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Spending plan 2023: budget deficit of 20.6% of GDP and huge spending on defense
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022

Yesterday, on November 3nd, Verkhovna Rada approved spending plan 2023. It presumes a deficit of 20.6% of GDP or $30.7 billion. Also the plan defines huge spending on defense on the level of $27 billion or 18.2% of GDP (44% of total budget spending). The approved spending plan tells that the defi...

Major growth pressure looms
CHINA · Forecast · 04 Nov 2022

Growth is slowly recovering, but pressure looms. In Q3, GDP rose 3.9% y/y, up 3.5 pps from Q2, mainly driven by infrastructure investment. Industrial output grew 4.8% y/y in Q3, up 4.1 pps from Q2. Investment rose 5.9%, up 0.1 pps from January to August, and has been rising for two consecutiv...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC hikes oil demand forecasts, Saudi VAT revenue dips unexpectedly, Saudi worries about an Iranian attack
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Nov 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC hiked its long-term oil demand growth forecasts by about 2m b/d to 110m in 2045. * Gulf states largely mirrored the Fed rate hikes, as usual, bar Kuwait. * The IMF reduced most fiscal breakeven oil price forecasts, e...

A PEC will be negotiated to meet Lula’s campaign promises, the government is already seeking to broaden support in Congress, and Bolsonaro’s video speaking out against the roadblocks was effective
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2022

A Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) is being negotiated to guarantee the payment of the Auxílio Brasil program at R$ 600 next year. Alckmin also said that the purpose of the proposal is to guarantee the continuity of public projects and services. It is estimated that around R$ 200 billion w...

Webinar Replay – Brazil: After the second round
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2022

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Brazil Political Analyst Lucas de Aragão discussing the election results, Lula's agenda, and how the victory will reshape Brazil's macro outlook.

October inflation shoots up to 7.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022

The BSP’s job just became even harder. Today’s announcement that October inflation reached 7.7% exceeded analysts’ expectations (median forecast of 7.2%) and is near the upper end of the BSP’s 7.1%-7.9% forecast for the month. Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile food and energy ite...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2022

Liquidity in the domestic market remains muted as a significant amount of cash was withdrawn from the banking system during partial mobilization. Given that interest rates on the retail deposits are relatively low, the return of these funds to the system may take much more time than was in March-...

Headline likely peaked, but…
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2022

Consumer price inflation came in at 3.5%, m/m, in October, broadly in line with the market consensus of around 3.6%, and slightly above ours, the latter stemming largely from a somewhat higher food inflation forecast. The 12-month rate nevertheless increased further -- for the 17th consecutive mo...

Boric's pension reform proposal
CHILE · In Brief · 03 Nov 2022 · 3 responses

In a nationally televised speech President Gabriel Boric announced his much-awaited plan for reforming Chile's pension system. The proposal consists of three elements: a 6% increase in contributions, financed by employers; a rise in the so-called Universal Guaranteed Pension to CLP250.000 (about ...

On social media Bolsonaro called for protestors to unblock the country’s highways, VP-elect Alckmin will meet with the Chief of Staff to formalize the government transition process, and negotiations for the presidencies of the House and Senate have begun
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2022

Several entities reported supply risks due to the protests. The Brazilian Petroleum Institute (IBP) sent a letter to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), notifying it about a possible lack of diesel in eight states. But the situation should improve after the president...

Russia says that avoiding a nuclear clash is vital
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2022

On November 2 the Russian Foreign Ministry said that avoiding a nuclear clash is the top priority. It blamed tensions on ''irresponsible and shameless actions aimed at undermining our national security.'' It called on nuclear weapons states to desist from ''dangerous attempts to infringe each oth...

QATAR: Moody's lifts to positive outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Nov 2022

Moody's estimates that Qatar's debt has fallen to 42% of GDP and it expects that the improvement will be maintained as new LNG output comes onstream and capex falls after the World Cup.

September statistics bring no surprises
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2022

Rosstat reported that output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade) was down y-o-y by 3.5% and 0.8% in August and 9M22. Some sectors, such as agriculture, construction, and paid consumer services, performed relatively well, having grown by 5.2%, 5.2%, an...

Russia agrees to revive the grain deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2022

On November 2 Moscow said that it was rejoining the deal that allows Ukrainian food to be shipped via the Black Sea. But Putin warned that Russia will end the deal if it is provoked. Russia said it was allowing the deal to be reanimated since it is satisfied with promises from Ukraine not to use ...

Essential CIS Politics: November 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Nov 2022

* Russia held referenda in East Ukraine and formally annexed four regions before evacuating many Kherson citizens. * Russia mobilized 300,000 more men; some have reached the front and slowed Ukraine’s advance. * Russia carried out nuclear weapons drills, but NATO experts do not think t...

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