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Russia imposes digital passes due to coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2021

On November 1 TASS news agency reported the new scheme. People will have to show a pass to enter certain buildings. The system was used in Moscow briefly in the summer of 2021. The scannable barcode system will combat the spread of black market passes and forged vaccination certificates. Russia i...

A big step is made towards ending the domestic debt moratorium
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Nov 2021

The statutory moratorium on bank debts, introduced for domestic households and non-financial enterprises as a protection against the initial Covid shock in March 2020, ended in its original form yesterday (October 31). So far, the aforementioned types of borrowers have enjoyed the right to a mora...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Nov 2021

The news about the evolution of the pandemic in Brazil continues to be upbeat: the seven-day moving average of the number of deaths is stable at around 300, and 74% of the population has received at least one vaccine dose, while 55% have completed the immunization cycle. However, there are big di...

Economics: New reform, inflation and supply bottlenecks are among growth risks
MEXICO · Report · 01 Nov 2021

Economic data released in October provided further confirmation that the Mexican economy continues to sustain some momentum even as year-earlier comparisons are no longer as easy as they had been. Private consumption and retail sales continued to expand but have yet to fully rebound to pre-pandem...

Politics: Civil society organizations under fire from AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 01 Nov 2021

Next year’s miscellaneous tax bill contains provisions that would deliver a serious blow to civil society organizations (SCOs) involved in charitable endeavors. Currently individuals can deduct up to 7% of their income for charitable donations, plus an additional 15% for other expenses such as he...

The polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula will continue and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2021

A crucial week for Auxílio Brasil –​ if the Court-ordered payments PEC is not approved in the House, the government will resort to a Plan B that includes the return of the Emergency Aid program. A truck drivers' strike is scheduled for today. Anatel will hold the 5G auction this week. This wee...

Turkey Covid Watch - November 1, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 01 Nov 2021

The downward trend in cases that started two weeks ago has solidified with cases falling, albeit at a moderate pace.

Tentative IMF deal struck, as presidential popularity tumbles, and recovery wanes
UKRAINE · Report · 01 Nov 2021

Autumn is traditionally intense in Ukraine, and this year is no exception. A staff-level agreement with the IMF, the Pandora Papers, the replacement of the speaker, the president’s falling ratings, and a new, more virulent wave of COVID-19 are only the most important issues. Two long-awaited e...

The truck drivers' strike today should be small, the Court-ordered payments PEC should be put to a vote on Wednesday, and the 5G auction should be held on the same day
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2021

The truck drivers’ strike is expected to be small today. Isolated strikes are expected to take place, and efforts will be made to demobilize the demonstrations. Regarding the Court-ordered payments PEC, the government still doesn't have enough votes (308) to approve the text but there is room for...

South Africa’s recovery is driven by the commodity price boom– but tapering off
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 01 Nov 2021

Households: South African households took a big hit from the Covid-19 pandemic, and domestic demand has expectedly been adversely affected.Even though household consumption expenditure has undergone a relatively fast recovery, downside risks remain. Unemployment: Unemployment once again reache...

Consolidation of the fiscal side
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Nov 2021

The Indonesian government is in a balancing act toward fiscal consolidation in the midst of its effort to further stimulate the economy. By law, the budget deficit should be set below 3% starting in 2023. So far, defying the skeptics, the outcome is encouraging, even though it might be deraile...

China to fund the defense of Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2021

On October 30 Dushanbe approved of a new Chinese-funded base on the border with Afghanistan. The government has offered to give full control of the extant Chinese base to Beijing and to make it rent-free in return for being given weapons gratis. That is according to confidential documents as repo...

Winter has come
TURKEY · Report · 31 Oct 2021 · 1 response

As Erdogan meets European leaders and President Biden on the sidelines of G20 Summit, his presumably declining health comes to fore for two reasons. First, the world press is now alerted to the notion and will scrutinize his behavior closely. Secondly, if Erdogan were to suffer another health eme...

The shekel appreciated sharply last week, probably due to less FX intervention by the BoI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 31 Oct 2021

The pace of shekel appreciation has accelerated The shekel appreciated by 1.5% last week (against the basket of currencies), and by 1.7% in October, as BOI intervention declined. Yet, Pressure for appreciation is likely to continue on strong fundamentals and FDI. Nevertheless, we maintain our inf...

Moldova and Russia makes gas deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Oct 2021

On October 29 Gazprom signed a deal with Moldova. It extends the current contract. Moldova had declared a state of emergency after Gazprom raised prices. Moldovia is a former Soviet country. It made its first ever gas deal with a country other than Russia in a desperate bid to secure affordable e...

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