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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Schrödinger’s Turkey
TURKEY · Report · 16 May 2021

The politics section starts with the bold assertion that Turkey is no longer Erdogan’s country, which means that a new set of tools are required to analyze its politics and the economy, as Erdogan’s power on the state and sway over the voters, eclipse. We present evidence from polls seconding thi...

Oil spill in north Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2021

On May 13 an oil spill in the Komi Republic led to a state of emergency being declared in the area. 7 tons of crude spilled into rivers and onto the land. A pipeline accident at a facility run by Lukoil was probably the cause of this.The pipeline connected the Oshkoye oil field to a storage facil...

Rosneft makes a profit again
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2021

On May 14 the Russian oil major announced that it turned a profit in Q1 2021. Russia's deal with OPEC led to this rosy news. The parastatal company made a net profit of USD 2 billion. It made a loss of over USD 2 billion in Q1 2020.Several other oil companies have turned profits due to an uptick ...

Russia declares USA and Czechs to be ''unfriendly''
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2021

On May 14 Moscow gave a new designation to the Czech Republic and the United States. They also forbade the USA from hiring any Russians at their embassy. The Czechs are banned from hiring over 19 Russians in their embassy.The US Embassy in Moscow is offering consular services to US citizens until...

​The formally approved 2021 Russian budget is likely to be balanced
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 May 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that the oil-and-gas revenues soared on a m-o-m basis and reached R893 bn in April 2021 (versus monthly average R540bn in 1Q21). This increase could be partially explained by lagged effects of the increased oil price earlier in the year. A bit weaker ruble in April a...

CPI testimony this week did not reflect well on the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2021

Yesterday in the COVID Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI), the former director of Pfizer in Brazil detailed the laboratory’s offer of vaccines to the Brazilian government. He confirmed that the Brazilian government’s response was delayed, and ultimately the government missed out on a few mi...

​GULF WEEKLY: Omani spending rises, solid Saudi Q1 GDP, Israel normalization tested
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 May 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The worst Israeli-Palestinian conflict since 2014 presents a challenge to Gulf-Israel normalization. * US-Iran talks entered a critical phase, just two weeks before Iranian electioneering begins. * Saudi Arabia confirmed ...

Interest rates and shadow banking in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 May 2021

China is attempting to reduce risk in the financial system. This includes controlling monetary policy and interest rates. However, the substantial participation of shadow banking in total capital flows – ranging from heavily regulated to lightly regulated forms – means that Beijing has a limited ...

​Lockdown watch (6)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 May 2021

Metro Manila and 4 nearby provinces (NCR+) will revert to general community quarantine (GCQ) tomorrow, May 15, although “heightened restrictions” will apply. The decision to follow only incremental lifting of restrictions reflects on the one hand, the continued downtrend in covid19 cases over the...

​Minfin doesn’t rule out buyback of floating-rate OFZs
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 May 2021

Today deputy Finance Ministry Mr Maximov said that the government is considering the launching of special tools to manage structure of sovereign debt. In particular, he mentioned that the current amount of floating-rate OFZs in circulation looks excessive and it would be reasonable to decrease it...

An eventful day in yesterday's Covid CPI testimony, and Administrative Reform to be analyzed in committee
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2021

The COVID Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the Senate had one of its most eventful days yet yesterday. During former Secretary of Government Communication Fábio Wajngarten’s testimony, Senator Renan Calheiros, rapporteur of the CPI, asked that he be arrested. However, the president of ...

Russia struggles with inflation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 May 2021

On May 13 the PM laid into businesses for driving inflation up due to excessive profits. He said the government might have to take measures to cap prices. He accused business of avarice. The recovery is in jeopardy and the Kremlin is worried about the impact of inflation on the fall 2021 election...

Putin's Ukrainian ally charged with high treason
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 May 2021

On May 11 Viktor Medvedchuk was charged with treason along with Taras Kozak. Both men are politicians for a political party called Opposition Platform for Life. Medvedchuk has been subject to sanctions by his own government since February 2021 on suspicion of funding terrorism. Medvedchuk's home ...

Claim of Unconstitutionality of New Education Bill
ECUADOR · In Brief · 12 May 2021

The Constitutional Court received yesterday a claim of unconstitutionality of the new education bill. The claim brilliantly explains the legal violations this bill exhibits and also provides a complete and fair explanation of its negative fiscal and economic implications. This claim was submitted...

Strategic regime moderation
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 May 2021

Maduro’s government has signaled a major shift in stance and strategy in the last several weeks. Most importantly, it agreed to a legal process for renewing the five-member board of the National Electoral Council that resulted in the designation of two opposition-aligned members. Maduro has al...

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