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The market wants to hear good news - so let us give them some
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2022

Somehow it appears to us that the MNB has made a great deal of improvement in understanding and using psychology at recent times. This time around, it was a statement by vice governor Virág a few days ago, in which he said that among other stuff, the Monetary Council will discuss tomorrow the pro...

Kazakhstan ex-president's nephew
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2022

Kairat Satybaldy was sentenced to 6 years of imprisonment. He is also now forbidden from holding positions in the civil service or the National Bank or any company where the state owns over 50%. He was arrested in March 2022 and his sentence is counted as having started then. He is a major genera...

This is the last week before the election, the first round of the election will take place on Sunday, October 2, and TV Globo will hold the final presidential debate on Thursday, September 29.
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Sep 2022

This is the last week before the election. Advertising on radio and TV runs until Thursday, September 29. The same day, TV Globo will hold the final debate between the candidates for the Presidency of the Republic. So far, all the main candidates are likely to attend. This will be a decisive week...

Some signs of slowing growth could tilt the rate decision towards 0.5%
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Sep 2022

1. Recent economic indicators point to some growth deceleration, despite strong business confidence. 2. This soft data could tilt the next rate decision (Oct 3) towards a 0.5% hike, but 0.75% remains a strong possibility in light of global “frontloading”. 3. With inflation y/y likely to rem...

The current account surplus widens in 2Q22
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Sep 2022 · 1 response

The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported that the country’s current account surplus widened in 2Q22 and reached $4.135 bn. In 1Q22, it was at $2.512 bn. Hence this surplus reached $6.647 bn in 1H22. In 2021 the current account was in deficit each quarter, and its annual deficit was at $5.737bn. N...

Russian anti-draft protestors drafted
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2022

Since the mobilization of 300,000 reservists was announced on September 23 there have been protests in several Russian cities. The police have arrested protestors, and in the cases of young men, handed them draft notices. The police confiscate the passport of the detainee and then use the informa...

All about the ToS and reserves
TURKEY · Report · 25 Sep 2022 · 5 responses

CHP leader Kilicdaroglu slammed his fist on the table loudly, roaring that the buck stops there. He was reacting to endless sniping among members of the Table of Six (ToS) and growing doubts among pro-opposition intellectuals and media outlets about the capacity of the ToS to nominate a unified c...

Uzbekistan blocks Russian payment system
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2022

On September 23 the Central Asian country stopped the Mir payment card. Over half the Russian population holds such a card. Mir is accepted by Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Vietnam. It is thought that Uzbekistan stopped Mir because of the fear of secondary sanctions. Uzbekistan has...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2022

The decision to call referendums in Donbas and neighboring regions and the announcement of partial mobilization in Ukraine pushed the Russian financial market significantly lower. As a result, the yield for 10-year OFZ moved to double-digit territory, for the first time since the end of May, whil...

A race for gas in Europe
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Sep 2022

Europe’s short-term economic success currently hinges on to what extent and at what price the western side of the continent will be able to secure the amount of natural gas it needs for the upcoming winter. This is a fundamental political, growth and price stability issue at the same time, as gas...

Kazakhstan macro: navigating between Scylla and Charybdis
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Sep 2022

Even as Russia and a few other countries are heading toward a recession, Kazakhstan is doing relatively well this year – despite high inflation and some disruptions in the oil-and-gas sector caused by maintenance work in two main oil fields and problems with the CPC. The economic outlook looks de...

Three polls will be published today, Lula is unlikely to attend the debate tomorrow, and the STF begins judgment on whether the Difal can be collected this year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2022

The Datafolha poll published yesterday shows an increase in Lula's advantage over Bolsonaro. Lula rose from 45% to 47% and now has a 14-point advantage over Bolsonaro, according to the institute. The President remained stable at 33%. Ciro Gomes has 7%, and Simone Tebet, 5%. Lula is unlikely to at...

GULF WEEKLY: Rates hiked, MBS mediates Russia prisoner release, UAE and Oman GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states hiked interest rates by 75bp, bar Kuwait, which only raised by 25bp. * Oil slipped to the lowest since January despite a record shortfall in OPEC+ production. * There was no progress towards an Iran nuclear de...

Another 75-basis point repo rate increase by the South African Reserve Bank despite slowing inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Sep 2022

Staying its course of policy normalization, the South African Reserve Bank hiked the benchmark interest rate by another 75 basis points during the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) September meeting. With the repo rate climbing to 6.25% from 5.5%, the prime lending rate also increases, to 9.75% f...

Another 100 bps cut from the CBRT
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 100 bps to 12% (simple) today. While this wasn’t the consensus expectation, we are not terribly surprised, as we had given more than even odds to such a move (see last Sunday’s Tracker). The MPC statement is almost identical to the previ...

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