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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Lula may have the most TV and radio time and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2022

Congress meets on Tuesday to review presidential vetoes. The rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal, Roberto Rocha, may submit his report to the CCJ of the Senate. The fuel issue remains on the agenda in the Executive and Legislative branches. The Genial/Quaest and XP/Ipespe polls on the president...

Inflation, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Feb 2022

At the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank did what it had announced at the previous meeting, raising the SELIC rate by 1.5 percentage points, to 10.75%. Although it announced that at the next meeting the increase will be smaller, against a backdrop of stubborn inflation and unanchoring of expec...

High inflation could warrant surprise Central Bank move
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2022

In January 2022, CPI annual inflation was 6.94%, surpassing the 6.31% expected by the respondents to the Central Bank survey. Food, increase of 19.94%, however 186 of the 188 classes of goods and services had price increases. So, it is a widespread phenomenon that goes well beyond food (see Table...

Politics: Main political agendas of the major branches and political players for the coming months
MEXICO · Report · 07 Feb 2022

Aside from President López Obrador’s three remaining “structural” reform proposals, which are very relevant for his project, there are not too many major agenda points for the current session of Congress that got underway February 1 and concludes at the end of April. However, there is a massive b...

Congress is expected to review presidential vetoes this week, the fuels issue remains on the agenda, and two new polls on the presidential election are to be published
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2022

One of the vetoes that may be overturned is the one on the Budget. In all, the Bolsonaro government vetoed R$ 3.184 billion in expenditures approved by legislators. The rapporteur of the bill supports overturning this veto. Another veto refers to the bill that allowed the renegotiation of debts o...

Turkey Covid Watch - February 7, 2022
TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2022

Since our last Covid Watch (of January 24, 2022), cases continued to rise, to reach new highs. Average cases rose to 101.7K on Sunday. Despite daily infections reaching record levels, however, there has been no changes in the regulatory environment.

Economics: Latest batch of labor market indicators rounds out the 2022 economic outlook
MEXICO · Report · 07 Feb 2022

At a time when the economy is stalling – after having failed to produce any growth in the last two quarters of 2021 – and inflation continues to climb, the labor market has been emitting mixed signals. In line with indicators we have previously analyzed that appeared to foreshadow a more anemic e...

Tightening labor market and strong growth support higher rates
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Feb 2022

1. Despite Omicron, economic data in January was generally positive, including the latest business survey and employment growth. 2. Credit growth was rapid in 2021, especially household credit for housing, and this will increasingly become a consideration for monetary policy. 3. We ...

All about the elections
TURKEY · Report · 06 Feb 2022 · 1 response

The politics section of this report is entirely dedicated to the possibility of early elections because this is the “only talk of the town”. We start by revisiting our 2022 baseline political scenario, which remains broadly intact, with only minor revisions. The next section cites circumstanti...

Tightening labor market and strong growth support higher rates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Feb 2022

The business sector survey reflects fairly strong growth in January (except for hotels); the outlook ahead is generally positive. This print is surprisingly strong in light of the peak of the Omicron wave.Wage growth remains moderate Wage growth is averaging 3.4% annual over the past two years, m...

Industry and retail sales data: good news on growth
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Feb 2022

Monthly data for December appear quite good from the growth perspective. Industrial output growth rose to 3.6% yoy, after 2.2% yoy in November and negative figures in the preceding two months. Indeed, this was the best figure seen since July, the last month of the initial post-Covid recovery phas...

China supports Russia against NATO
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2022

On February 4 Putin met the Chinese President in Beijing. Putin is there for the start of the Winter Olympics. It was their first in person meeting for almost two years. President Xi refused all face to face meetings until now because of coronavirus.China said that NATO should not let in any more...

Erdogan in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2022

On February 3 the Turkish President visited Kyiv. He offered to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey has cordial relations with both nations. Despite being a NATO member, Turkey cannot be relied upon to take the side of other NATO countries with regard to Ukraine. Ukraine is not a NATO memb...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE intercepts attacks and announces tax, Dubai Q3 GDP, Oman raising loan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Feb 2022 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ stuck to its 400k b/d taper, and oil rose to a new post-2014 high of $93. * PMIs fell slightly in Saudi Arabia and UAE due to Omicron and inflation. * Saudi government deposits at SAMA fell sharply in December, may...

A PEC on the fuels issue was submitted to Congress yesterday, the governors are trying to postpone the discussion on tax reform, and public servants are expected to mobilize in favor of a salary raise again next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Feb 2022

Deputy Christino Áureo (PP-RJ) submitted a Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) that allows the government to reduce or even zero taxes on all fuels, cooking gas and taxes such as the IPI in 2022 and 2023 – without needing to compensate for the drop in revenue with an increase in other taxes. ...

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