the House, Arthur Lira, said that the deadline is short as there are only about 20 working days left until the National Congress recesses. A consensus must be reached this week so that the PEC can conclude its analysis in the Senate next week and, later, be submitted to the House...

Congress vs. Castillo—who sacks whom?
PERU · Report · 22 Nov 2022

In this report, we try to answer three key questions: What will happen to the presidency of Pedro Castillo? Is the economy transitioning to a new normal growth rate? And when will the Central Bank end its tightening cycle? We argue that the confrontation between President Pedro Castillo and th...

It won't be easy for Lula and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

With Lula's return to Brazil after his trip to Egypt, he is expected to announce future members of his ministerial team. Party leaders are trying to reach an agreement on the Transition PEC, which may be put to a vote in the Senate by the end of the month. This week's Talking Points:  ...

A Disastrous Proposal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

With a public debt that is too big for a developing country and with a real interest rate higher than the economic growth rate, Brazil needs to generate primary surpluses sufficiently large to reduce the debt/GDP ratio to avoid losing control of inflation and hampering economic growth. However, e...

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