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The US Elections, the Vaccine and the New Covid Waves
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2020

Two positive events triggered a wave of optimism and appreciation of assets in the large majority of countries last week: the victory of the Democrat Joe Biden in the USA and the announcement by Pfizer that its vaccine is 90% effective in preventing infections by the new coronavirus. With the Fed...

Political brinkmanship (with updated political information)
PERU · Report · 16 Nov 2020

Political brinkmanship has been the focus since March, when the election of a new Congress resulted in an open confrontation between a Congress that wanted to pass populist legislation, and former president Martin Vizcarra, who faced bribery accusations. This led to Vizcarra’s November 9th impeac...

The races in state capitals and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2020

The House and Senate will try to resume voting, but the more controversial issues still lack consensus. The result of the first round of the municipal elections will drive negotiations and alliances ahead of the second round. In the Federal Supreme Court, the constitutionality of intermittent lab...

Growth in Q320 surprises on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Nov 2020

Q320 GDP increased by 37.9% Saar, above expectations (around 24% according to Bloomberg). We had expected 30%. Private consumption increased by 42%, exports by 63.9% and investment by 7.3%. The level of GDP is down only 1.5% y/y in Q3 (compared to -2.9% for the US and -4.3% for the EU). The Israe...

The inflationary environment remains subdued
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Nov 2020

Inflation remains fairly subdued, with core inflation down 0.4% Y/Y in October. We expect a modest acceleration in inflation going forward, as domestic demand recovers and commodity prices move higher. S&P reaffirmed Israel’s rating on strong fundamentals; we think the 2021 budget approval will b...

Economics: Yet another inertial budget to nowhere
MEXICO · Report · 16 Nov 2020

The erosion of public finance accelerated over the course of the third quarter, with numbers especially alarming as of September, the most recent month for which we have results. Even as the tax authority stepped up efforts to energetically impose "administrative" measures — formally legal, but i...

Politics: Lessons for Mexico in Biden’s election
MEXICO · Report · 16 Nov 2020

As the number of countries rushing to congratulate US President-elect Joe Biden has swelled to include even numerous heads of state with strong affinities for Donald Trump, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador remains among the dwindling ranks of those who are holding back, alongside the more ge...

Sandu wins Moldovan presidency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Nov 2020

On November 16 statistics from the Election Commission showed that Maia Sandu has won the presidential election with 57% of the vote. Her opponent was President Igor Dodon. 99.6% of the votes have been counted. An official announcement of the results will be made on November 20. The Constitutiona...

Major upsurge in Belarus protests
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Nov 2020

On November 15 large protests demanded that Lukashenka resign. The scale of the protests surprised the government. It had been assumed that the opposition was running out of steam. Police responded with a heavy hand. Over 1 000 people were arrested. Tear gas and stun grenades were used. The inter...

The inflationary environment remains subdued
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Nov 2020

October’s CPI surprised slightly on the downside reaching 0.3% m/m (we had expected 0.4%, while consensus was in the 0.3%-0.4% range) - details below.. Core inflation remained stable at -0.4% y/y, similar to September. Housing rental prices remain sticky, up 1.7% y/y following 1.6% in Sept. We ex...

Taking stock after an eventful week
TURKEY · Report · 15 Nov 2020 · 1 response

President Erdogan should be given credit for staging a F-1 driver quality U-turn on the spot. Yet, the man himself has not changed and what we are witnessing is a tactical retreat to “fight another day”. That being said, he is likely to stay in his good behavior for the next three months. Afterwa...

Armenian opposition accused of coup plot
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Nov 2020

On November 14 the leader of the Homeland Party was arrested on suspicion of plotting to assassinate the prime minister. Artur Vanetsian excoriated Pashinyan over losing the war against Azerbaijan. Vanetsian was once head of the National Security Service (NSS) which is the country's equivalent of...

Ukraine lockdown at weekends
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Nov 2020

On November 12 the government announced a lockdown from November 14-30 - at weekends only. The aim was to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The lockdown closes all businesses except grocery stores, drug stores and hospitals during weekends until the end of November.President Zelensky is being t...

Luhansk crossing points
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2020

On November 10 Ukraine said that it wants to open two more frontline transit points in the Luhansk Region. The Russian side is not allowing anyone through.Efforts to establish new crossing points failed in the past. People in Luhansk have only one foot crossing point. Stanitsa Luhanska is that pl...

New head of Russian anti-monopoly service
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2020

On November 12 the head of the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service (FAS) was moved to be assistant to the prime minister. Artemyev had been en poste since its foundation in 2004. The new head of the FAS is Maxim Shaskolky who was the deputy governor of St Petersburg.The FAS's task was to create real co...

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