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Priority reform proposals have been submitted and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2020

This will be a shorter week due to this week's holiday. In Congress, expectation surrounds the vote on presidential vetoes. Minister Luiz Fux takes over as president of the Federal Supreme Court, replacing Minister Dias Toffoli. In the economy, we highlight the release of the August IPCA. This...

FX intervention accelerates, additional monetary tools likely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Sep 2020

The BoI purchased 2.56bn USD in August and 14.1bn YTD in order to slow shekel appreciation. The shekel appreciated by 1.1% in August (against the basket) and by 2.7% YTD. Appreciation is supported by a CA surplus (which apparently improved in Q3 due to the lack of flights abroad), net FDI, foreig...

Correa's Sentence for Eight Years of Jail is Ratified
ECUADOR · In Brief · 07 Sep 2020

Today at 3 pm Quito's time, the Criminal Cassation Court ratified the sentence of eight years of prison for bribery for Rafael Correa, Jorge Glass (former vice-president), three former ministers including Alexis Mera (Correa's legal advisor), other memebers of the Correistas' group, and several C...

The opposition split
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Sep 2020

The December 2020 legislative elections mark the end of a political cycle. Maduro needs to achieve a measure of stability to remain in power until the 2024 presidential election and mitigate the risk of the status quo with an interim government that enjoys international support, unwilling to reco...

Politics: Squaring off in decisive Legislature
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2020

The third and last year of the federal legislature elected along with President López Obrador in 2018 holds special importance for AMLO’s governing project. Given the risk that the government’s commanding majority in the Chamber of Deputies may not survive the June 6 midterms, he is looking to lo...

Economics: External accounts project uncertainty in the near future
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2020

External account data clearly captured the extent of the profound economic contraction in April-May, including a precipitous fall in demand that tended to ease up during June-July, but as yet there is no evidence of a clear recovery trend. Second quarter balance of payments results showed Mexi...

Two bits of good news on retail sales and industrial output
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Sep 2020

Most recent data releases by the Statistical Office (KSH) have provided for some rare good news on the economy, even if only in relative terms.For one, retail sales rose by 1% yoy in July, following -4.3% yoy in Q2, the latter contributing to a -8.6% yoy outcome for household consumption in the s...

Fiscal deficit reaches 8.1% GDP LTM, tax revenues surge in August
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Sep 2020

Domestic demand improved in August, but renewed closure likely: • Weekly credit card purchases increased by 3.8% m/m in August, both due to summer seasonality but in addition the fact that Israelis remain home this summer is private consumption supportive. • Consumer confidence improved in Augu...

Kazakhstan bans foreign accounts for bureaucrats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Sep 2020

On September 2 Kazakhstan announced that politicians, bureaucrats, judges and relatives thereof will be forbidden from having bank accounts in other countries. This is because some public officials have been found to have salted away huge sums of money that cannot be accounted for. Media reports ...

Gas hopes, harsh realities
TURKEY · Forecast · 06 Sep 2020

Ankara is trying to turn around a weak economy and poor local sentiment through divisive politics, confrontational foreign policy and promises of great riches from gas discoveries. Will it work? We don’t see how it possibly could, which means further market volatility is highly likely, making the...

Fiscal deficit reaches 8.1% GDP LTM, tax revenues surge in August
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Sep 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 7.9.20 Domestic demand improved in August, but renewed closure likely: Weekly credit card purchases increased by 3.8% m/m in August, both due to summer seasonality but in addition the fact that Israelis remain home this summer is private consumption suppo...

Government forced to finance a 9.3% of GDP deficit
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 06 Sep 2020

Just two weeks after taking office, President Luis Abinader faces the urgent task of financing a public deficit that is almost four times higher than it was before the pandemic. Due to the fall in tax revenues, and to greater pressure on spending to address the health crisis and reactivate the...

It’s time to (cautiously) reopen
COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Sep 2020

The unprecedented 15.7% contraction in Q2 was hardly a surprise. But there is uncertainty over the distribution of “pain” across sectors and aggregate demand, and the depth of the collapse. Almost all sectors were hard hit. But agriculture, financial and insurance activities, and real estate acti...

Government withdraws request for urgent status for the Tax Reform proposal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2020

Today, September 4, the government withdrew its request for urgent status for the Tax Reform proposal it submitted to Congress. If the request for urgent status (submitted on July 21 along with the proposal) were granted, the text would block the agenda next week, preventing the Lower House from ...

No deflation in August, by year-end inflation is likely to exceed 4%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2020

Rosstat reported that m-o-m inflation was at 0% in August, even though some deflation due to seasonal factors was earlier expected. Even though prices of fruits and vegetables fell, so that food prices in total were down by 0.9% m-o-m, and by 1.0% y-o-y, it was not enough to offset increased pric...

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