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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Protests rock Georgia amid institutional crisis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024

- Georgians continue protesting two weeks since the PM announced the suspension of EU accession negotiations until 2028. - The new president was elected under the new system, unrecognized by the previous president and the political opposition. - As the crisis continues and the EU cuts ties, ...

Rule of (martial) law
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Dec 2024

En route to Maduro’s inauguration on 10 January 2025, the government is preparing for possible violence by passing draconian laws that legalize repression and virtually eliminate all space for public protest. It’s setting up permanent martial law. A recent exchange of moderating gestures betwe...

Downside inflation surprise but rental prices accelerate
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Dec 2024

1. November’s downward inflation surprise is expected to increase the likelihood of a first rate hike in early Q2 2025 (or possibly end-Q1 2025). 2. Inflation in 2025 will be mostly due to the government's fiscal adjustments, while easing supply constraints and a strong shekel will push inflat...

Low inflation in November, but rental prices accelerate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Dec 2024

Geopolitics: Israel’s geopolitical situation has greatly improved, following the ceasefire in Lebanon, the end of the Assad regime (breaking the flow of armaments from Iran to Hezbollah), and the weakening of Iran in the region (having lost an important ally in Syria). Focus is now turning to pre...

Slide presentation - Outlook for Colombia: Does all this add up?
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Dec 2024

Get insight into the outlook for Colombia's growth, monetary and fiscal policy, and the positioning so far for the 2026 presidential election. Which industries are driving growth, and can they maintain momentum into year-end? What are the prospects for monetary policy into 2025? What is the poten...

Economic growth accelerated in November amid soaring government spending and credit growth
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Dec 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics started publishing November monthly statistics and suggested that economic growth accelerated on a y-o-y basis as the short-term indicator (a monthly measure of aggregate economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communi...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi World Cup, UAE to tax multinationals 15%, Oman may postpone income tax, Saudi and Qatar GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Dec 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC again reduced its 2024-25 oil demand forecasts, which are still far higher than the IEA. * The UAE has reportedly sharply cut oil allocations for Q1, possibly to comply with its quota. * Britain's PM visited UAE and ...

Inflation in 2025 will hinge on oil prices
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Dec 2024

Our inflation and exchange rate forecasts for the remainder of 2024 and for 2025 rest on the assumption that the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will hold to its crawling peg regime that began in mid-October. It will not revert to an exchange rate peg. Restrictive fiscal and monetary policies ...

The Senate approved the Tax Reform regulation bill, next week is the last week before Congress recesses, and Lula is expected to return to Brasilia after undergoing surgery in São Paulo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2024

The Senate voted on the bill that regulates Tax Reform. Since changes were made, the text must return to the Lower House for further review. The bill's rapporteur, Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), expanded benefits for companies located in the Manaus Free Trade Zone and introduced objective criter...

Russian-supported Syrian government collapses—an analysis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2024

- Jihadi HTS broke its ceasefire, leading to the fall of the Assad regime in less than two weeks. - Russia’s Mediterranean naval base in Tartus, the air bridge for Africa Corps and Russia's international credibility are all at stake. - Russia is not antagonizing Erdogan despite blatant Turki...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: 2025 CCA Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Forecast · 13 Dec 2024

2025 will bring lower GDP growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia, although the moderation in the pace of economic activity will be limited. We forecast average GDP growth to ease from an estimated 6.8% in 2024 to 5.5% in 2025, which will still be slightly above the previous decade's (2014-2023) ...

We are still here
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Dec 2024

The Central Bank not only raised the interest rate by 1 percentage point—against a majority, albeit not unanimous, expectation among analysts of a 0.75 percentage point hike—but also committed itself to two additional hikes of the same magnitude in upcoming Copom meetings. This decision was made ...

Easing cycle ends: NBU raises prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 13.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Dec 2024

The NBU Board has raised the prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 13.5%, effective December 13, marking the end of the easing cycle that began in July 2023. The primary reason for this decision was the acceleration of consumer inflation, which exceeded the 10% threshold (+1.9% m/m and +11.2% y/y in November)...

Balance of payments: no surprise in 11M24 amid the economy’s overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2024

The CBR published its flash estimate of the 11M24 balance of payments, and no major surprise was on the table. In 11M24, the current account surplus reached $57.4 bln as the trade balance widened to $118.6 bln. Exports accounted for $386.0 bln, while imports climbed to $267.5. In November alone, ...

All seems fine on the BOP front
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2024

The current account recorded a $1.9 billion surplus in October, notably better than expectations of around a $1.3 billion surplus, compared with broad balance in the same month of last year, which, incidentally, marked the fifth consecutive month of surplus in the current account.

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