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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 17 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Sep 30
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Chile databank Sep 25
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 1
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Dominican Republic databank Sep 25
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Ecuador databank Sep 30
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 17
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Aug 28
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Sep 29
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Philippines databank Oct 8
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Poland databank Sep 29
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Oct 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: GOING INTO THE FIRST ROUND...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Economics: Labor data mirrors struggling economy
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2025
Employment remains in a clear slowdown that began last year and aligned with the weakening of the economy as a whole. The employed population decreased -0.2% yoy in the first quarter and then increased 0.2% in April, bringing the cumulative slippage for the first four months of the year to an ann...
The search for "endogenous" dollars
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Jun 2025
Argentina is a bi-monetary economy not because the peso and the dollar circulate with equal ease but because, to protect themselves against inflation, Argentineans have traditionally invested a large percentage of their wealth portfolios in US dollar instruments, including cash held in dollars th...
May inflation data due tomorrow, and some fiscal data reported
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2025
For headline CPI-inflation, analysts in Portfolio.hu's monthly poll expect 4.2% yoy, unchanged from April, as regards the median forecast recorded by the survey. For end-2025, the headline rate is expected to decrease to 3.9% yoy. We fully agree with this forecast for May, and also with the expec...
Tourism to Israel drops sharply in May amid missile threats and flight suspensions
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Jun 2025
Tourism to Israel declined sharply in May, as the number of incoming visitors fell by 25.4% compared to April (seasonally adjusted), reaching only 95,000 arrivals. This figure is 67.4% lower than in May 2023, underscoring the ongoing impact of the war. The decline follows a gradual recovery earli...
Turkish Politics: I know what you will have done this summer
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2025
Executive Summary: Fork in the road With the fall of Assad regime in Syria, Ocalan’s call for peace and the arrest of Imamoglu and several other CHP mayors, Turkey has truly reach a historic fork in the road. One path leads to a truce among rival parties and their respective constituencies, enshr...
Terror, uncertainty, paranoia
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 09 Jun 2025 · 2 responses
It is challenging to interpret the events unfolding in Colombia. There are many antecedents from a distant past that Colombians thought were behind us. Back in the early nineties, many presidential candidates were assassinated in Colombia by the dark forces of narco-trafficking and paramilitarism...
Politics: Judicial elections—a setback for democracy and success for the 4T’s authoritarian impulses
MEXICO · Report · 09 Jun 2025
Mexico’s first ever judicial elections were held on June 1. While they were significant for a variety of reasons, there were no big surprises. The elections were the concretization of Morena, AMLO, and Claudia Sheinbaum’s judicial reform, justified as a way of correcting the “country’s universall...
The nationalization of João Campos and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025
There is anticipation over the government’s submission to Congress of alternative measures to the IOF increase. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) continues its judgment on the liability of big tech platforms for third-party content posted on social media. The Court is also hearing depositions from ...
Can the bank of Jamaica declare Independence Day?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 09 Jun 2025
On Wednesday, May 21, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) made a surprise one-quarter point cut in the policy interest rate, namely the rate offered to deposit-taking institutions (DTI’s) on overnight placements, from 6 percent to 5.75. Justifying the cut, BOJ Governor Richard Byles noted that inflation co...
Some like it hot
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025
The labor market remains tight, as evidenced by the new drop in the unemployment rate in April, after three quarters of stability. Our estimates suggest that labor market-driven pressures are likely to persist for quite some time. Even considering the economic slowdown projected by the Centra...
Russian macro: abrupt economic deceleration prompts CBR’s decisive action
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025
In mid-May, Rosstat published its preliminary estimate of 1Q25 GDP growth of 1.4% y-o-y. In the aftermath of last year’s 4.3%, growth the 1Q25 number was not only unimpressive but also largely unexpected as public spending once again massively increased at the very end of December 2024, implying ...
Haddad announced a series of measures to offset the IOF increase, the STF will hear from defendants in the coup d’état case, and the STF will resume deliberations on the civil liability of internet platforms on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025
After a meeting with the Presidents of the Lower House, Hugo Motta, and the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) announced a series of measures to offset the increase in the IOF tax. The package was announced late Sunday night, June 8. This week, the Supreme Federal Cour...
Fitch affirmed their BBB/Stable sovereign debt rating on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2025
Just one week after the latest review by a Top-3 rating agency, Fitch Ratings affirmed their BBB/Stable mark on Hungary on June 6. The report was quite negative in the sense that it identified three key areas where the agency saw deterioration since their previous review: growth outlook, short-te...
Ukraine’s "Spiderweb" embarrasses Russia ahead of peace talks, could trigger a ballistic "Oreshnik" response
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2025
Report: Ukraine’s "Spiderweb" embarrasses Russia ahead of peace talks, could trigger a ballistic "Oreshnik" response Ukraine strikes Russian bombers, allegedly causing up to USD 7 bn in damage Russian domestic military commentators criticize security and intelligence failsPeace talks in Istanbul ...
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ accelerates taper, TSMC moots UAE gigafab, Qatar and Oman fiscal outturns
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jun 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ announced another 0.4m b/d production hike for July, but Brent rose to $66 on US-China talks. * Leaks of the US proposal to Iran suggested an enrichment compromise, contradicted by Trump. * Trump’s metal tariffs wil...