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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Israel’s risk premium continues to decline
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Dec 2024

Geopolitics: There has been some good news on several fronts, but uncertainty remains elevated. Firstly, the ceasefire in the North is holding up, nearly two weeks after implementation. Secondly, ceasefire negotiations appear to be more tangible with Hamas (although we have been there before). Th...

Wow! Fitch Ratings has raised to Stable from Negative the outlook on its BBB rating for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Dec 2024

This rating action was exactly the opposite of what Moody's implemented just one week ago. We are happy, of course, but also close to being entirely speechless. In hindsight, it is most likely that Fitch raised its outlook now because Hungary had been on negative outlook for almost two years, whi...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Did Georgian Dream push its luck by suspending EU accession talks?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Dec 2024

Just as the post-election environment was getting calmer and the opposition looked dejected and lost, the new government (and Georgian Dream) decided to let the genie out of the bottle by springing the surprise decision to suspend EU accession talks until 2028. This only invigorated the oppositio...

Policy choice and monetary expansion behind the tenge’s recent unintended (albeit healthy) correction
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 Dec 2024

Earlier this week, the Ministry of Finance published the 11M24 statistics on the National Fund’s revenue flow and expenditures. The ministry mentioned that since the beginning of the year, the fund’s assets grew from KZT29.854 trln as of January 1 to KZT33.261 trln as of December 1. It means that...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ slows its taper, PMIs surge in KSA and Kuwait, Syrian rebels capture Aleppo and Hama
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Dec 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ reduced 2025 taper plans by 1m b/d and extended cuts into 2026, but the market shrugged. * Participating GCC states will increase output in 2025 by a third of what was previously planned. * Gulf leaders met in Kuwai...

The Joint Budget Committee will meet to review the 2025 Budget, Braga should submit his report to the CCJ on Monday, and the Copom will hold its final meeting of the year to decide on the basic interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Dec 2024

This morning, the Joint Budget Committee will meet to review the Revenue Report and the Preliminary Opinion on the 2025 Budget. The Senate's Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) has scheduled for this Monday the analysis of the supplementary bill (PLP 68/24) that regulates Tax Reform (Constit...

Webinar replay - Latin America in 2025: How worried should we be?
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Dec 2024

2024 was a volatile year for Latin America. Domestic political risks and fiscal risks in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia compounded a complicated external environment. How challenging will 2025 be? What risks does the second Trump US presidency present for Mexico? How will increasing uncertainty im...

Good monthly output and demand data for October, at last
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2024

Following a series of poor monthly output and demand figures of late, pretty good numbers were reported by KSH for October in the last two days. Retail sales were up by 1.2% mom, 3.7% yoy, bringing the cumulative ten-month expansion for this year up to 2.8% yoy. This came after a disappointing -1...

South Africa’s current account remains broadly unchanged in Q3-2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Dec 2024

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2024, the deficit on South Africa’s current account narrowed from R75.3 billion in the second quarter to R70.8 billion. Relative to GDP, however, the current account deficit remain...

The reading of Braga’s report on the Tax Reform regulation bill has been postponed, the MDB announced its support for Alcolumbre for Senate president, and the House approved an urgent status for two bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2024

The reading of Senator Eduardo Braga's (MDB-AM) report on the bill regulating Tax Reform has been postponed to next Monday. The vote, as announced by the president of the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ), Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), has been scheduled for Wednesday, December 11. The Senat...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2024

The FX market volatility soared in the past two weeks. It was high enough earlier in November, hovering between 5% and 10%. However, at the beginning of December, it jumped to 20%. Sanctions against 52 Russian banks, introduced at the end of last month, brought some complications to the tradition...

The foreign exchange market in the Milei era
ARGENTINA · Report · 05 Dec 2024

This is the second report in a trilogy whose main purpose is to make sense of current market optimism while raising awareness of the risks market participants will face between now and the October 2025 midterm election. The first report dealt with inflation and whether it had converged with a lev...

Bonilla asked to leave at a crucial juncture
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Dec 2024

In light of the accusations regarding Finance Minister Bonilla’s involvement in mishandling public funds to obtain favors from Congress, President Petro asked for his resignation. In the afternoon hours of December 4th, Mr. Bonilla has agreed to do so. The timing could not be worse. The Financing...

More Of The Same
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2024

GDP growth in the third quarter of the year slightly exceeded expectations, at 0.9%, compared to the second quarter, against analysts' median estimate of 0.8%, with no major revisions to the most recent data. However, 2023 growth was revised upward to 3.2% from the initial estimate of 2.9%. Sh...

Congress won in ill-advised regional transfers plan
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Dec 2024

Q3 2024 growth at 2% was low in y/y terms, although higher than population growth, the lowest threshold to keep Colombia from getting poorer. Many things stand out. First, there is a base effect, because 2023 GDP growth was low, at -0.6% during Q3, and a very disappointing 0.6% for the year. Seco...

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