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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

March’s CPI surprises on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Apr 2022

March’s CPI surprises on the downside Inflation in March increased by 0.6% m/m (expectations were for 0.8%, ours as well) and by 3.5% y/y (similar to last month). Core inflation (excluding energy and fresh produce) increased by 3% y/y (similar to last month), with core inflation excluding governm...

Some Chinese edge away from Russia in complex operating conditions
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Apr 2022

Lifan, the Chinese motor manufacturer, has suspended sales in Russia. Lifan was the largest Chinese car brand sold in Russia in 2014-18. It seems that Lifan does not wish to operate in Russia and is not registering more vehicles there. Lifan's hotline is not working and it is not updating its soc...

Webinar Replay - Crisis in Peru: President Castillo against the wall
PERU · Report · 15 Apr 2022

Gain insights into Peru's political crisis and gauge how the turmoil will impact the country’s political and macro outlook. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Alfredo Thorne discussing the protests against President Castillo and the likely fallout from the crisis.

Huawei furloughs staff in Russia
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2022

On April 13 the Chinese telecoms giant announced the move. This is probably partly because China faces secondary sanctions for trading with Russia. The USA has warned China not to assist Russia economically.A leave of absence has been imposed on Huawei staff in Russia. New supply contracts have b...

War intensifies as Ukraine claims to have destroyed warship and Moscow threatens to strike Kyiv
CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2022

On April 14 Moscow said its Black Sea flagship had been badly damaged by an accidental explosion. Kyiv claims its Neptune missile struck the warship Moskva. Ukraine has been pleading with NATO to supply it with such missiles for weeks. Russia was able to land troops on the Ukrainian coast because...

MNB sterilisation rate unchanged today, the third time in row
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Apr 2022

Today's MNB deposit tender has been the third consecutive occasion that the Bank left the fix interest rate, at which it mops up all the free and willing HUF liquidity of banks for the following week, unchanged at 6.15%. As the forint has been conveniently trading within the EURHUF 375-380 range ...

Inflation is becoming a political nightmare
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2022

Worldwide, the latest inflation indices have been reflecting a new global problem, based on rising energy and food prices, as the supply side shocks triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine spread across the markets. Yet, Argentina is not only not isolated from this problem, but also, on the ...

Inflation and war drives economic growth outlook lower
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 13 Apr 2022

Although the economy grew at a good pace in January and February, the persistence of inflation is worrying in a context of oil prices above $100 per barrel, and the uncertainty generated by the Russia-Ukraine war. Cumulative January-February GDP growth was 6% y/y, and inflation reached 8.98% in M...

Shanghai lockdown
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Apr 2022

High frequency cinema opening data suggests a flattening out of the impact of Covid on the country, although it’s too early to tell. Meanwhile, the problems with the Shanghai lockdown highlight the central government’s experimentation with focused lockdowns but also raise questions about Beijing’...

Easter break
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Apr 2022

The Philippines will take its annual Lenten break beginning Thursday. We leave our readers with two thoughts on the economy’s short-term outlook. The latest official survey by Pulse Asia conducted in mid-March, which showed Vice President Leni Robredo’s voter share jumping 9ppt to 24%, has invigo...

A windfall?
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 12 Apr 2022

We update the outlook we presented to you just four weeks ago. A little more than a month after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine and in an environment of tremendous volatility and uncertainty, oil prices have risen sharply, world oil and gas markets are undergoing restructuring, and the e...

​The Federal budget surplus rises in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget surplus reached R614bn and R1.151trln in March and 1Q22. The revenue collection was strong both on the side of oil-and-gas and the non-oil-and-gas taxes. In 1Q22, the government collected 28.7% of total targeted for 2022 revenues (31.2% of ...

Lula had dinner with MDB leaders in Brasília yesterday, the House may vote on the Auxílio Brasil MP, and the Senate Economic Affairs Committee may vote on the ISS bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Apr 2022

Former Senate President Eunício Oliveira made a point of stressing that the dinner does not mean Simone Tebet's candidacy will be boycotted. It is also worth mentioning that the MDB is negotiating an alliance with the PSDB, União Brasil and Cidadania for October. It is unlikely that the third way...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for opportunities in 2022
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 12 Apr 2022

According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the nation’s economy grew by 4.0% in 2021. The 2021 figure looked reasonably good after the 2.5% contraction in 2020, especially due to the fact that the pandemic started to influence the Kazakh economy several months later than in Russia a...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for opportunities in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Apr 2022

According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the nation’s economy grew by 4.0% in 2021. The 2021 figure looked reasonably good after the 2.5% contraction in 2020, especially due to the fact that the pandemic started to influence the Kazakh economy several months later than in Russia a...

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