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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Three ministers out: big cleaning on the eve of second anniversary in power
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 May 2021

Yesterday, on May 18th, Verkhovna Rada dismissed three ministers: Minister of Infrastructure, Vladyslav Krykliy; Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture Igor Petrashko; and Minister of Healthcare, Maxym Stepanov. This reshuffle is merely the result of infighting between interest g...

Election contest tightens; economy surprises on the upside
PERU · Report · 18 May 2021

Less than three weeks before Election Day on June 6th, the second-round runoff between presidential candidates Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo has turned tight. Most opinion polls published over the last four weeks confirm that Castillo has lost much of the strong lead he held at the start of t...

Twitter will not be banned in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 May 2021

On May 18 it was announced that Twitter has done just enough to avoid being banned by Roskomnadzor (the Russian communication authority). Twitter has been slowed in Russia since March 10 because of its persistent failure to remove prohibited content. The authorities claim this is mainly about chi...

GDP numbers look better than the headline print
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 May 2021

The Israeli economy contracted by 6.5% saar in Q121, following growth of 6.3% in the previous quarter. This headline print looks disappointing (we were actually expecting a modest increase in growth), but the devil is in the details: In the beginning of 2021, taxes on new vehicles (hybrid) increa...

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Ernesto Araujo testifies in the COVID CPI today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2021

​Today, former Minister of Foreign Affairs Ernesto Araujo testifies in the COVID Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the Senate at 9 a.m. Brazil’s relationship with China should be the focus of his testimony, given Brazil’s difficulties in importing supplies for the production of vaccines...

Russian personal debt reaching crisis level
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 May 2021

On May 17 the Duma was told by the Russian Central Bank that payday loans could be reaching crisis level. A bubble has formed. Household spending is the lowest since 2009. Households have borrowed to cover essential purchases.The number of loans over 90 days behind rose 20% in Q1 2021. These are ...

Better than expected Q1 GDP reported today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 May 2021

GDP grew by 1.9% qoq, implying a 1.8% yoy, sda decline in Q1, the former one of the best in Europe (EU: -0.4% qoq), the latter just around the EU average (-1.7% yoy). This is preliminary data, with no details on supply and demand components. The KSH only said this morning that areas of strength w...

Macroeconomic conditions and outlook in the second wave
INDIA · Report · 18 May 2021

In April, there was a dramatic “second wave” of the pandemic in India. This has been a health catastrophe, particularly for the urban rich and for rural populations. In this report, we review conditions in early 2021 and summarize present health knowledge about the second wave. We look ahead i...

Cry, Correa, cry
ECUADOR · Report · 18 May 2021

“Llori Correa Llori” was the message that flooded social media after Guadalupe Llori – whose last name resembles “llora” or "cry" – was elected president of the National Assembly. Llori, a member of the Pachakutik party, was persecuted and incarcerated by Correa during his presidency. Thus, she r...

Ukrainian Cabinet Ministers being replaced
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 May 2021

On May 17 the Ukrainian Parliament was told that the Health Minister, the Economy Minister and the Infrastructure Minister are resigning. They can only leave their posts with the approval of Parliament. It is highly likely that this shall be forthcoming.The resignations come partly because of pub...

Politics: Causes and political implications of the Metro Line 12 collapse
MEXICO · Report · 17 May 2021

The recent collapse of part of the elevated section of Line 12 of the Mexico City Metro that left 26 dead and 80 injured, was a major development in the city, and its consequences could be far reaching. It served to highlight problems plaguing not only the city’s newest line (L12), but the entire...

Economics: Public finance outlook remains bleak
MEXICO · Report · 17 May 2021

Despite an optimistic perspective from the Ministry on Finance on the evolution of the first quarter public finances, the picture is not quite so rosy. What emerges from our reading of the official data is a weakening of public finance in 2021, a situation that could extend through the rest of th...

Demonstration of support for Bolsonaro and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 May 2021

The voting agenda in the Lower House includes, among other items, the provisional measure on the privatization of Eletrobras. The Constitution and Justice Committee may also vote on the report on Administrative Reform. The president of the Lower House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), will release a timetabl...

October 19, the sequel
CHILE · Report · 17 May 2021 · 3 responses

Almost nineteen months after Chile’s main political forces agreed that the path towards a new constitution was a way out of the violence and protest that gripped the country, after a pandemic, and a delayed referendum and yet another delay, Chileans finally got down to the task of electing the me...

Russia’s macro: Hiking the key rate to brake consumption growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 17 May 2021

As Russia’s GDP growth is expected to remain moderate in 2021, the question now is what will happen next with interest rates, as the CBR raised the key rate by 25 bps at the end of March and by 50 bps a month later and hinted it will keep raising it further. What the regulator will do on June 11 ...

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