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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Interconnection of the Brazilian and Chinese Economies
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Sep 2021

THE MONETARY POLICY MAP – Next Wednesday, BRAZILIAN GROWTH AND COMMODITY PRICES – The best way to depict the dependence of growth of the Brazilian economy on Chinese growth is to examine the dispersion diagram in Graph 1. The Granger causality test based on quarterly data shows that variations of...

Friday will be Bolsonaro’s 1000th day as President of Brazil, Congress analyzes presidential vetoes, and Anatel should publish the 5G auction notice
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Sep 2021

President Bolsonaro has a busy schedule this week with several events across the country. The list of vetoes to be analyzed includes those regarding the privatization of Eletrobras; the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO); party federations; and the suspension of evictions until the end of 2021. The rapp...

A slightly surprising upgrade from Moody's
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2021

On Friday (September 24), Moody's announced an upgrade for Hungarian sovereign debt to Baa2/Stable from Baa3/Positive. This was not entirely unexpected, on the grounds that:- Moody's previous Baa3 was one notch below the BBB/Stable ratings maintained by S&P and Fitch Ratings; and- the agency held...

Crossroads everywhere
TURKEY · Report · 26 Sep 2021

Times are changing in Turkish politics rapidly, as President Erdogan reaches a fork in the path of foreign policy, as the opposition begins to unite and expand its member parties. Erdogan came back from his NY trip in bad spirits, blasting the Biden administration for the “usual suspects”, i.e...

Shekel appreciation continues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Sep 2021

Brief Weekly Macro Review26/9/21With Israel still enjoying a holiday season, economic data has been sparse. Here are some highlights: The shekel continues to appreciate, by 0.55% in the past week (against the basket) and by 0.9% so far this month (following 1% in August). In July, foreign investo...

Gazprom refuses to increase gas sales to the EU as prices soar
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2021 · 1 response

On September 21 the Russian state gas giant declined to augment shipments to the west. The EU is staring an energy shortage in the face just as temperatures are cooling.On September 21 capacity for gas shipments via Ukrainian pipeline were held. Gazprom did not purchase additional capacity. The Y...

Top executive of Russian company arrested in the US
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2021

On September 24 Mark Gvetvay was arrested in the US and charged with hiding his control of foreign accounts and assets. He made his Russian wife a beneficial owner of the same. He has since divorced her. Gvetvay is an executive of Novatek. The company says the arrests will not disrupt the company...

Growth weakens, though more structural reforms are underway
CHINA · Report · 24 Sep 2021

Growth has weakened, especially in services. In August, industrial output grew 5.3% y/y, and was up 11.2% from August 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 5.4%, down 0.2 ppts from July, and down 1.2 ppts from Q2. The service production index has slowed since Q2, and grew only 4.8% y/y in Augus...

The South African Reserve Bank keeps rates unchanged despite the stronger economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Sep 2021

Continuing with its trend of not altering interest rates since it cut them by 25 basis points at its July 2020 meeting, the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) once again voted to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%. With the repo rate at 3.5%, the ...

​GULF WEEKLY: Omani mineral exports surge, Covid restrictions ease, Royals hang in shorts
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Sep 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * MBS hosted a casual bro's gathering in Neom for Qatar’s Emir and MBZ’s brother. Ministers from Qatar and Turkey also participated in a meeting in Dubai in a further sign of the regional de-escalation trend. * There were fu...

Dep. Maia’s report on the Administrative Reform proposal approved in the Special Committee, the STF should conclude the judgment on whether the Federal Government can charge taxes on tax refunds, and the House may vote on a fiscal incentives law
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2021

The Administrative Reform proposal can now be put to a vote in the Plenary of the House, which should take place next week. There are currently 7 votes against the taxation of tax returns and 1 vote in favor. As a complementary law, the fiscal incentives law requires an absolute majority of votes...

Poland forces illegal immigrants to return to Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2021

On September 23 Polish NGOs said that the Polish government is forcing hundreds of illegal immigrants back into Belarus - allegedly where they came from. The Polish authorities are arresting the migrants and then deporting them. Most of them are from Iraq and Iran. They are mostly young men. The ...

The clock is ticking
ECUADOR · In Brief · 23 Sep 2021

Guillermo Lasso will personally present the labor and tax reforms together with other bills to the assembly on Friday, September 24, after socializing their main contents tonight. The government has decided to send these bills together as one economically urgent law. In this fashion, the Assembly...

The CBRT capitulates sooner than expected
TURKEY · Report · 23 Sep 2021 · 1 response

In a surprise move of sorts, the CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate (one-week repo) by 100 bps to 18% (simple) today (see chart). We are saying “of sorts”, because even though the “revealed” consensus was one of no rate-cut, everyone, including this author, was nervous that a premature rate cut could f...

​Inflation remains elevated despite growing domestic manufacturing as the domestic demand expands faster amid election-related stimulus
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2021

The Russian industrial output continued to grow in August relatively fast y-o-y as in 8M21, and in August alone, it was up by 4.5% and 4.7% accordingly. As it happened every month in the past, Rosstat revised up previously published data for July and at the same time reported that seasonally adju...

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