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GULF WEEKLY: Saudi hosts US-Russia talks and Trump at FII Miami, Qatar issues $3bn bonds and will graduate from the EMBI, HSBC exits Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Feb 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The first 2.5km section of The Line is planned to have 60 times the area of the Burj Khalifa and 200k residents. * New forecasts for the Saudi deficit this year include -2.7% of GDP (SNB) and -3.8% (Fitch). * Saudi Arabia...

The testimony of Bolsonaro’s former aid Mauro Cid has caused split reactions, next week the focus will be on the reconciliation meeting between the branches of government, and the House is expected to vote on two export bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Feb 2025

The release of videos featuring the testimony of former President Jair Bolsonaro’s former aide-de-camp, Mauro Cid, has sparked different reactions among government supporters and Bolsonaro’s allies. The pressure for Bolsonaro to signal whom he will support has intensified, but he continues to res...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Monetary policy in a wait-and-see mode in 2025
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Feb 2025

Inflation in the CCA space peaked in mid-2022 and has been on a steady downward trajectory through 1Q24, when it bottomed out. Some acceleration of price growth has gradually become ever more evident across the board since later in 2024, and I anticipate that momentum to entrench itself over the ...

Large 2024 deficit (7.35% of GDP) and commitment of MEF to reduce it to less than the 4.0% ceiling of the Fiscal Law
PANAMA · In Brief · 20 Feb 2025

Today, Minister Chapman presented the fiscal situation for the end of 2024 and perspectives for 2025. The deficit of the NFPS of 7.35% in 2024, above our estimate of 6.2% and above the 2.0% that the Fiscal Law established in the 2020 revision by Minister Alexander. The explanation is twofold: und...

The Senate installed its permanent committees, the government breathed a sigh of relief with the indictment of Bolsonaro, and Lula said there is no timeline for his cabinet reshuffle
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Feb 2025

The Federal Senate installed its permanent committees on Wednesday (February 19), electing their presidents. The government secured a major victory by placing allies in the presidencies of the CCJ and CAE. The government breathed a sigh of relief with the charges filed by the Prosecutor General’s...

No breakthrough in the "Year of Breakthroughs". Is there disinflation?
POLAND · In Brief · 19 Feb 2025 · 1 response

Governments ambitious (?) investment plans This text borrows from an article that Jan Hagemejer published with CASE's Andrzej Robaszewski on Monday in a Polish leading newspaper – Rzeczpospolita. Introduction On February 10, 2025, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk unveiled an economic plan titled...

Inflation jumped in January
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Feb 2025

CPI-inflation started the year with a big upward adjustment in January, on a cyclical pickup of agricultural prices, the decent strength of consumer demand and the impact of the weak forint on import prices. The size of this change genuinely surprised the MNB and analysts, even though its directi...

South Africa’s economic potential improves, but emerging headwinds amid new geopolitical dynamics could pose a risk
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 19 Feb 2025

• Bonds: The South African bond market in 2024 was marked by heightened volatility, reflecting both domestic economic conditions and global financial pressures. As such, the year saw substantial fluctuations in net bond purchases. Yet, the successful formation of the Government of National Unity ...

Bolsonaro has been indicted by the PGR for attempting a coup d’état, a recent poll shows that the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro continues, and legislative activities will remain slow until after Carnival
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Feb 2025

Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has been indicted by the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR) for attempting a coup d'état after the 2022 elections. Bolsonaro has also been charged with the crimes of violent abolition of the Democratic Rule of Law and criminal organization. A poll published yes...

What does Xi’s meeting with entrepreneurs signal for the private sector?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Feb 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - Economic data releases in China tend to be skimpy in the first two months of every year, mainly because the floating Spring Festival date (from late January to mid-February) distorts economic activity and makes year-on-year and month-on-month comp...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Feb 2025

Feb 6 Prime minister: Kazakhstan gives priority to localization of production and technology transfer when choosing vendors for nuclear power plant construction. Feb 7 Fitch: The agency confirms the QazaqGaz rating at BB+ with a "stable" outlook. NBK: Demand for gold bars from private individuals...

Revised 2023-2024 macro data show steady growth, but things could change this year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Feb 2025

According to Rosstat’s flash estimate, the country’s GDP grew by 4.1% and reached R200,039.5 bln, implying it climbed to $2,155 bln in dollar terms. Both the nominal figure and the growth rate appeared slightly higher than we anticipated—not least due to revisions of the historical data. We expec...

Election campaign heats up; economy grew 3.2% in 2024; new finance minister appointed; BCRP extends pause
PERU · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

In this report, we discuss indications that the election campaign will be brought forward; improved economic performance, resulting in real GDP advancing 4.9% in December and 3.3% in full-year 2024; the appointment of José Salardi as Economy and Finance Minister; and the decision by the BCRP’s Bo...

Economics: Year-end results confirm the latest episode in the ongoing deterioration of public finances, with no end in sight
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

A profound deterioration of public finances played out in 2024, as we had anticipated as far back as when we analyzed the economic package projected for last calendar year that was published in September 2023. The year 2024 brought troubling trends in revenue, as well as in the degree of growth a...

Actions out of touch with reality and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Feb 2025

Negotiations over the Ministerial Reform are ongoing. In both the Lower House and the Senate, leaders are working toward an agreement on the leadership of standing committees, which are expected to be installed after Carnaval. President Lula may meet with leaders of the agency Ibama to discuss oi...

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