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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Ukraine struggles with coronavirus but receives free vaccines
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2021

The country had 833 coronavirus deaths on November 9. There were 17,000 new cases diagnosed that day. The EU will probably remove Ukraine from its white list (list of safe countries). That will make it all but impossible for Ukrainian residents who are unvaccinated to travel to the EU. The countr...

​Has the final AKP-MHP counter-assault started?
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Nov 2021

I had closed my last mid-week update with an ominous warning: “Ancient taboos of Turkish politics are crumbling down, as events accelerate to light speed. Expect the unexpected”. There are tentative signs of AKP-MHP indeed launching a final counterattack on the opposition alliance and economic mi...

The House concluded the vote on the Court-ordered payments PEC, the STF trial on the rapporteur’s amendments may end today, and Sergio Moro joins the Podemos
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2021

Only one edit to the Court-ordered payments PEC was approved, removing the possibility of changing the “golden rule” through the Budget Law. The proposal will now go to the Senate for further analysis. Rodrigo Pacheco has said that he may take the proposal directly to the plenary. In the STF, a m...

Martinelli was found "not guilty" in the second wiretapping trial
PANAMA · In Brief · 10 Nov 2021

Eight months after Ricardo Martinelli concluded his term as President of Panama on June 30, 2015, Panama Attorney General sent the Supreme Court five accusations against him for presumed wiretapping of political enemies, families, and friends. The Attorney argued the President was using sophistic...

Gazprom steps up supplies to the EU
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2021

The Russian gas major commenced sending more gas to the EU. Gazprom made the announcement on November 9. The EU had castigated Russia from not ramping up the gas supplied as the EU was very short of gas as winter drew on. The EU suspected that Russia was manipulating the market and punishing the ...

Private investment is driving double-digit growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 09 Nov 2021

After several weeks of indecision over whether to propose a tax reform, President Luis Abinader finally chose not to move forward, and indefinitely suspended discussions over the fiscal pact. This measure was widely accepted by both business and the public, with all sectors understanding that thi...

Awful inflation numbers for October, and it is not the end yet
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Nov 2021

Well, this was really disastrous. The headline rate of CPI-inflation rose to 6.5% yoy, up from 5.5% yoy in September. The median of analyst expectations by Portfolio.hu's poll was 6.1%. Core inflation and non-fuel inflation also went up sharply, to 4.7% yoy and 5.2% yoy, respectively:CPI-inflatio...

The House will try to conclude the first round vote on the Court-ordered payments PEC, and Bolsonaro will almost certainly join the PL
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Nov 2021

Eleven edits to the Court-ordered payments PEC still need to be analyzed, and in order to keep the text unchanged, the government needs to gather at least 308 votes for each edit. President Jair Bolsonaro will almost certainly join the PL, and given the ongoing negotiations, the PP could represen...

Chile: Piñera Impeached
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Nov 2021

As if a Social Explosion, a pandemic, a constitutional convention and a general election weren’t enough, Chile has now added presidential impeachment to the mix, as the House of Deputies voted early Tuesday morning in favor of a ‘Constitutional Accusation’, or impeachment, of Sebastián Piñera. Ac...

​A pleasant surprise
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Nov 2021

Despite the spike in covid19 infections due to the delta variant and the tightening of lockdown restrictions, the Philippine economy grew at a surprisingly strong 7.1% yoy growth clip in 3Q21, or 3.8% on a sequential seasonally-adjusted basis. The main driver was a 7% qoq growth in household cons...

Economics: Sluggish economic growth and a weak job market for the foreseeable future
MEXICO · Report · 08 Nov 2021

The economic activity indicators recently published by Inegi tell an all too familiar tale of the economy’s increasingly lethargic recovery that marks a significant deceleration compared to the rebound experienced during the first half of the year. This week we delve further into the preliminary ...

Russia and Belarus step closer to unity as 4,000 illegal immigrants mass on the Belarus-Polish Border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2021

On November 4 Putin and Lukashenka met to sign a road map to reintegrate the two nations. In 1999 they signed a treaty aiming at full reunion. However, Belarus has dragged its feet on this. Belarus is under Western sanctions. Belarus is desperate it has been obliged to accede to Russian demands. ...

Politics: The fight against corruption and the pursuit of justice are among issues still pending under the 4T
MEXICO · Report · 08 Nov 2021

Despite the constant barrage of public declarations affirming that the fight against corruption is nothing less than the centerpiece of his governmental program, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been more talk than action, with results in cases involving high-level officials being extrem...

What is The True Dimension of The Fiscal Problem?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Nov 2021

When one speaks of fiscal unanchoring, the fear immediately arises that the country is once again headed toward “fiscal dominance”. This is not the case now, and the main reason is that the Central Bank is now formally independent and will use the instrument within its grasp – the SELIC rate – to...

The Chamber tries to conclude the vote on the Court-ordered payments PEC, Minister Paulo Guedes is going to the House to talk about his accounts abroad, Sergio Moro joins the Podemos, practically confirming his presidential candidacy.
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Nov 2021

The Chamber tries to conclude the vote on the Court-ordered payments PEC. Due to the results of the first round vote, there are risks for the government. Minister Paulo Guedes is going to the House to talk about his accounts abroad. The Senate Economic Affairs Committee votes on the privatization...

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