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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The dance of solitude
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Dec 2024

The Copom minutes, a laborious document, revealed a worrisome view of inflation. In the Committee's words: "that a further deterioration in the inflation scenario has occurred, as reflected in inflation expectations and projections. It concluded that the shorter-term determinants – such as the...

Boluarte risks impeachment; growth likely to slow in 2025, with less policy stimulus
PERU · Report · 17 Dec 2024

In this forecast report, we cover three topics. First, we discuss possible political scenarios; then we discuss our 2025 forecasts for the economy, government finances and the balance of payments; and finally we discuss our market forecasts. Our forecasts generally project greater risk, partly ar...

Today's Monetary Council meeting went pretty much as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Dec 2024

Actually, it went almost exactly as analysts, nearly in unison, predicted on Portfolio.hu yesterday. 1. The base rate was kept unchanged at 6.5%. A 'great majority' of the Council voted for holding the rate, meaning that there was one vote for a small rate cut, just as it happened in November.2. ...

Robust economic growth mitigates fiscal risks
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 17 Dec 2024 · 1 response

Economic activity continued its roller coaster pattern in 2024, alternating between months of y/y growth below 5% and months above. Cumulative y/y growth remained at 5.1% on average from June to October. In November both headline inflation (3.18% y/y) and core inflation (3.47% y/y) remained wi...

Unless Gandalf casts a spell, peace prospects look dim
UKRAINE · Report · 17 Dec 2024

Two key questions are on the agenda: what U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will propose as a peace deal, and what the response will be if the proposed solution sacrifices Ukraine’s sovereignty. Any plan requiring Ukraine to recognize Russian-occupied territories or to compromise its sovereignty ...

Economics: 3Q and October employment numbers reveal deep downturn
MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2024

Employment numbers at the third quarter and October of this year continue reflecting the downturn that began in the second quarter, in line with the economic growth posted in the same period. Wages have experienced a very slight downturn, also since the second quarter, but continue to grow at rel...

The House may vote on the Tax Reform regulation bill today, the rapporteur of the fiscal package may submit his report on the bill, and the 2025 Budget may be put to a vote by the end of the week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Dec 2024

Yesterday, the Lower House concluded discussions on the regulation of Tax Reform. The vote is scheduled for today. Once approved, the text will proceed to presidential sanction. Today, Dep. Isnaldo Bulhões (MDB-AL), rapporteur for PL No. 4,614/24, may present his report on the text. According to ...

Strong fundamentals (CA surplus and FDI) remain shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Dec 2024

The current account improved in the 3rd quarter of 2024 reaching 5.5bn USD (SA) from 4.9bn in the previous quarter and 5.6bn in the 1st quarter. The net trade/service balance increased to 5.0bn from 4.2bn. Foreign direct investments in Israel reached 5.6bn in Q3 from 6.3bn in Q2. Portfolio invest...

What to Expect from the Monetary Policy Meeting
CHILE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2024 · 1 response

For the Monetary Policy Meeting (RPM), I remain undecided regarding the decision (50/50 between -25pb and no cut). Arguments in favor of a 25bp cut: Macroeconomic analysis indicates that the Central Bank has plenty of room to continue reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM). Market expectations a...

Russian macro: GDP growth, external balance stable as settlements in national currencies gain importance
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024

Rosstat recently provided additional color to its 3Q24 GDP growth flash estimate (3.1% y-o-y) published earlier, and the sectoral GDP production growth rates are now available. The 9M24 GDP increase was more impressive (4.1% y-o-y) than in 3Q24 alone. Rosstat also revealed that the seasonally adj...

Final week of congressional activity and related issues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024

The final week of congressional activity is packed with important issues: the fiscal adjustment package, Tax Reform, the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), and the 2025 Budget. The Central Bank will release the minutes from the latest Copom meeting, during which the committee decided to increase the ba...

Politics: Opposition parties elect new leaderships in bid to reverse falling fortunes
MEXICO · Report · 16 Dec 2024

Mexico’s opposition parties are in serious trouble on all levels following their disastrous performance in the June national elections. All are attempting to come to grips with their rejection by broad sections of the population –they only have the support of 15% of the electorate- promising int...

Bad moon rising
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024

Our fears, expressed in the September Quarterly Outlook, regarding the overheating of the economy, have materialized. Today, there are more signs that the economy is operating above its potential—a phenomenon acknowledged by the Central Bank itself. It revised its estimates of the output gap f...

Heavy policy agenda early this week
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2024

Here is a brief inventory: 1. The Finance Ministry will cease to exist on January 1, 2025. It will be merged into the Economy Ministry. The related draft law is in parliament now. No surprise at all, this has been long known to the public, together with the essentially certain consequence that mi...

What happened in the December Work Conference?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 16 Dec 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: - The December Central Economic Work Conference ended with a series of promises but was short on details. In itself that is not a surprise, as the conference rarely sets detailed policy, and mostly discusses growth targets and the direction of polic...

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