Country Insights

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Spending Restraint?
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 30 Oct 2013
Growth in government spending decelerated further in September in what may be seen as an immediate impact of the still unfolding pork barrel (PDAF) scandal as agencies have likely become extra cautious in releasing funds for projects.  Data released today showed government non-interest expenditur...

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AMLO Protests Lose Steam
MEXICO - In Brief 30 Oct 2013
The former presidential candidate of the Left and the PRD, Andrés Manuel López Obrador has found in the opposition to the Energy Reform a new political opportunity, but it is losing steam rapidly as a source of popularity and public relevance. With a strategy based on public meetings, and radio a...

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Turning Point On Growth?
PERU - Report 30 Oct 2013
Executive Summary Scandal upon scandal seems to be erupting, crowding out potential debates over substantive political issues. First, there’s the string of corruption cases in Congress—the latest focused on a politician discovered paying himself more than half the congressional funds meant for hi...

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Unemployment Rate Eases on Rising Absorption Rate
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 29 Oct 2013
According to Statistics South Africa, the Q3 2013 unemployment rate of 24.7% is 0.9 percentage points lower than the 25.6% recorded in Q2 2013 (see Graph 1 below). This was mainly driven by an increase in the number of employed persons (2.2% q/q) coupled with a decrease in the number of unemploye...

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Scaling Back Revenues
MEXICO - Report 29 Oct 2013
Executive Summary Banco de México announced Friday that it was lowering its target interbank lending rate by 25 basis points from 3.75% to 3.50%. The move, which was widely expected, was the central bank’s third rate cut year to date. In the statement accompanying the rate announcement, Banco de ...

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Euro-integration Stories
UKRAINE - Report 29 Oct 2013
Executive Summary Every other burning issue seems forgotten, as the whole country waits to see whether Ukraine and the EU will sign the Association Agreement. Businesses are anticipating positive news. The FX market has calmed, since officials have promised lots of foreign cash after the signing....

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Argentina 2013 Midterm Election Readings
ARGENTINA - In Brief 28 Oct 2013 1 response
When analyzing the preliminary outcome of yesterday’s mid-term elections in Argentina one should focus on two main aspects.1) The government new power balance in the Congress2) The outlook for the 2015 presidential candidates.  With respect to the first point: despite a relatively mediocre electo...

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Midterm Election Readings
ARGENTINA - Report 28 Oct 2013
As we mentioned in the Global Source Partner Direct webpage, when analyzing the preliminary outcome of yesterday’s mid-term elections in Argentina one should primarily focus on two main aspects. The government new power balance in the CongressThe outlook for the 2015 presidential candidates With ...

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Dominican Rep Issues USD 500 Millions in Sovereign Bonds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 28 Oct 2013
Last week, the Government of the Dominican Republic issued USD 500 in Sovereign Bonds at a 6.6% interest rate. Citibank was in charge of the operation. Initial offers amounted to USD 1,750 millions, 3.5 times the amount offered. According to the Ministerio de Hacienda, the amount issued correspon...

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Cooling of the Labor Market and Perspectives for Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 28 Oct 2013
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in September rose slightly, from 5.3% to 5.4%, still near the historic low levels where it has hovered for some time now. This could lead to the conclusion that the job market remains hot, favoring growth of consumption. But a deeper look at the informati...

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Political Insights: Week of October 28
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 28 Oct 2013
The unification of the ICMS will dominate discussions in the Senate. The ICMS will also be debated by Confaz. The Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) will vote on the bill of law to create the compensation funds for state and municipal losses.In the House, we highlight the Civil Framework for the In...

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Banxico Overconfident?
MEXICO - In Brief 25 Oct 2013
Banco de México just announced a 25 basis point reduction in the Domestic Interbank Rate, to an annual 3.5%. It was an expected move by most market operators, i.e. 23 out of 24 participants of the latest Banamex Money Market Survey. Banxico justified this action based on the fact that domestic in...

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COSTA RICA: Finance Minister Campaigns for a Deficit Cut
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 25 Oct 2013
Executive SummaryCosta Rican Finance Minister Edgar Ayales is trying to turn the country’s ballooning fiscal deficit into an electoral issue, in the runup to the February 2014 presidential vote. He recently released a 52-page missive, in which he and his team analyzed the results of six months of...

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Public Insecurity Worsens Further
MEXICO - Report 23 Oct 2013
Executive Summary The overall crime rate per 100,000 inhabitants has risen consistently since 2010 according to the National Statistics Office’s Third National Victimization and Security Perception Survey or “ENVIPE”. The study, conducted between March and April of 2013, queried people on matters...

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MPC: Cut and Paste, Wait and See
TURKEY - Report 23 Oct 2013
As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee left all rates (weekly policy as well as the O/N rates; see graph) and all other policy levers unchanged today. The wording of the statement was literally a carbon copy of the September statement (click here for this and here for the previous statements....