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Big Brother economics
TURKEY · Report · 20 Feb 2022 · 1 response

The Ukraine Crisis looms as a not-so-small threat to economic stability, not to mention the political implications. Having covered the politics of it in our previous reports, we take a brief look at the potential economic fallout. Erdogan’s UAE’s visit was hailed as a major political and econ...

Robust growth supports monetary tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Feb 2022

The Israeli economy expanded by 8.1% in 2021 Annual GDP growth in Q421 reached 16.6% following 6.7% in Q321. The level of GDP in Q421 is 8.9% above Q419 (pre-Covid), basically reflecting rapid annual growth of above Israel’s estimated growth potential of 4%. The output gap is rapidly closing. Lab...

Uzbekistan receives USD 10 million from Gulnara Karimova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Feb 2022

On February 15 the government announced that it had recovered assets that it says the daughter of the late president misappropriated. The money was returned from France. Uzbekistan is working with Switzerland, the USA, France, Russia to recover more of Gulnara Karimova's assets.A multiparty trust...

Fighting intensified in East Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Feb 2022

On February 19 the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe recorded 1,500 breaches of the ceasefire. That is the highest number in 2021. Fighting is fiercest in Luhansk. The Ukrainian Interior Minister dived for cover when a mortar fell within 500 meters of him. Putin said the situation i...

​DR Government places foreign bonds and carries out liability management operation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Feb 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that sovereign bonds were placed in the international capital market for USD3.56 b. About USD2.3 b will finance the 2022 Public Budget, covering 63.6% of the total external financing to be contracted in accordance with Law 345-01. The remaining USD1.26 b are desti...

Brazilian President visits Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2022

On February 16 Jair Bolsonaro visited Moscow and met Putin. The US lobbied hard for Bolsonaro not to visit Russia. Bolsonaro has been an outspoken admirer of Putin. The visit's timing is very welcome as it proves that Russia has friends far beyond its borders. However, the visit was planned month...

Culmination of the Kremlin’s staging
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Feb 2022

We are approaching the culmination of the staging with Russian troops’ deployment. Russians have started evacuating civilians from occupied territories of Donbass but ordered all men of military age to stay in place. Also Russians are bringing heavy armor closer to the frontlines in Donbas. These...

Beyond the Russian threat, monetary tapering looms
UKRAINE · Report · 18 Feb 2022

The threat of a Russian invasion has dominated the headlines for several months now. Ukraine still sees Russia deploying more troops and combat support elements on its border as a big bargaining game, and Ukrainian officials do not expect Russia to undertake serious military action. However, the ...

Atilla Yesilada’s interview with Global Business Europe: inflation and popular sentiment, tourism, and outreach by Turkey to the GCC
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2022 · 2 responses

We present Atilla Yesilada's February 17, 2022 interview with daily business show Global Business Europe, in which he speaks about popular sentiment in the face of high inflation, the prospects for the tourism sector from a geopolitical standpoint, and the recent trip by President Erdogan to the ...

GDP up by 4.7% in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Feb 2022

The Russian GDP reached nearly R130.1 trln in 2021 and was up by 4.7%. These numbers are higher than was expected earlier, however, permanent upward revisions of selected historical data during the year prompted that surprises from Rosstat could not be ruled out. Still, the currently available qu...

GULF WEEKLY: Erdogan visits UAE, PIF gets Aramco equity, Kuwaiti ministers resign
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Feb 2022 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia appears to have rebuffed US advances to boost production to ease market pressures. * Details of the Iran nuclear deal indicate a confidence-building stage, then sanctions' lifting by mid-year. * $80bn of Ara...

The president of the Central Bank meets with union representatives to discuss the salary raise issue, the government may announce its new leader in the Senate, and two new polls will be published next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Feb 2022

Roberto Campos Neto first met with union representatives on February 3, when they stated they would go on strike on March 9. President Jair Bolsonaro said he will decide on the issue by May, but hinted that all raises might have to wait until next year to avoid general discontent in the civil ser...

Shelling in Ukraine as possible provocations loom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Feb 2022

On February 17 Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels shelled each other in Eastern Ukraine. The Donetsk People's Republic stated that shelling had intensified dramatically. Kyiv accused rebels of shelling a kindergarten.The Kremlin called on Western countries to rein in Ukraine. On February 15 Putin sai...

1-week depo rate unchanged at 4.3% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2022

This note is just to keep things in order. The 1-week depo rate (= the effective sterilisation rate) was kept by the MNB unchanged at 4.3% for today's tender. This is no great story, as they said last month that they would raise the depo rate only once a month from there onwards, ideally right on...

Hope for the best, prepare for the best
TURKEY · Report · 17 Feb 2022

The CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at 14% (simple), as expected. There is little change in the statement (link here), other than a stronger emphasis on the “liraization” strategy, introduced earlier, and a new sentence on the “significance” of “extending long-term Turkish lira investment...

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