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Country Insights

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Concrete Results Urgently Needed
MEXICO - Report 15 Jul 2013
Executive Summary This week we are dedicating our Political Outlook section entirely to the results of the most recent quarterly survey of voter opinion conducted by GEA-ISA, entitled “Mexico: Politics, society and change.” One of the most striking aspects of the most recent poll was the consider...

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A Cooling Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 15 Jul 2013
Three indicators point to cooling of the Brazilian economy: those for the labor market, industrial output and monthly GDP (IBC-Br). Brazil’s industrial production has not grown since 2010. The main reason for this stagnation is the rising unit labor cost. Despite clear signs of a weakening of the...

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A Politics and Econ Update
TURKEY - Report 12 Jul 2013
Executive Summary Recent actions by PM Erdogan and AKP give the impression that the party has parted ways with reality. A chief proponent of the ‘High Rates Lobby’ has been appointed Chief Advisor to PM, while the authorities have begun to investigate financial transactions to find corroborators ...

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Retail Sales (May 2013)
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 11 Jul 2013
In May, retail sales in the restricted concept remained stable, but in the augmented sense (including cars and construction materials) there was a decline of 0.8%. In relation to May last year, the respective variations were 4.5% and 4.4% (Graph 1). Graph 1 Retail Sales – 12-month variation Among...

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When Will the Ruble Hit Bottom?
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 11 Jul 2013
Executive Summary Bi-currency basket depreciated 5.2% in May-June 2013. Subsequently, the CBR stepped in with currency interventions to support the ruble and spent almost $2.2 billion in June and $1.2 billion in first 9 days of July. Global trends are mostly behind the sharp decline in the Russia...

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Midyear Brief
VENEZUELA - Report 10 Jul 2013
Dialogue with the private sector is President Maduro’s most important public policy initiative so far, seeking to identify and resolve the most critical obstacles to local production. Hostility has given way to a rather relaxed exchange of views. The short list of urgent matters includes access t...

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Political Weakness and Economic Mismanagement
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 10 Jul 2013
Executive Summary The perspectives for the Brazilian economy have taken a turn for the worse. The most optimistic projections for 2013 are for GDP growth below 2.5% (though still above 2%); inflation near (or slightly above) 6%; and the SELIC rate at 9.5% or 10%. The picture is further worsened b...

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Construction and Public Policy
MEXICO - Report 09 Jul 2013
Executive Summary Last week officials released readings of how consumers and producers perceive the performance of the economy and of how their respective finances or businesses are evolving. The Consumer Confidence Index for June recorded a 2.4% softening of sentiment compared to the same month ...

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State Elections: Everyone Wins While Losing Something
MEXICO - Report 09 Jul 2013
Executive Summary Last Sunday, 14 states went to the polls. They elected one new governor in Baja California, and renewed their municipal governments and local Congress. After a much disputed race, the PAN seems to have won the governorship of Baja California for the fifth time in a row. Although...

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Week of July 9: Political Insights
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 09 Jul 2013
Two major economic events will take place this week: the announcement of budget cuts which, according to Finance Minister Guido Mantega, will be below R$ 15 billion; and the Central Bank’s decision regarding the basic interest rate. In Congress, the plebiscite on political reform remains on the a...

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Sicad 2.0 on the Horizon
VENEZUELA - Report 09 Jul 2013
The new Sicad system will begin operating in a matter of days. Key issues, such as theallocation mechanism, amounts to be auctioned, criteria defining qualified buyers, and of course, the exchange rate, are still undefined and in the hands of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank. Hopefull...

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Caution over Investment Projections
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 08 Jul 2013
The only good news in the disappointing GDP results for the first quarter was the 4.6% increase in gross fixed capital formation. The question at this point is whether investments will continue on this recovery path, leading the investment rate to rise above 20% of GDP in 2013. The industrial pro...

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Weekly Tracker: July 7-13
TURKEY - Report 07 Jul 2013
Executive Summary The Egyptian coup could complicate things further for AKP, as party leaders openly side with Moslem Brotherhood.The counter-revolution is also making AKP more paranoid about Gezi Park. Large crowds descended on Taksim Square on Saturday, who met with startling police brutality. ...

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Gross reserves declined to $23.1 billion in June
UKRAINE - In Brief 06 Jul 2013
Gross foreign reserves declined $1.4 billion (5.7% m/m) in June down to $23.1 billion or 2.55 months of future imports, according to the Central bank report on July 5th.It has been already for the second month in row gross reserves have been falling.  This tendency was the direct consequence of Q...

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Muddling Along
SOUTH AFRICA - Forecast 05 Jul 2013
Executive Summary We forecast economic activity in South Africa to remain hesitant over the medium- term with inflation adjusted gross domestic product growth recording 2.0 per cent in 2013 and 2.4 per cent in 2014. Although we expect the issue of job creation to feature prominently in political ...