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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The consequences come afterwards
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2025

GDP grew 0.4% in the second quarter, slightly above average forecasts, 0.3%, but on top of a revised expansion in the first quarter, from 1.4% to 1.3%, that is, broadly in line. Compared to the same period last year, growth reached 2.2%, accumulating 2.5% in the first half of the year and 3.2% ov...

Kazakhstan macro: reaching new local highs
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 03 Sep 2025

Recent weeks have been eventful: economic statistics showed improvement, and the Kazakh government released its medium-term macroeconomic forecast, outlining several key budget parameters for 2026 and beyond. However, the detailed 2026 draft budget was unavailable as of this writing. The National...

Little respite in August inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2025

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat higher than expected 2.0%, m/m, in August, with the 12-month rate easing modestly further to 33.0% from 33.5% in July. Monthly PPI inflation posted a 2.5% increase in the month, on the back of a marked increase in energy/electricity prices, as the 12-month rate ...

Israel launches Gaza ground offensive, raising growth and fiscal risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Sep 2025

Yesterday, some 40,000 reservists got emergency call-ups as Israel prepares for the “Chariots of Gideon II” operation. The plan is described as a step-by-step move to take control of Gaza. Most senior security officials opposed the government’s decision to start the operation. They preferred the ...

South Africa’s ongoing structural reforms provide some tailwinds to growth amid global uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 02 Sep 2025

• South Africa’s growth: The domestic economy began the year on a subdued trajectory, with underlying structural constraints persisting alongside intensifying global headwinds, including rising protectionist measures. Progress in implementing government’s structural reform agenda, particularly ...

Economics: The data published in August reflects an economy that remains weak
MEXICO · Report · 02 Sep 2025

Economic data published in August indicate that while the economy improved its performance in the second quarter and in July, it remains weak. Industrial activity continues to show a slight decline, and services, while experiencing relatively high growth, are seeing some sectors affected by lower...

The STF begins trial of Bolsonaro’s case, Lower House party leaders meet to vote on the week’s agenda, and the Senate may vote on two major bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2025

Today, the Supreme Federal Court begins the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état. This week, no justices are expected to cast their votes. In the Lower House, party leaders will meet to decide the week’s voting agenda. Lawmakers m...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Sep 2025 · 1 response

The Brazil Synthesis is a monthly overview of the Brazilian economy, with commentary and charts. The report begins with a timely topical overview, and charts provide a snapshot of the economy. Uncertainty is the name of the game Tarcísio strikes the right tone, the PCC suffers a setback: ...

Lula tests his electoral narrative and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2025

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) begins the trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état in 2022. President Lula launches the “People’s Gas” program, a reformulation of the “Gas for All” program. In the Lower House, the government pushes f...

Politics: Congress resumed on September 1, with no big surprises, as continuity is maintained with AMLO’s project
MEXICO · Report · 02 Sep 2025

The second year of the current congressional period of sessions began on September 1 with no big surprises. Morena legislators provided a sneak preview of its agenda. Apart from the 2026 economic package (revenue law and expenditure budget for 2026), there are no new significant issues on the go...

NBK holds the base rate; inflation accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Sep 2025

A few days ago, the National Bank of Kazakhstan kept the base rate unchanged, citing inflation remaining high in July (at 11.8%). The regulator acknowledged that inflationary pressure would remain elevated for the rest of the year and mentioned the possibility of future rate hikes. The NBK expect...

Not more of the same
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Sep 2025 · 1 response

Trump is reshaping pressure on Venezuela under an anti-drug narrative, designating the "Cartel of the Suns" a terrorist organization and deploying naval forces to the Caribbean. The pressure on Maduro is evident, though the U.S. government is not speaking of regime change. The military deployment...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2025

- Putin and Trump meet in Anchorage for a friendly but inconclusive summit. - Crises in Russian petroleum, agriculture and space industries; strikes on Russian refineries seek impact on population rather than armed forces. - Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan continue to crater. - Aze...

Higher than expected Q2 growth, fueled by stock changes
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Sep 2025

According to data announced by Turkstat, second quarter GDP growth markedly exceeded expectations, including of this author, in both sequential and annual terms, coming in at 1.6%, q/q, and 4.8%, y/y, respectively (Graph 1). As usual we briefly focus on the sequential data here, which reflects th...

An early and a brief start
TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2025

We’ve decided to end the summer holiday of our Sunday Weekly earlier than planned, with a very brief update on the latest political and economic developments. Turkey experienced the hottest August in at least 30 years, which triggered crop failures, forest fires, and general lethargy among cit...

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