GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

December figures on CPI-inflation, reported this morning, look just beautiful. They are 1.9% mom, 24.5% yoy, the year-on-year number up from 22.5% in November. But the median analyst expectation in Portfolio.hu's survey was 25.8%, and MNB's Q4 inflation report expected 24.8-27.1%. The latter was ...

Contradictory Russian claims on the Battle of Soledar

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jan 2023

On January 11 the head of the Russian Wagner mercenary group said that it had taken Soledar. Evgeny Prigozhin emphasized how tough the battle had been and also praised the Ukrainians for ''honorably and bravely defending the territory''. He also said the claim that Ukrainians are deserting is fal...

Friend to all enemy to none

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 Jan 2023

Ever since Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. came into office in July last year, his foreign affairs team has been busily working at re-centering Philippine foreign policy after the extreme pro-US then pro-China stances of the previous two administrations. In his words, President Marcos defined his foreign p...

Entering 2023, all buttons punched

TURKEY · Report · 08 Jan 2023 · 2 responses

President Erdogan kicked off the year with the mother of all pork-barreling drives to win elections. While his magnanimity is certain to stimulate the standings in the polls of him and his AKP-MHP alliance, the surge is very unlikely to last until the elections or alter the current equilibrium in...

Zelensky hails arms package

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2023

On January 7 the Ukrainian President applauded Western countries for unprecedented arms shipments. The US is going to send Bradley armored fighting vehicles that destroy tanks as well as anti-aircraft missiles, drones, rockets, howitzers and high precision weapons. On January 6 the US announced t...

Russia political/pandemic update: Russia-West conflict to deepen in 2023

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jan 2023 · 1 response

As time goes by and the conflict in Ukraine produces increasingly higher casualties, politicians of all sorts care less and less about those who have become victims of political stubbornness. Indeed, if we assume that the amount of compassion and regret politicians offer to ordinary people is a c...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai lifts alcohol tax, FAB mooted buying StanChart, Oman’s detailed budget

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped below $80 this week on global recession fears. * The GCC had 5/10 most active SWFs in 2022, boosting investments in major deals by 88% y/y. * The UAE called a UN meeting over a controversial holy site visit by ...

Russia sends hypersonic missiles to the Atlantic

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

On January 4 it was announced on Russian TV that Russian frigates armed with Zircon missiles have been dispatched to the Atlantic. The frigate is the Admiral Gorshkov. Putin is presumably acting tough to deter the West from arming Ukraine and also to distract the Russian public from the recent se...

Record warm weather in Europe, gas reserves slightly up, gas price massively down

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

It seems that for now at least, Mother Nature is refusing to play to the hands of Vladimir Vladimirovich (Mr. Putin), whose not-so-secret objectives include making Europe truly feel the winter cold, as gas supplies are proving insufficient. In these days, most of Europe, including Hungary, is exp...

Russia struggling in Bakhmut as casualties mount

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

On January 3 Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Russian TV that fighting in Bakhmut is very difficult. Prigozhin is the head of Wagner Private Military Company. Wagner fights alongside the Russian Army. Prigozhin said that the Ukrainians had built excellent defenses. It is house by house fighting. He did ...

Russian gas exports to non-CIS countries down 45% in 2022

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2023 · 1 response

On January 3 Gazprom released the data. Gas exports outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was 101 billion cubic meters in 2022. It was 185 bcm in 2021. The CIS is an organization that is open to ex-USSR countries, and most of them have chosen to join. The EU was the principal Gazpr...

Inflation ends the year under 65%

TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2023

Consumer prices rose by some 1.2% in December, with the 12-month CPI inflation ending the year at under 65% (64.3%), down from 84.4% in November, but markedly higher than 36.1% of end-2021. December CPI print compares rather favorably to the consensus (of around 2.6-2.8%) and our somewhat lower f...

Adios, interim presidency

VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jan 2023

The interim presidency was born in January 2019 under the hypothesis that growing street protests and the Trump administration's maximum pressure strategy would lead to the early breakdown of the Maduro government. It expired in December 2022 in the worst possible way. The debate that led to its ...

Russian bombardment of Ukraine continues

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2023

On New Year's Day Russian missile and drone attacks continued. Ukraine said 4 people were killed and many were wounded. Russia continued to concentrate on the electric grid. Iranian drones were used. Ukraine said it shot down 45 drones. It claims a 70% success rate in destroying drones. The tempe...

Budget decree issued: a deficit of transparency

HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jan 2023

Just as expected, the government issued its decree to amend the 2023 budget on December 29. However, the decree did not include the whole set of documents, which are usually delivered to parliament for the discussion of annual budgets. As they have said, the budget will be handed in for ex-post a...