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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Senate may vote on the tax reform bill, the government has committed to paying the parliamentary fund transfers tomorrow, and the Copom raised the basic interest rate (Selic)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Dec 2024

The Senate floor may vote today on the bill regulating tax reform. The proposal was approved yesterday by the Constitution and Justice Committee. The government has committed to beginning the parliamentary fund transfers on Friday. If this promise is kept, critical items on the political and econ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Dec 2024

Nov 27 President: Kazakhstan remains a reliable strategic partner and ally of Russia. Budget: The Parliament of Kazakhstan approved the law "On the Republican Budget for 2025-2027". The 2025 budget deficit is set at 2.7% of GDP, with a decrease in 2026-2027 to 2.2% and 1.9% of GDP, respectively. ...

Highlights of yesterday's speech by President Milei
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Dec 2024

Yesterday, December 10th, 2024, President Javier Milei addressed the Nation on the occasion of the first anniversary of his government. It was a 37-minute speech broadcast on national radio and television in which, instead of highlighting this year's achievements, which were many, he focused on t...

Syria post-Assad: outlook and implications for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Dec 2024 · 1 response

* While there is plenty to worry about, Syrians are celebrating the end of a brutal regime. * HTS has become the dominant force in much of Syria, but the balance with other groups is unclear. * HTS made encouraging pronouncements, including about minorities, women and non-retribution. * The gr...

The government continues to negotiate the fiscal package in the House, the Paten bill was approved in the Senate, and the Copom is expected to announce the new basic interest rate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2024

The government continues negotiating in the Lower House to secure a vote on the fiscal package. Yesterday, the President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), acknowledged that the package is controversial and faces substantive resistance from lawmakers. In the Senate, the bill instituting the Energ...

The political consequences of President Lula's health
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2024

President Lula's health, following a delicate surgery, raises reflections on the institutional and political implications across different scenarios. In this report, we analyze the potential consequences in cases of temporary or permanent replacement of the President, including scenarios of the p...

Lula underwent surgery last night and is in the ICU, Braga submitted his report on Tax Reform, and the Senate Economic Affairs Committee will hold confirmation hearings for the appointments to the Central Bank
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2024

President Lula underwent surgery in São Paulo on Monday night, December 9, after experiencing headaches. The surgery went well, and Lula is now being monitored in an ICU bed. This development could potentially impact Congress’s agenda. Yesterday, Senator Eduardo Braga released his report on the b...

CPI-inflation accelerated in November, but core inflation data still looks quite favorable
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Dec 2024 · 1 response

The headline rate of CPI-inflation rose to 3.7% yoy in November, from 3.2% yoy in the previous month, on a 0.5% increase in the CPI in November alone. However, core inflation was only 0.3% mom, 4.4% yoy, the latter moving marginally downwards, from 4.5% yoy in October. The headline rate rose esse...

The fiscal package will likely undergo changes and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2024 · 1 response

The Senate may conclude the vote on a bill regulating the Tax Reform. The House is also reviewing three appointments for the Central Bank. Meanwhile, the House is focusing on analyzing bills within the government’s fiscal adjustment package, which is expected to have a fiscal impact of R$70 billi...

The federal budget deficit is near zero in 11M24 but will soar in December
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2024

The Finance Ministry reported that in 11M24, federal budget revenues reached nearly R32.7 and moved steadily toward the annual target of R36.1 trln last month. In November alone, they attained almost R3.5 trln. Both the oil-and-gas (O&G) and the non-O&G revenues exceeded the 11M23 level by about ...

Economics: Questions raised about the feasibility of strategic plans for the energy sector
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2024

The strategic plans presented by the Federal Government for both Pemex and CFE are insufficient to deal with the structural challenges they face. Pemex is plagued by significant accumulated losses caused by segments such as its Transformación Industrial subsidiary, for which no specific measures ...

The Battle of Expectations
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Dec 2024

Since the last Copom meeting, the inflationary outlook has worsened due to deteriorating inflation expectations, currency depreciation, and the persistence of strong economic activity and labor market, stressing the output gap. As a result, BCB’s inflation forecast for the relevant monetary polic...

This is the second-to-last week of the legislative year, Braga is looking to reduce resistance to his text in the House, and the Copom will meet for the last time this year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2024

The second-to-last week of activity in the National Congress comes with a packed agenda. Braga is negotiating with the Lower House to make adjustments to the text, aiming to reduce resistance to the changes introduced by the Senate and ensure the vote is finalized this year. To meet this timeline...

Politics: Sheinbaum moves to address Trump’s threats to Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2024

Even before taking office, US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies toward Mexico indicate a hard-core stance that could potentially inflict considerable harm on the country’s economy. While not coming as a surprise given his past performance and the promises made to his base during the recent ...

Cautious geopolitical optimism fuels markets
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Dec 2024

1. Cautious geopolitical optimism continues to fuel Israeli markets. 2. The business sector is reporting a modest acceleration in activity. 3. Low inflation expectations following January’s CPI print will support a rate cut in April 2025 and three cuts in all of 2025.

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