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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Government spending is skyrocketing
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Nov 2020

Inflation slowed down surprisingly in October, to 21 percent from 29 percent in September. Public spending didn’t ramp up nearly as strongly as it usually does in October, while tax collection was more vigorous than we had anticipated. The money supply (M2) expanded by merely 19 percent, a pace c...

The current account widens in October, while imports may have remained stable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2020

The Russian Central bank reported that in 10m20 the current account surplus reached $29.9bn, which means that in October alone this surplus was rather strong having reached $5.8bn. In 9m20 the current account surplus was much lower – $24.1bn, and in 3Q20 it was just $2.5bn. The trade balance wide...

Week November 10
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Nov 2020

We may be seeing beginning signs of the industrial/FAI-driven stimulus weakening, but the data is mixed. Cement prices are declining but float glass prices jumped. Rebar inventory growth is slowing. One theory is that the early stages of property development, which use cement, have tapered off wh...

​Messrs. Lutfi Elvan and Naci Agbal: The art of the feasible
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Nov 2020 · 3 responses

I’ve remained silent after the appointment of Mr. Naci Agbal to CBRT and the replacement of Berat Albayrak with Mr. Lutfi Elvan, because I waited for the second shoe to drop. My job is politics, which remains pregnant with the aftershocks of these two events. Politics is the art of feasible, and ...

Armenian PM under severe pressure to resign
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2020

On November 10 Armenia awoke to news of a ceasefire guaranteed by Russian troops. Armenia was occupying 13% of Azerbaijan in September. That is now down to 3%. Armenia has suffered a major defeat. Only Russian intervention prevented it from being a total rout. Furious protesters stormed the Armen...

Belarus expels 2 UK diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2020

On November 9 Minsk kicked out British diplomats who had been observing demonstrations. Belarus said the Britons had been taking part in ''destructive activities''. The United Kingdom responded by declaring two Belarussian diplomats personae non gratae.

Government backs down from proposed 2021 tax hike
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 10 Nov 2020

October saw the reversal of some government decisions, due both to rejection by citizens and to the occurrence of obvious errors, forcing a search for alternatives. A few days after the proposed 2021 budget was sent to Congress, the government announced that it was withdrawing from the proposal’s...

A constitutional crisis looms
UKRAINE · Report · 10 Nov 2020

Ukraine has entered a very turbulent period of its modern history. A ruling by the Constitutional Court to void the requirement for e-declarations has unfolded into a full-fledged constitutional crisis without any clear legal way out. Legal experts consider the Court’s ruling itself illegal, and ...

Lower for longer for sure
COLOMBIA · Report · 10 Nov 2020 · 1 response

The Central Bank was quick to act during the first days of the COVID lockdown, so Colombia took the lead in implementing one of the region’s first QE programs to prop up financial sector liquidity. The Bank was also instrumental in negotiating FCL enlargement with the IMF. Between March and Septe...

Unsurprising heavy disinflation reported for October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Nov 2020

This morning's statement by KSH (Central Statistical Office) revealed another marked drop by the yoy rate of CPI-inflation in October, to 3% from September's 3.4%. To a great extent, the reason was a significant base effect, as the monthly rate fell to 0.2% from last October's outstandingly high ...

​Again, double-digit GDP contraction
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Nov 2020

3Q GDP fell 11.5% yoy, “unsurprising” per the planning secretary given health and public transportation constraints that kept economic activity far below limits set by government. Were it not for the sizeable shrinkage in the external trade deficit, domestic demand alone would have dragged growth...

Russian peacekeepers to enforce ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2020

At 01:00 local time on November 10 Azerbaijan and Armenia signed an immediate ceasefire brokered by Russia. The current frontline is the ceasefire line therefore Azerabaijan shall retain land gained since September 27.2000 Russian peacekeepers will go to Nagorno Karabakh and be deployed for 5 yea...

Moscow stock market jumps
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2020

On November 9 shares on the Russian Bourse jumped as did the RUB. That is due to good news about a coroanvirus vaccine. Pfizer and BioNTech said their vaccine is in Phase 3 trials and it is 90% effective. A heartening report was published. The RUB leapt 2% against the USD and reached 76. That is ...

President Vizcarra is ousted
PERU · In Brief · 09 Nov 2020 · 2 responses

After a tense impeachment process that started on the morning of November 9, Congress voted by 105 votes, 19 against and 4 abstained, to oust President Martin Vizcarra. President Vizcarra was investigated by the Attorney General Office for corruption while he was Moquegua’s Governor, a small Stat...

Politics: A tall order for the new public security head
MEXICO · Report · 09 Nov 2020

With Alfonso Durazo’s departure from the Ministry of Public Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC) to run for governor of his home state, the first chapter of President López Obrador’s security policy has come to an end. But the next chapter may well prove as ineffective as Durazo’s tenure, in wh...

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