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Country Insights

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Currency Struggling for Stability
INDONESIA - Report 28 Jul 2013
Executive Summary We may see rupiah depreciation deepen, given intensifying public purchases of dollars and waning confidence in the Central Bank’s ability to defend the currency. Having topped Rp. 10,000 per dollar, and drifting lower, the rupiah is now seeking a new equilibrium level. Sev...

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Peru’s Winter of Our Discontent
PERU - Report 26 Jul 2013
Executive SummaryThe most unusual of Peru’s recent spate of protests was a spontaneous uprising organized via social media, against the appointments of six Constitutional Tribunal judges and an ombudsman. Instead of choosing qualified candidates, Congress parceled the posts out among political pa...

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Sicad 2 Disappoints
VENEZUELA - Report 25 Jul 2013
Executive Summary Nicolás Maduro has had a busy month filled with activities at home and abroad designed to show him firmly in control of the presidency. Meanwhile, repression against opposition politicians continues. The PSUV seems to be trying to silence the opposition by harassment. Venezuela’...

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South Africa Reacts to Faltering Growth Momentum
SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 24 Jul 2013
An African National Congress (ANC) National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting resolved this week to set up a Presidential Task Team on the economy, with a view to arrest the faltering growth momentum. The South African economy has been bedeviled by the weak global economic environment as well as ...

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South Africa Reacts to Faltering Growth Momentum
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 24 Jul 2013
An African National Congress (ANC) National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting resolved this week to set up a Presidential Task Team on the economy, with a view to arrest the faltering growth momentum. The South African economy has been bedeviled by the weak global economic environment as well as ...

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The Party’s Over…but the music still sounds
PANAMA - Forecast 23 Jul 2013
Executive SummaryGrowth has lost its double-digit momentum for the first time in nearly two years, coming in at 7% in Q1, down from 10% in Q4 2012. Falling services exports, weaker global growth and trade restrictions in Venezuela and Colombia have taken a toll, as has the end of the government i...

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Middle Class Incomes Stagnate
MEXICO - Report 23 Jul 2013
Executive Summary At the beginning of the week President Enrique Peña Nieto announced his Investment Program for Transportation and Telecommunications Infrastructure for 2013 to 2018. During the presentation, the President said his administration intends to spend roughly 4 trillion pesos on such ...

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Our Dignity is not for Sale
ECUADOR - Report 23 Jul 2013
Executive Summary Though Ecuador decided it wasn’t in its best interest to provide political asylum for fugitive American intelligence contractor Edward Snowden, the damage to Ecuador’s trade relations with the United States has been done. Fifteen products, or 17% of Ecuador’s non-oil exports, wi...

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The Pact Changes Course
MEXICO - Report 23 Jul 2013
Executive Summary The state and municipal elections held on July 7 appear to have ushered in a new phase in the life of the Pact for Mexico. The two main opposition parties, PAN and PRD, have stepped up their accusations about improper use of public funds during the campaign in violation of the a...

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Trilemma Optimization Continues
TURKEY - Report 23 Jul 2013
The Monetary Policy Committee raised the O/N lending rate by 75 bps to 7.25%, and left the other two rates -- the weekly policy and O/N borrowing rates -- unchanged, thereby widening the O/N corridor (see graph).The Bank also kept the ROCs and RRRs unchanged. The move is broadly in line with the ...

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SONA: Unsonorous But Sound
PHILIPPINES - Report 23 Jul 2013
The annual reporting must have become a chore by now and it showed in a bland speech lasting almost two hours. Hailed by supporters but slammed by critics, President Benigno Aquino’s midterm State of the Nation Address (SONA) yesterday before a joint session of the 16th Congress was in substance ...

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Week of July 22: Political Insights
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 22 Jul 2013
Executive Summary The main event of the week is Pope Francis’s visit to Brazil. In other news, the government is monitoring social media to identify possible protests leading up to World Youth Day on July 28.Regarding the economy, we highlight the announcement of budget cuts of approximately R$ 1...

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A new quasi-currency?
ARGENTINA - Report 22 Jul 2013
Executive SummaryThe latest deterioration of the current account surplus and the need to continue using reserves to substitute instrumented debt amortization with inflation tax, has again triggered some new policies from the government. Among them are the tax amnesty and the acceptance that YPF r...

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Weekly Tracker: July 21-27
TURKEY - Report 21 Jul 2013
Executive Summary We opted for a different format in this Tracker, because of a short break our political analyst-cum-cosmic strategist had to take. After briefly highlighting a few important political developments of the past week, we provide our economic commentary as usual. Syrian border troub...

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South African Economy: Weekly Review and Outlook
SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 19 Jul 2013
The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the repo rate unchanged yesterday highlights the fact that monetary policy in South Africa has become largely dormant. With economic growth forecasts revised downwards – due to electricity supply constraints as well as other domestic and global f...