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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic growth moderates in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Oct 2021 · 1 response

Rosstat reported that basic sector output (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade combined) was up y-o-y by 4.0% and 6.4% in August and 8M21. Growth in August was relatively slow due to negative y-o-y growth in Agriculture (-10.1%) as harvesting season this year started later than ...

Predictably persistent
TURKEY · Report · 04 Oct 2021

Consumer prices increased by 1.25%, m/m, in September, broadly in line with the consensus, including ours, with the 12-month rate rising further to 19.6% from 19.25% in August. Producer prices rose by 1.55% in the month, m/m, with the 12-month rate easing somewhat to 44% from 45.5% earlier, but c...

The politics of the fourth withdrawal
CHILE · Report · 04 Oct 2021 · 2 responses

This week the discussion of the bill enabling a fourth withdrawal of up to 10% of private pension funds moves on to the Senate, having been approved by the lower house. Most observers believe the bill will be rejected in the Senate. Our calculations indicate that, on paper, the bill is four or fi...

Wednesday is the deadline for submitting amendments to the court-ordered payments PEC, the Senate should vote on the new railway legal framework on Tuesday, and the DEM and PSL merger is scheduled for Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2021

Deputy Hugo Motta, the rapporteur of the court-ordered payments PEC, should submit his report on the text this week or next week. The rapporteur of the railway framework, Senator Jean Paul Prates (PT-RN), submitted his report last week, and the trend is for approval. The new party formed by the m...

The BoI is likely to announce the end of QE this week
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Oct 2021

Economic indicators point to robust growth in Q321, supported by private consumption and export growth. We maintain our below-consensus inflation forecast, assuming further shekel appreciation and relatively modest wage pressure. The BoI is expected to announce the end of QE this week, presenting...

​The China connection
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Oct 2021

Ongoing efforts by Chinese authorities to rein in excessive leverage in the property sector has had unintended consequences on global financial markets. The financial troubles of heretofore unheard-of Chinese property firm, Evergrande, have not only raised, in a moment of panic, the specter of an...

Tough times ahead
TURKEY · Forecast · 03 Oct 2021

As the debate intensifies on whether the global economy is faced with stagflation, we seem to be certainly looking to one over here. True, growth momentum has turned out stronger than envisaged, but that owes a lot to last year’s massive credit impulse. The “bifurcated” nature of post-Covid r...

Ex-President of Georgia arrested
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2021

Mikheil Saakashvili flew back into Georgia on October 2 for the first time in several years. He had been living in Ukraine. The governing party (Georgian Dream) won local elections on October 3 with 47% of the votes. The opposition says the elections were rigged. Georgian Dream has been accused o...

First round of opposition primaries ended with an almost complete lack of clarity
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2021

The first round of the united opposition's primary election is now over, and voting results are fully counted. Out of the 106 parliamentary constituencies, DK (the Democratic Coalition) has won candidacy in 32, Jobbik in 29, MSzP (the Socialist Party) in 18, Momentum in 15, Párbeszéd in 7 and LMP...

​GULF WEEKLY: Saudi pre-budget, Bahrain & Dubai GDP, Bahrain 10% VAT, Kuwait national dialogue
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Oct 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC expects oil demand to keep rising, although it cut its 2045 forecast by -1m b/d to 108m. * LNG hit a record price, and Brent touched $80 for the first time in three years. * The Saudi pre-budget statement sees a defi...

On Kavcioglu interview, CBRT reserves and September inflation
TURKEY · Report · 01 Oct 2021

We have received a few queries on the topics included in the title above, i.e., statements made by CBRT Governor Kavcioglu in a recent interview; the relative improvement in CBRT reserves, and September inflation forecast, which will be released this Monday. We thought it might be useful to provi...

Inflationary pressure to remain high in 4Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Oct 2021

Rosstat reported that inflation w-o-w was 0.29% in seven days ending September 27. Inflation reached 0.49% and 5.20% MTD and YTD, which is above expectation. In September, inflation y-o-y will well exceed 7.0%, prompting the CBR to raise the key rate further.Inflation remains high as budgetary ex...

The PSL has agreed to merge with the DEM, Eduardo Leite is in the lead in the PSDB primaries, and next week will be the last week of testimony in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2021

Today, President Bolsonaro signs the Green Rural Product Certificate Decree at 10:30 a.m. and at 3:30 p.m. he participates in the ceremony for the beginning of the Maringá Airport modernization projects and the inauguration of the Bela Vista Hydroelectric Power Plant in Maringá, Paraná. This week...

A note on the spike in the recent GDP data: it hides a dismal recovery
PANAMA · Report · 01 Oct 2021

The 40.4 percent growth in Q2 (10.0 percent in the first semester) may not be enough to achieve the double-digit performance for the year that some analysts predict. The rebound will face a labor market characterized by increasing unemployment and informality. Only a handful of sectors will reach...

Kyrgyzstan takes more action against Kumtor as jailed former president mulls return to politics
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Oct 2021

On September 29 Kyrgyzstan put some more executives of Centerra Gold on its wanted list. The Canadian company owns a gold mine in Kyrgyzstan. The executives are accused of bribery.The UKMK (security agency) said that the company was corrupt and made USD 200 million illicitly. A former Prime Minis...

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