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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

New inflation forecast owing to severe gasoline shortage
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Sep 2020

We revise up our September-December 2020 monthly inflation forecasts to the 30-38 percent range, from 23-27 percent in our 11 September 2020 report. Gasoline shortages explain a faster-than-expected rise in prices in the first two weeks in September, and we strongly believe that shortages won’...

Bolsonaro’s popularity reaches 39%, poll shows
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity is increasing. According to the XP/Ipespe poll, published yesterday, the government’s positive ratings (great/good) reached 39%, surpassing the bad/very bad ratings (36%). The regular rating, in turn, was 24%. This is the first time since May of last year ...

Russian local elections show gains for opposition
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2020

On September 14 the results of local elections were posted. 18 of Russia's 85 regions elected governors. Some of these gubernatorial races were won by the opposition. Regional and city legislatures also held elections and there were some by-elections for Parliament.Widespread cheating by the main...

Switzerland agrees to return embezzled funds to Uzbekistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2020

On September 13 it was announced that Gulnara Karimova's confiscated assets will be returned to Uzbekistan. Karimova is the daughter of the late President Karimov. She is suspected of money laundering. An agreement has been signed by the Swiss and the Uzbeks. The funds are CHR 119 million. The mo...

Paulo Guedes’s complex formula and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2020

This is the final week for political parties to define candidates and alliances ahead of the November municipal elections. In congress, a session that had been scheduled to analyze presidential vetoes, including payroll tax exemptions and sanitation, was cancelled. In the economy, we highlight th...

Politics: Same cast of party players in 2021
MEXICO · Report · 14 Sep 2020

Earlier this month electoral authorities gave "thumbs down" to six of the seven parties that had been working for more than a year to meet the requirements to obtain ballot status and public funding for next year’s midterms. Two were the product of competing currents within the national teachers’...

Woman power
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Sep 2020

As Simon Espinosa, a well-known and respected journalist and member of the anti-corruption commission, wrote, it has taken two women, Attorney General Diana Salazar and Judge Daniela Camacho to give Ecuadorians back​ some confidence in the formerly captive system of justice. Over 20 cases of c...

Russia and Cyprus agree on tax
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2020

On September 8 an agreement was signed allowing Russia to raise tax on Russian companies incorporated in Cyprus. Their profits earned abroad and remitted to Russia will be taxed at a higher rate than before. It was 5% or 10%. It will be 15% now. There are exemptions for state owned companies.Puti...

Ant Group IPO
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Sep 2020

Ant Group’s proposed IPO, expected soon, raises the profile of China’s largest private online financial company. However, there are macroeconomic and political considerations that will affect the growth trajectory of both Ant and other private online financial firms. There are also competitive th...

Market pessimism on the back of plans for renewed lockdown
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Sep 2020

The expected second closure is expected to slow growth, increase unemployment and push the fiscal deficit higher. The impact on inflation is expected to be minimal as weaker PC demand is offset by a slightly weaker shekel. Slowing growth supports further expansionary monetary policy, an issue dis...

Economics: Same inertial budget defects as before
MEXICO · Report · 14 Sep 2020

Many analysts, ratings agencies and financial institutions were quick to describe the 2021 budget package the López Obrador Administration sent Congress last week as optimistic, especially regarding how it anticipates GDP growth and budgetary revenues, mainly those from oil, with its unrealistic ...

Budget and growth: Russia’s 2020 budget spending depends on its ability to borrow
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Sep 2020

Rosstat reported that Russia's GDP was down by 8% in 2Q20 and provided the GDP sectoral breakdown by production. A month ago, when Rosstat announced its flash estimate of 2Q20 GDP, the decline was a bit deeper – 8.5%. Ongoing upward revisions are generally in line with our long-standing view that...

Revisiting 2021 growth outlook
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 Sep 2020

We are revising our overly pessimistic 4% GDP growth forecast for 2021. The number suggests that recovery will be in fits and starts coinciding with repeated region-wide lockdowns. While we cannot from experience rule that out, it is not our base case scenario. Rather, we expect ongoing experimen...

CA surplus reaches 4.6% GDP in Q220
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2020

Fundamentals continue to support a strong shekel The CA surplus in Q220 increased to 4.4bn USD from 3.5bn in Q120 and 4.0bn one year ago. This improvement was due to a decline in the trade deficit and an increase in the service surplus. During the Covid crisis, merchandise imports declined more r...

On sanctions, COVID and the downgrade
TURKEY · Report · 13 Sep 2020

The final trimester of the year may turn into the season for sanctions on Turkey, with EU and a potential Biden administration turning to the stick approach to punish perceived transgressions. There is no prospect of war between Turkey and Greece in East Med, but hostility to her now extends to G...

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