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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Central Asia faces winter of fuel and food shortages
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Oct 2021

It has started snowing in Central Asia. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are using more coal than before for heating.Kyrgyzstan relies on hydropower. A drought in 2021 means water levels are so low that little electricity is generated by dams. National Energy Holding Company said that there will be rest...

The MNB tightened again, but government speakers stole the show
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Oct 2021

At its regular monthly rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Council caused no surprise, in the sense that it did exactly what it previously said it would do. It raised the base rate and the two ends of the interest rate corridor by another 15 bps, making the base rate 1.8% and the total rate hike 1...

Russia suspends its mission to NATO
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Oct 2021

Earlier in October 2021 NATO expelled 8 Russian diplomats. NATO accused them of being undeclared intelligence officers. On October 18 Moscow's riposte was to withdraw its delegation temporarily. The move will take effect from November 1.Russia temporarily withdrew its ambassador to the USA earlie...

Pressure is building for the financing of the Auxílio Brasil program, truck drivers demand a solution to the fuel price issue, and the Special Committee on the court-ordered payments PEC meets today to vote on the rapporteur’s report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2021

President Jair Bolsonaro said he will make decisions on the emergency aid program and the diesel issues later this week. The economic team supports approving the court-ordered payments PEC and the income tax bill to make room for the Auxílio Brasil program. Financing of the Auxílio Brasil program...

​Main opposition leader Kilicdaroglu throws down the gauntlet
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Oct 2021

I remarked in our recent Weekly Tracker that “The first thing we notice is very high morale. First time in a decade opposition parties AND their constituents smell victory, acting as if their ascent to power is inevitable. To some extent, we observe this is demoralizing AKP-MHP voters and loyalis...

Inflation, and Interventions in the Foreign Exchange Market?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Oct 2021

For some time the financial market clung to the notion that the increase of the interest rate, necessary to bring inflation to the target, would attract capital, appreciating the Real and helping the Central Bank in its task. However, since the start of the monetary tightening cycle in March, thi...

Economics: Export sector continues to grow even as obstacles slow the pace of recovery
MEXICO · Report · 18 Oct 2021

The export sector has been the main driver of Mexico’s economic recovery so far in 2021, but that catalyst has not been firing evenly on all cylinders. As industries make up for the time and output lost last year, most branches’ installed capacity utilization has recovered to, or improved upon pr...

Problems Involving the Discrepancy of the Data in the Trade Balance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Oct 2021

Until 2017, the data on imports and exports gathered by the Secretariat of Foreign Commerce (Secex) of the Ministry of the Economy and by the Central Bank had few discrepancies. Since 2018, however, the two data series have been increasingly deviating from each other. While in 2020, the Secex reg...

Politics: US-Mexico "framework" a good outline, but very short on specifics and commitments
MEXICO · Report · 18 Oct 2021 · 1 response

It is unquestionably positive that Mexico is talking with the White House after the Cienfuegos affair severely damaged ties a year ago, and that the October 8 High-Level Security Dialogue produced a joint outline of bilateral priorities to be addressed immediately, especially in matters of combat...

The outlook for pending legislation and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Oct 2021

The Special Committee of the House votes on the court-ordered payments PEC. The president of the House, Arthur Lira, will then try to hold the first round vote in the plenary. In the Senate, this is the last week of activity in the Pandemic CPI. The final report will be submitted on Wednesday. Vo...

The IMF reports Staff-Level Agreement, conditionality is not clear
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Oct 2021

A month of online negotiations and the IMF mission finally gives an encouraging signal: a staff-level agreement and an extension of ongoing SBA Program till June 2022. However, the press-release mentions that only “Continued steadfast implementation of strong policies in these areas, consistent w...

Turkey Covid Watch - October 18, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 18 Oct 2021

Cases rose and then fell during the past two weeks, while deaths remain persistent. If the very recent trends persist, this will help stem building pressures on the health sector, but we are not so sanguine that this will turn out to be the case.

Rumors circulate about Minister Paulo Guedes resigning, truck drivers may organize another strike on November 1, and O Globo will hold a debate between the PSDB’s pre-candidates on Tuesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Oct 2021

We think the rumor about Minister Paulo Guedes’s resigning is unlikely to be true. A possible explanation for the rumor is the pressure for the extension of emergency aid payments. Regarding the possible truckers’ strike, we think it will be small — if it occurs at all. O Globo will hold a debate...

Worries on inflation overshadow the strength of the recovery
ARGENTINA · Report · 18 Oct 2021

In the weeks immediately before the primary elections, the government thought that a stronger-than-expected economic recovery would favor its electoral chances. But the results proved otherwise as inflation overshadowed the strength of economic recovery. In spite of the clear evidence that inflat...

Coronavirus cases reach record in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Oct 2021

On October 17 Russia broke its own record for new diagnoses yet again. 34,000 new cases have been reported. There were almost 1,000 coronavirus deaths in 24 hours. There are only 20,000 beds left in hospitals. These will all soon be full.The Health Minister urged all retired physicians to get vac...

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