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At the moment, the government does not have the 308 votes needed to approve the PEC. The most controversial points — the value of R$ 168 billion and the 2-year term — continue to be problematic for legislators. The judgment of the rapporteur's amendments (RP-9) in the Supreme Federal Court (STF) ...

Belarus carries out combat readiness inspections

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2022

On December 13 Belarus announced the move. Ukraine is keeping an eye on the situation. It could be that Belarus is worrying Ukraine in order to oblige Ukrainians to guard their northern frontier and thereby take the pressure off the Russians in the east. Belarus did this earlier in 2022. Civilian...

2023 Forecast: Growth and Disinflation will Sputter

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 14 Dec 2022

Please note that we have changed the final sentence of the sixth paragraph of our section “License 41 in a nut shell” and we have also changed the final sentence before Table 2 in the “2023 Forecast” section. Compared with the last seven years, during which economic contraction was strong and...

Projections for 2023

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 12 Dec 2022

Before presenting the projections for 2023 (there’s no way to estimate numbers for 2024 with any security), we express two caveats. First, the GDP gap is still significantly positive (with the unemployment rate below the NAIRU), and this might require keeping the SELIC rate at 13.75% throughout 2...

Economics: Despite the multi-year fall in construction activity, a new footing is unlikely in the near term

MEXICO · Report · 12 Dec 2022

GDP results for the third quarter came in stronger than analysts had anticipated largely owing to a considerable expansion of services and an extension of manufacturing’s positive trend as some of the highest-value-added branches posted improved numbers. However, the construction industry remains...

Public spending accelerates, but deficit target seems intact

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 12 Dec 2022

The economy continues to slow, with 3.8% y/y growth in October 2022, 1 ppt lower than in September. Accumulated growth in January-October 2022 (5.2%) remains around the 5% potential level. Inflation saw its greatest reduction since April, with CPI rising 7.6% in November 2022, from November 2021....

Tax revenues decline in November, but level remains high

ISRAEL · Report · 12 Dec 2022

* November witnessed a sharp decline in tax revenues mostly due to technical reasons, although a widening deficit is expected next year. * Business sector sentiment points to steady and positive economic growth. * We expect November’s CPI to reach 0.2% m/m, at the high end of consensus.

Reassessing the odds of a pre-election “currency event”

TURKEY · Report · 09 Dec 2022 · 1 response

Since early this year one of the very key questions we’ve been focusing on has been the likelihood of another market turmoil à la December 2021 — or another “currency event”, so to speak — before the upcoming elections. As we approach the end of 2022, we thought it would be useful to offer a retr...

Another positive development as South Africa’s current account deficit narrows in Q3 2022

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Dec 2022

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2022, the deficit on South Africa’s current account narrowed from R107 billion in the second quarter to R18.1 billion. Relative to GDP, the current account deficit narrowed from 1....

Russia releases US basketball player

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2022

On December 8 Brittney Griner was freed as part of a prisoner exchange. She was arrested in February 2022 for possessing medical cannabis with a prescription. Russia does not recognize the legal validity of such prescriptions and gave her 9 years in jail. There are unconfirmed reports that the US...

CPI-inflation in November: would no negative surprise be a surprise now?

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Dec 2022

Monthly CPI-inflation data have kept surprising analysts on the negative side lately. And so it happened in November as well. The yoy headline rate rose to 22.5% from the 21.1% reported in October, whereas analysts expected only 22%. Once again, the main driver was food, where prices rose by an a...

Tax revenues decline in November but fiscal surplus maintained YTD

ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Dec 2022

November’s fiscal deficit was 1.2bn ILS (compared to 0.5bn in Nov 21), and the fiscal surplus reached 0.4% GDP in the last 12 months. Since the beginning of the year the fiscal surplus reached 28.9bn ILS. Tax revenues are up 14.8% y/y in Jan-Nov while non-Covid expenditure rose a modest 5.6%. Reg...

Secret opinion poll shows Russians support the war

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022

Polls in Russian run by the Levada Center and the state run VTsIOM show that around 75% of people are pro-war. Putin is keen to know the state of public opinion. Crafting it through media control is his obsession. On December 6 the Moscow Times claimed to have gained a copy of unpublished statist...

Inflation jumps in the first days of December due to the rise of regulated tariffs

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on December 5, inflation w-o-w jumped to 0.58%, an unprecedented level after months of deflation in the summer and slow inflation in October. It is not yet clear what the final inflation print in November will be (to be published on December 9). Though g...

The CCJ approved the report on the Transition PEC, the Senate should vote on the proposal today, and the STF may adjudicate the cases on the rapporteur’s amendments

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Dec 2022

Senator Alexandre Silveira's (PSD-MG) report on the Transition PEC increases the spending ceiling by R$ 145 billion for two years to pay for the Bolsa Família program and removes up to 6.5% of extraordinary revenues from the ceiling. The elected government is hoping to complete the vote in two ro...