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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Consumer lending grew strongly in August but may decelerate or even stagnate in 4Q22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

The CBR reported that consumer lending was on the rise as total credit granted by banks to households grew in August by 1.1% m-o-m and reached R27.4 trln. It was the second consecutive month that consumer credit increased (it grew by the same 1.1% m-o-m in July). In the two preceding months, it r...

The European gas battle continues
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

President Biden was right: should Russia invade Ukraine, the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline would not work at all. For sure, Nordstream 1 and 2 were made inoperable for a very long time, and possibly forever, by a series of blasts observed on September 26-27. Politically, this has removed the option f...

BoI hikes by 0.75%, in line with expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

Aggressive tightening continues due to broad based inflation The Bank of Israel hiked today by 0.75% to a level of 2.75%. The monetary statement noted that inflation is broad based and increasingly apparent in non-tradeable prices (mostly services) which continued to accelerate to 5.1% y/y in Aug...

POGOs: What’s at stake?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

We momentarily turn our eyes away from the turmoil in financial markets and take a look at the uproar in the online gambling industry. Called POGOs, short for Philippine offshore gaming operators, the industry is akin to business process outsourcing (BPO) in that firms set up bases in the Philipp...

The election will be decided in a runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro, Lula had a 5.23% lead over Bolsonaro, and the candidates are preparing their campaigns for the runoff round
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Oct 2022

Former President Lula’s advantage in the first round was much lower than the polls suggested – some institutions predicted a double- digit difference between the votes received by the two leading candidates. At the end of Election Day, Lula was in the lead by only 5.23%. Some aspects of the race ...

Inflation increases further in September, has yet to peak
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2022

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 3.1%, m/m, in September, compared with consensus forecasts of 3.6-3.7% (and our forecast of 3.4%), but the 12-month rate nevertheless rose further to 83.5% from 80.2% in August. Parenthetically, this is the sixteenth consecutive month of increase in C...

A 0.75% rate hike today appears slightly more probable
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Oct 2022

1. We view a 0.75% rate hike today as slightly more probable than 0.5%. 2. We expect the BoI policy rate forecast to be revised higher, to 3.5%-3.75% in the third quarter of 2023. 3. Recent indicators (credit card purchases) point to some deceleration in private consumption growth.

Everything, everywhere, all at once
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Oct 2022 · 2 responses

Pension reform was one of President Gustavo Petro’s key campaign issues. He emphasized increasing coverage of the old-age protection system, and diverting to Colpensiones, the public pay-as-you-go system administrator, the bulk of current contributions to mandatory private pension funds. Implem...

NATO chiefs condemn Russian annexation as mobilization stalls
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

On October 2 the presidents of 9 Eastern European NATO nations issued a denunciatory statement regarding the Russian claim that four Ukrainian districts are now an integral part of Russia. They said that the referendums were illegal and null. They stated that they would never accept that these di...

Peru’s mid-term elections: a major defeat for President Castillo
PERU · In Brief · 02 Oct 2022

Today, Peru elected regional and local authorities--Governors and Mayors. This was the first-time voters went back to the ballots since the July 28, 2021, election when President Castillo was elected. From the first exit polls released today at 5pm (new results are due tonight at 10pm Lima time),...

A 0.75% rate hike today appears slightly more probable
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Oct 2022

Today’s rate decision will surely be a rate hike, the question is whether 0.5% or 0.75%. What will support a more moderate rate hike of 0.5%? *  The last CPI print came in below expectations, reaching -0.3% m/m compared to expectations of -0.1% to -0.2%. Food prices came in below expectations (-0...

Armenia changing due to Russian influx
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Oct 2022

Tens of thousands of Russians have fled to Armenia following the mobilization of 300,000 reservists on September 21. One-way air tickets from Moscow to Yerevan now top USD 2,000, several times the usual price. Some have paid over USD 5,000. There are over 20 flights a day from Russia to Yerevan, ...

Hunger Games start early
TURKEY · Report · 02 Oct 2022

The politics section kicks off with a personal view by the politics author, who suspects that foul play to win the elections might have already started. He cites the recent and unique PKK attack on a police station, a draconian social media censorship bill and new probes against popular CHP mayor...

Russia voted off UN aviation agency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Oct 2022

On October 1 the decision was made at the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). This is a diplomatic defeat for Russia. 36 countries are on the ICAO.  Russia closed its airspace to airlines from 36 countries including all EU countries in February 2022. These 36 countries banned Russia...

Ukrainian forces retake lands amid Putin's announcing annexations
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Oct 2022

On the day Vladimir Putin was announcing the annexation of occupied territories Ukrainian forces completed the total encirclement of the Russian grouping in Lyman (nearly 5000 soldiers). This grouping is not big but it includes the most motivated and best trained soldiers Russians have in this ar...

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