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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The link between EU's ORD and ÁKK/MNB policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 May 2021

On May 27, the EU Commission announced the approval of its Own Resources Decision (ORD) by all 27 member state parliaments. ORD will enable the EU to collect from member states annual fiscal contributions up to 2% of GNI, instead of the maximum 1.4% allowed so far, with a view to generating the r...

Pakistan and Russia agree a pipeline
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 May 2021

On May 28 the Ministry of Energy announced that a deal on a natural gas pipeline to be called Flagmanaskim has been signed. It will be a 1 100 km long and will carry 12.3 billion cubic meters per year. The pipeline will pass through Karachi to the port of Gwadar. Some gas will be used by Pakistan...

Slowdown, and clashes over corruption
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 May 2021 · 1 response

The number of daily COVID-19 cases in Costa Rica has been rising since April. The government announced tighter restrictions to limit the spread of the virus, and to address a possible saturation of the public health system. These actions will definitely slow economic activity in May-June, and aff...

It’s not getting any better here
TURKEY · Report · 28 May 2021

As we’ll be extremely tied up over the weekend with one of us traveling, we’ve decided to issue our Weekly today. The ongoing revelations by Mafia boss Sedat Peker marks the Final Act in Erdogan’s reign, according to our political analyst, because he missed the chance to quash them by sacking ...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: going with the flow
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 May 2021

After a steady decline in early 2021, Russia’s daily infection cases descended in mid-March to below 10K, but there has been little progress since then. Daily cases have been hovering mostly between 8K and 9K, albeit occasionally exceeding the lower and the upper boundary of this band. It was a s...

Administrative Reform approved in the CCJ, Dimas Covas criticizes the government in the COVID CPI and the the rapporteur for the privatization of Eletrobras may be chosen next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2021

The Administrative proposal is progressing well in Congress. The next step of analysis – the creation of the Special Committee – may occur in the next few days. The COVID CPI approved the request to summon governors and mayors, shifting the focus away from the federal government. The provisional ...

Snakes and ladders
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 28 May 2021

Tracking the Philippine economy’s progress under the Covid-19 pandemic is like watching a game of Snakes and Ladders. In the board game that originated in India, the race to the diagonal opposite of the board through a series of ladders to win the game can be thwarted by a throw of the die that l...

​GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi issues bonds, Omanis protest, Iranian candidates culled
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 May 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Coronavirus cases ticked up again across the Gulf, reversing a declining trend in most states. * Iran’s election has become a one-horse race, but this should facilitate a JCPOA deal soon. * Qatar pledged $500m to rebuild ...

Russian online video major received USD 250 million funding
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 May 2021

On May 25 Ivi's funding round received the funds from Russian state and private investors. The deal is one of the largest funding rounds in Russian tech in the last 10 years. It is also the biggest in the online streaming market.The investors are VTB Bank, Russian Direct Investment Fund, AG Inves...

6 Armenian soldiers captured by Azerbaijan as tensions rise
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 May 2021

On May 27 Azerbaijan seized the enemy soldiers on the ceasefire line. Armenia is holding elections in June 2021. The uptick in tensions could affect the outcome. There were shooting incidents earlier this week and one Armenian was killed.Armenia called for international observers to be placed on ...

​OMAN: Unemployment protests are heated but the fiscal response is more muted
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 May 2021

Unemployment protests this week have spurred the announcement of a package of employment measures by the government. However, it only totals around 0.5% of GDP, spread over two years, and is not yet too concerning for Oman's fiscal consolidation efforts, which should be well ahead of budget this ...

Sen. Rodrigues tried to summon President Bolsonaro to the CPI, Dimas Covas testifies in the CPI and private sector worried about Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 May 2021

A request to summon President Bolsonaro was denied in the COVID CPI. The Constitution implies that the President of Brazil cannot be summoned by a committee of Congress. The CPI should summon governors and mayors next week. A graudal approach to Tax Reform worries the private sector about increas...

Tourists allowed into Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 May 2021

On May 26 Putin stated that tourists can come to Russia and remain for 6 months if they have hotel bookings. This applies to all nationalities. This will be music to the ears of the tourism industry. However, many countries will quarantine their citizens if they have been to Russia and returned h...

Ukraine bans flights to or from Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 May 2021

As of May 26 Ukraine will not allow its airliners to fly over Belarussian airspace nor shall it allow Belarussian airliners to enter Ukraine's airspace. This is in response to Belarus forcing a Ryanair flight to land in Minsk so that a journalist on board could be arrested. Belarus' only air corr...

Extraordinary growth in economic activity in April 2021
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 26 May 2021

Today the Central Bank disclosed that the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity grew 47.1% in April 2021 compared to April 2020. This expansion not only made it possible to reverse the drastic year-on-year drop of 29.8% experienced in April 2020 but also exceed the level of pre pandemic economic...

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