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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The last charts of 2021
TURKEY · Report · 30 Dec 2021 · 1 response

In this last econ report of 2021, we share a few pictures --and a bit of text-- on the latest (macro) state of affairs. Growth has remained stronger than envisaged throughout the year, but inflation has surged, too, likely exceeding 30% in December. We think an abrupt slowdown in economic acti...

Season’s greetings from Rosstat: as the revised numbers suggest 2020 GDP contraction was not as deep as reported earlier, the 2021 dynamics will look better as well
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Dec 2021

Rosstat just reported that the 2020 GDP was higher in nominal terms, and contraction in real terms was not as significant as reported earlier - the new figure is 2.7% instead of 3.0%. Rosstat also revised up Russia’s GDP 2019 growth to 2.2% (from 2.0% reported earlier). Even though making such re...

​GULF WEEKLY: Covid and oil rebound, Kuwait forms government, Shell signs Oman gas deal
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Dec 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases have increased 10-fold in two weeks, particularly in the UAE, but deaths remain low. * Oil has rebounded to $79, partly due to supply problems, including in Libya (where elections were postponed). * There appe...

The 1-week depo rate ends the year at 4%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Dec 2021

The MNB held this year's last 1-week deposit tender today. On this occasion, it set the fixed interest rate for the tender at 4%, 20 bps up from last week's level. This was pretty much unsurprising, after exactly the same amount of increase a week ago.In total, the Bank has raised the 1-week depo...

Economic performance looks good in November, albeit high inflation in December disappoints
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, trade, transport, construction) increased y-o-y in November and 11M21 by 7.1% and 6.4%. This y-o-y growth in November looked strong due to stronger than expected production growth in agriculture (due to late harves...

Argentina ends 2021 in an economic quagmire
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 Dec 2021

The level of economic activity has recovered from Covid 19’s deep fall during 2020, and the rate of unemployment went down, restoring to the level of the third quarter of 2019. However, inflation is ending the year as high as in 2019. These macro indicators do not show the more worrisome aspect o...

Russian risk and domestic drama
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Dec 2021

All the diplomatic moves around tensions between Russia and Ukraine reaffirm our initial view that Vladimir Putin is just bargaining for concessions on the global level. Moscow is looking to increase its importance, but it’s highly improbable that the Russian president is prepared to become the n...

US-Russia summit scheduled for January 10
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2021

The meeting will take place in Switzerland and will be to discuss Ukraine. Moscow demands a legally binding promise that Ukraine shall never be admitted to NATO. The US has said that this is a non-starter.NATO has suggested a conference with Russia on January 12. The Organization for Security and...

GDP grew 25.5% in Q3, anticipating a double-digit growth rate for 2021, but challenges remain, including the pension reform and the GAFI review in February
PANAMA · Report · 29 Dec 2021

On December 17, INEC published the GDP results for the third quarter of 2021: a 25.5% growth rate compared to Q3 2020 (reporting nominal activity of US$16,167 million). During Q2, the real growth rate was 40.0%, following a decrease of 8.4% in Q1. Value added in Q3 was US$10,338 million or 14% ab...

Ending 2021 with cheers
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Dec 2021

The year 2021 was indeed a challenging year. The pandemic was not yet declared over, and the overhang led to continued uncertainty in the global economy. But in ending this year, Indonesia has seen some reasons to cheer. The first reason, as mentioned in our previous reports, is the amount of ...

Strong hi-tech service exports are shekel supportive, PC growth has moderated and is more balanced
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Dec 2021

Hi-tech service exports have increased sharply in October (3.5% m/m) following growth of 5.3% in September. Since the beginning of the year, hi-tech service exports (computer, IT, cyber, etc.) are up 22% y/y. This vibrant sector (10% of GDP), has supported shekel appreciation, economic growth and...

Kazakhstan seeks trade with the Taliban
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Dec 2021

On December 25 a Kazakh trade delegation visited Kabul. The visit on Christmas Day was nothing unusual as both countries are Muslim. The delegates negotiated on trade routes and political cooperation, according to the Taliban. There is a bid to establish a joint chamber of commerce. They discusse...

A sharp recovery in credit quality
INDIA · Report · 27 Dec 2021

Prior to the pandemic, a major problem in the economy was the credit stress of the large private financial and non-financial firms. A re-examination of an array of measures suggests that substantial gains have taken place. These are partly about the genuine superior performance of large priva...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 27 Dec 2021

*Russia has moved tens of thousands of troops towards Ukraine in a move that Russia says is unthreatening. *Russia has been building closer ties with China and South-East Asian countries. *Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries have been experiencing power cuts. *Azerbaijan and Arm...

The Labor market tightens, supportive of wage pressure
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Dec 2021

1. An increasingly tight labor market is expected to support wage pressure and therefore some inflationary pressure as well. 2. Economic indicators point to steady growth in early Q421, before the December Omicron concerns. 3. MSCI is likely to reclassify Israel in MSCI Europe (from...

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