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Forecasting in a time of Knightian uncertainty
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2022

Given the extremely fluid and uncertain backdrop, we mainly focus on the very near term and share some illustrative forecasts, in a Q&A format, postponing our flagship quarterly/forecast report to later this month, with our deepest apologies. Contrary to numerous accounts accusing Turkey of be...

Private consumption rebounds in early 2022
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Apr 2022

Consumer spending has accelerated Credit card purchases increased by 1.8% m/m (in real terms) in February, following 2% in January as the Omicron impact dissipates. Chain store sales declined by 1% in January-February as consumer spending shifts more towards spending on services. This follows a 4...

The 39th day of war: mass grave of executed civilians in Bucha
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Apr 2022

Shock and fury. Russians withdrew from Bucha and Hostomel, two satellites of Kyiv which faced the hottest fights in the battle for Kyiv. But little joy was derived from this withdrawal. The horrors Ukrainian soldiers saw when they entered the towns would make you shudder. Corpses of civilians wit...

US gives another USD 300 million in security assistance to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Apr 2022

On April 1 the US said this includes laser-guided rocket systems, drones, armored vehicles, night vision goggles, ammunition and medicines. The US emphasized its ''unwavering commitment to Ukraine.''Zelensky was sounding downbeat a week ago - as though Ukraine could not hold out much longer. This...

GULF WEEKLY: S&P positive on Saudi, OPEC+ tapers slowly, Q4 GDP for Qatar and Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Apr 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ stuck with its standard taper and didn’t apply the new baselines for Gulf states. Meanwhile, the US announced a record strategic oil reserve release. * Ukraine’s president addressed the Doha Forum, and Mubadala will p...

India's current account deficit records a sharp surge
INDIA · In Brief · 01 Apr 2022

India's current account deficit widened to nine year high of USD 23 billion in the October-December quarter of 2021-22. Expressed in terms of GDP, the current account deficit surged to 2.7 percent of GDP. In the previous quarter (July-September), the current account deficit was USD 9.9 billion, a...

Ten government ministers left office to run in the October elections, the party window closes today, and the Senate will analyze official appointments next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2022

Minister Braga Netto has left the Ministry of Defense and is currently the most likely candidate to run as Vice President for President Jair Bolsonaro. Sérgio Moro announced his departure from the Podemos to join the União Brasil and said that, at the moment, he is giving up on his presidential c...

​Markets are too optimistic, but mainly due to technical reasons
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2022

The Russian markets were traded in an optimistic mood this week. The ruble appreciated from R/$96 to 80 as markets reacted positively to the decision of the Russian authorities to switch gas payments to rubles. Meanwhile, in reality, it may have only a marginal effect - if implemented. The main r...

Ukraine attacks Russian territory
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2022

On March 30 Ukrainian helicopters attacked a fuel storage facility in Belgorod. Two people were injured and none killed. A fire destroyed tonnes of fuel. The governor of the region confirmed this on his Telegram channel. This is the first time that the Ukrainian military has crossed the border in...

Russia political/pandemic update: the changing quarantine regime
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2022

Ever since the Russian president launched a special mission in Ukraine, Russia became quite quickly disconnected from many countries. Meanwhile, Russia’s daily COVID-19 incidence rate fell sharply from around 200K in mid-February to around 20K by the end of March. Given that Russia was almost com...

​Inflation y-o-y to reach 20% soon and erode domestic demand
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Mar 2022

Rosstat reported that inflation w-o-w in seven days ending on March 25, reached 1.16%. Prices keep rising across the board. Inflation MTD and YTD reached 6.60% and 8.91% while y-o-y figure moved up to 15.66% as estimated by the Economics Ministry. Inflation w-o-w moderated but it is likely that i...

Guatemala: Robust growth to gradually fade
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Mar 2022

For second year in a row, Guatemala´s performance has been better than that of its regional partners. The economy showed strong growth, good external accounts, a notable improvement in the fiscal area and stable macro prices. Room for a second rebound will fade in 2022 and disappear in 2023. Guat...

The government is considering providing a 5% raise for all public servants, the resignations of nine ministers were published in the Official Gazette today, and João Doria may decide not to run for president
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2022

Through the Forum of Entities of the Federal Servants (Fonasefe) and the Forum of Typical Careers of the State (Fonacate), employees of the executive, legislative and judicial branches organized a demonstration in Brasilia in favor of a salary raise. The 5% raise will depend on the pressure from ...

The war becomes protracted amid growing support of the war in Russian society
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Mar 2022

The 36th day of war. We do not see any big changes at the front except the continued reallocation of Russian forces to Donbas and to the South East of Ukraine. To the North of Kyiv a big group of the Russian military is staying in operational encirclement. The Russians also withdrew from the Nort...

The Evergrande bank heist
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 31 Mar 2022

Chinese banks took control of $2 billion of Evergrande cash held by Evergrande Property Services, a unit of Evergrande. Surprisingly, the company expressed confusion about the transfer and said it is “investigating” how the banks claimed the funds. What does this tell us about China’s economy as ...

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