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Politics: Massive protest against AMLO’s political reform, potentially upending politics
MEXICO · Report · 21 Nov 2022

The upstart National Civic Front (FCN) and five other civil society organizations that have all now banded together in the "Unidos" citizens' initiative staged protests nationwide on November 13 to defend the National Electoral Institute and oppose the electoral reform of President López Obrador....

Politics in times of high inflation
ARGENTINA · Report · 21 Nov 2022

In a context of rising inflation and low government confidence indices, at last Thursday's speech on the “Day of the Militancy” (the day when parties celebrate the commitment and support of their voters), CFK presented herself in a rock-star manner, in a crowded “Ciudad de La Plata” Stadium. She ...

Rates increased by 0.5% with a more dovish monetary statement
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Nov 2022

Policy rates increased by 0.5% today to a level of 3.25%. Previously, expectations were divided between a 0.5% and a 0.75% rate hike. We note that for the first time we the monetary announcement sounded a bit more dovish, in conjunction with the usual statements supporting tightening (economic ac...

Leaders try to reach an agreement on the Transition PEC, Lula will make important decisions in Brasilia this week, and on Friday the STF should decide regarding sentences in the tax area
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

Allied leaders will try to reach an agreement on the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). Some options are already on the table. The most likely scenario today continues to be a value lower than that proposed by the government and a period of one year. Lula will be in Brasilia this...

President of Kazakhstan re-elected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2022

On November 20, in a widely expected result, the president won another term. Exit polls show him winning at least 82% of the vote. The official tally has not been announced.  Turnout was only 69%. Some Kazakhs see no point in voting because the result is a foregone conclusion. The constitution wa...

OFZ: a new approach to placement tactics
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

In mid-October, the Russian Ministry of Finance resumed primary OFZ auctions despite challenging market conditions. Moreover, by the beginning of November, it became clear that the government had set a priority to borrow as much as possible. As a result, the Ministry raised R1.3 trln on the marke...

Rate hike of 0.5% likely today
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Nov 2022

1. Opinions are divided regarding today’s rate decision: we are leaning towards a 0.5% hike, but 0.75% cannot be ruled out. 2. GDP growth slowed in Q322 on modest private consumption growth, while investments and high-tech service exports expanded. 3. Inflation is expected to slow next year...

Fuels restrictions today, rate-setting meeting tomorrow, EP resolution on Thursday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Nov 2022

1. From today, MOL, essentially the only wholesaler of fuels in the country in these days, is not supplying those petrol stations, for which it is not contractually required to do so. This came after the incident that an energy supplier unit of the Friendship pipeline in Ukraine was hit by a Russ...

Economics: As the monetary rate rises, bank credit continues to expand
MEXICO · Report · 21 Nov 2022 · 1 response

With the recent hikes in monetary policy interest rates in leading economies at a time of persistently high inflation, central bank authorities have signaled that we are facing a prolonged period of elevated interest rates. Such warnings from the Federal Reserve are of particular significance to ...

Rate hike of 0.5% likely today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Nov 2022

Today’s rate decision will not be an easy one Expectations are divided between a 0.5% and a 0.75% hike. Several factors support a 0.75% hike, including October’s upward inflation surprise, accelerating core inflation y/y, presently decent growth, a tight labor market and wage pressures. Other fac...

Poland refuses to let Russian Foreign Minister in
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2022

On November 19 Warsaw said that it will not allow the Russian FM to attend the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which Poland is hosting. Poland is not letting Sergei Lavrov in because he is under EU sanctions. Poland is perhaps Ukraine's foremost advocate in the EU. The...

Murder, mystery, mayhem
TURKEY · Report · 20 Nov 2022 · 1 response

Turkish jets strafed Syrian Kurdish settlements in retaliation for the Beyoglu terror attack. We doubt this will escalate into a military campaign, though. There is a lot of commentary on Erdogan’s diplomatic efforts elevating his credibility and raising his voter approval at home. We are circums...

Finland to build fence on the Russian border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Nov 2022

On November 18 Finland said the 200 km fence will enhance its security. Finland has been neutral since 1944. In March 2022 it ended this policy because it said there was a threat from Russia and applied to join NATO. That is a breach of its 1944 peace treaty with the USSR. The 3-meter fence will ...

Russians seeking Armenian citizenship
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2022

In Q1 and Q2 2022 over 372,000 Russians went to Armenia. That is more than double the number in the same period in 2021. Since the mobilization in September 2022 even more Russians moved to Armenia but data is not yet available. Some of the Russians who went to Armenia in 2022 went on short visit...

GULF WEEKLY: Gulf IPOs dominate EMEA, IMF reports on Oman, US grants MBS immunity
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Nov 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to a one-month low on Fed worries and as OPEC/IEA revised down demand forecasts. * Kuwait and Qatar voted for Ukraine reparations while other Gulf states abstained. * Gulf IPOs have raised $18bn already this ye...

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