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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Francisco Sagasti to swear-in as new president
PERU · In Brief · 17 Nov 2020

Last night and after a tense weekend, Congress decided to elect Francisco Sagasti from the Purple Party as its new head and Ms. Mirtha Vásquez, from the leftist Frente Amplio Party as the vice-president. With former president Manuel Merino resigning as a result of the street protests, Mr. Sagasti...

Difficulties in a small private bank
INDIA · In Brief · 17 Nov 2020

1. India has experienced a financial crisis from about 2012 onwards.2. At present, there is no resolution framework for financial firms. Hence, when balance-sheet based lenders (either investment banks or banks) get into trouble, there is no playbook for their resolution. The various claimants on...

Peering into the recovery
INDIA · Report · 17 Nov 2020

India has had a relatively good experience, by world standards, in the pandemic. While many have been infected, demand for hospitalization (or death) is taking place at modest rates. Many regions in India are approaching herd immunity. The large listed non-financial firms experienced a decline...

Russian GDP fell in Q3
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2020

Russia's economy went down by 3.6% YoY in Q3. That is not as bad as Q2 when it fell 8% YoY.After the first lockdown the Economy Ministry forecast a GDP fall of 3.8% for 2020. That statistic now seems far too rosy.The laxer lockdown in Q3 has mitigated the economic slowdown. Domestic tourism has a...

Covid-19 weekly update – week ending November 16, 2020 – confusion in the growth of industrial stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Nov 2020

We saw more weakening in economic activity – but very modest. Cement prices notched up slightly YoY but industrial glass prices are dropping, as are blast furnace operating rates. On the consumer side, traffic congestion fell slightly while property transactions dipped sharply. Retail car sale...

Struggling to move on
CHILE · Report · 16 Nov 2020

During September the IMACEC suggested a further acceleration in the recovery. Any resulting optimism should be tempered, however, by one-off factors. The performance of retail sales for September was atypically positive, favored by a temporary boost from the partial withdrawal of pension savings....

Hungary and Poland blocked the EU's fiscal package in today's preliminary vote
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Nov 2020

EU member states' ambassadors to Brussels met today to hold a preliminary vote on the €1100 bn common budget framework for 2021-2027, the €750 bn recovery package and the conditionality mechanism (the rule-of-law mechanism) attached to both of the former proposals. Of the 27 member states, 25 vot...

The US Elections, the Vaccine and the New Covid Waves
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2020

Two positive events triggered a wave of optimism and appreciation of assets in the large majority of countries last week: the victory of the Democrat Joe Biden in the USA and the announcement by Pfizer that its vaccine is 90% effective in preventing infections by the new coronavirus. With the Fed...

Political brinkmanship (with updated political information)
PERU · Report · 16 Nov 2020

Political brinkmanship has been the focus since March, when the election of a new Congress resulted in an open confrontation between a Congress that wanted to pass populist legislation, and former president Martin Vizcarra, who faced bribery accusations. This led to Vizcarra’s November 9th impeac...

The races in state capitals and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2020

The House and Senate will try to resume voting, but the more controversial issues still lack consensus. The result of the first round of the municipal elections will drive negotiations and alliances ahead of the second round. In the Federal Supreme Court, the constitutionality of intermittent lab...

Growth in Q320 surprises on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Nov 2020

Q320 GDP increased by 37.9% Saar, above expectations (around 24% according to Bloomberg). We had expected 30%. Private consumption increased by 42%, exports by 63.9% and investment by 7.3%. The level of GDP is down only 1.5% y/y in Q3 (compared to -2.9% for the US and -4.3% for the EU). The Israe...

The inflationary environment remains subdued
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Nov 2020

Inflation remains fairly subdued, with core inflation down 0.4% Y/Y in October. We expect a modest acceleration in inflation going forward, as domestic demand recovers and commodity prices move higher. S&P reaffirmed Israel’s rating on strong fundamentals; we think the 2021 budget approval will b...

Economics: Yet another inertial budget to nowhere
MEXICO · Report · 16 Nov 2020

The erosion of public finance accelerated over the course of the third quarter, with numbers especially alarming as of September, the most recent month for which we have results. Even as the tax authority stepped up efforts to energetically impose "administrative" measures — formally legal, but i...

Politics: Lessons for Mexico in Biden’s election
MEXICO · Report · 16 Nov 2020

As the number of countries rushing to congratulate US President-elect Joe Biden has swelled to include even numerous heads of state with strong affinities for Donald Trump, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador remains among the dwindling ranks of those who are holding back, alongside the more ge...

Sandu wins Moldovan presidency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Nov 2020

On November 16 statistics from the Election Commission showed that Maia Sandu has won the presidential election with 57% of the vote. Her opponent was President Igor Dodon. 99.6% of the votes have been counted. An official announcement of the results will be made on November 20. The Constitutiona...

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