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Russia’s political and pandemic update: Russia’s alienation to deepen amid Navalny saga
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Sep 2020

As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Russia exceeded 1 mln people, while Russian economic performance has improved in recent months, Russians became a bit more optimistic in August, even though the daily numbers of newly infected people stopped declining in mid-August and fluctuated below...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai issues, Oman VAT approved, PMIs weaken, Israelis fly to UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Sep 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Dubai issued $2bn in bonds and sukuk, and Bahrain started talks with banks about an issuance to take advantage of the sharp fall in yields. * The first Israel-UAE flight t...

US concerned about new Chinese army base in Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2020

On September 2 the US Government said that China is seeking to establish a military base. Beijing has a deeply sympathetic relationship with Dushanbe. Chinese companies are increasingly important in the economy. There are 7,000 Russian troops in Tajikistan. Russia regards this former Soviet count...

President of Kazakhstan plans to reorganize the state
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2020

On September 1 Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev addressed his people. He announced a major overhaul of state structures. The Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms will be set up. Another as-yet-unnamed agency will be created to manage economic competition.There is growing disenchantment with economic sta...

The NBU leaves prime rate at 6% amid scandal court ruling on Privatbank
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Sep 2020

Yesterday, on September 3rd the NBU Board again decided to leave prime rate unchanged at 6%. Press-release mentioned reviving demand and energy prices’ increase. Also the NBU assumes continued cooperation with the IMF. Among major risks the NBU mentioned “negative impact of certain court rulings ...

The government details its Administrative Reform proposal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Sep 2020

Today, September 3, the federal government formally submitted to Congress the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) on Administrative Reform. The text proposes a series of changes in the rules of civil service, such as prohibiting the compulsory retirement of civil servants as a form of pu...

Russian Ruble tumbles as Germany says Navalny was poisoned
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2020

On September 2 German doctors announced that they are certain that Russian anti-corruption campaigner Alexey Navalny was poisoned with a nerve agent called novichok. Whether the accusation is true or not the impact on the RUB has been dramatic. The RUB saw its most abrupt fall in 6 months. The RU...

The employment picture
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Sep 2020

The Philippine Statistics Authority released this morning its labor force survey for the third quarter. Overall, the numbers paint an improving employment picture in 3Q following the strict lockdown in 2Q. However, the 10% unemployment is at its highest since 2004 and 17% underemployment since 20...

Inflation remained elevated in August
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2020

Consumer prices rose by 0.86%, m/m, in August, leaving the 12-month rate unchanged at 11.8% from July, broadly as expected. The twelve-month domestic-PPI inflation rose markedly however, to 11.5% from 8.3% in July, attesting to the cost-push, effects stemming from recent lira weakness (Graphs 1-2).

The forint's weak trend continued on two events yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Sep 2020

The forint's weak trend, which started with the Finance Ministry's sharp upward revision of this year's fiscal deficit forecast and then continued due to the MNB effectively tolerating and even actively assisting fiscal loosening, went further yesterday, EURHUF moving to the upper half of the 355...

Bolsonaro’s popularity reaches 39%
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2020

The Exame/Ideia Big Data poll, conducted between August 24 and 31, shows that Jair Bolsonaro’s positive ratings (great/good) have reached 39%. The negative ratings (bad/very bad), on the other hand, accounted for 39%, and the regular rating adds up to 20%. According to Big Data, the poll reflects...

Belarus arrests student protesters as Lukashenka tries to consolidate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2020

On September 1 police arrested almost 100 students demonstrating against the president. The protesters called the police fascist. It was the first day of the academic year. Hundreds more student protesters were not arrested. Protests have been ongoing since the disputed August 9 presidential elec...

Walking a tightrope
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 02 Sep 2020

When we flagged a looming recession back in April and projected a deep 7% GDP contraction in May, the most pessimistic at the time, we had expected that after one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, the economy would slowly transition by year-end into a “new normal.” Although the govern...

Facebook accuses Russia of meddling in US election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2020

On September 1 Facebook said that Russians are trying to sway the US presidential election. The FBI has been investigating. 13 Facebook accounts and 2 pages were set up by people claiming to be journalists. The accounts were aimed at left wingers. They have been taken down by Facebook for breakin...

India withdraws participation in Russian military drills
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2020

On August 31 New Delhi announced that its troops will not take part in the KavKaz 2020 exercises in Russia. The drills are due to take place in September 2020. India says it needs its soldiers at home because of the threat from China. China has been massing troops on its frontier with India. In J...

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