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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

According to the Secretariat of Economic Policy, services need to grow by 17% to reach pre-COVID levels
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2020

The service sector, the main employer in the country, still needs to grow by 17% to reach pre-pandemic levels, according to a study published by the Secretariat of Economic Policy. According to the Secretariat, growth in the service sector has not been comparable to the other sectors. The ser...

South Africa’s current account balance reverts to a deficit in Q2 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Sep 2020

Another unwelcome economic metric came out today as data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) indicates that the country’s current account switched to a deficit in the second quarter of 2020 after it recorded its first surplus since 2003 during the first quarter of 2020. It is worth ...

The CBR plans to publish the anticipated long-term trajectory of its key rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Sep 2020

Today CBR published the draft of the “Key directions of the monetary policy in 2021-23”. In addition to updating macroeconomic projections and introducing various scenarios of the development of the Russian economy, the regulator indicated that it is almost ready to start forecasting and publishi...

The Cabinet removal is on the agenda
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Sep 2020

A lot of talk about the potential removal of Shmygal Cabinet. Top speakers from Servant of the People are expressing dissatisfaction about the Minster of Economy, Igor Petrashko, and Minister of Finance, Sergiy Marchenko. Yesterday there was a hearing at the Parliamentary committee on finance, ta...

Russian banks told to make sure Belarus gets RUB
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Sep 2020

On September 9 Reuters reported that the government has instructed to ensure a flow of RUB to beleaguered Belarussian banks. Prime Minister Mishustin has given instructions to Sberbank, VTB and VEB. These are all state owned and they have branches in Belarus. Many people in Belarus are withdrawin...

Guedes minimizes differences with Maia and shows optimism
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Sep 2020

During his participation in a video conference today, Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes, sought to minimize his differences with the President of the Lower House, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ). According to Guedes, his “misalignment” with Maia is “natural” in light of their differences over the debate...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Sep 2020

At the start of September, the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases reached 4 million, slightly over 6 months after the first recorded case of contagion. Only the United States surpasses that number, with 6.1 million people infected on the same date. The good news is that the first signs have appea...

GDP – How far will it fall in 2020? How fast will it recover?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Sep 2020

With the contraction of 9.7% in the second quarter, and the revision of the first-quarter result to -2.5%, Brazil’s GDP accumulated a decline of 12% in the first six months of 2020. There are no doubts that the bottom of the well has already been reached, but doubts persist about the pace of reco...

China virus check – week ending September 7, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Sep 2020

Good news continued this week. Sales of autos and property have continued to rise for most of the recent periods. Also, the film industry maintained its very high levels YoY due to the release of new films and a clear desire among citizens for entertainment. There seems to be a definite return to...

NATO countries stage military exercise in Georgia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Sep 2020

On September 8 over 2,700 troops from several NATO countries took part in joint military drills in Georgia. The exercise is called "Noble Partner 2020" and will last 11 days. The US says its participation is intended to deepen co-operation with Georgia and other partners.Live fire exercises and t...

International doctors skeptical about Russian coronavirus vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Sep 2020

On September 4 an article a UK medical journal called the Lancet published a dubious judgment on Russia's Sputnik V vaccine. Physicians and research scientists have grave doubts about the effectiveness and safety of the drug. The scientific data provided by Russia supposedly include inexplicable ...

August inflation unsurprisingly rose a bit further, explaining yesterday's MNB move
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2020

CPI-inflation was reported at 0% mom, 3.9% yoy, the latter slightly up from 3.8% in July and in line with analyst expectation. Core inflation also went up moderately, to 4.7% yoy from the previous 4.5% by the KSH's basic measure, to 4.2% yoy from 4.1% by the MNB's tax-adjusted indicator, and to 4...

Agreement to overturn veto on exemption from payroll tax
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2020

Today, the leader of the government in Congress, Senator Eduardo Gomes (MDB-TO), told the newspaper Valor Econômico that an agreement is underway to overturn, next week, President Jair Bolsonaro’s veto of the extension on the exemption from payroll tax in 17 sectors. The exemption will be exte...

No surprise as South Africa’s economy contracts by 51% in Q2 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Sep 2020

The 2Q GDP results had been expected to be the worst in decades because of the effect the Covid-19 pandemic has had on the country and the economy. The second quarter was the period during which strict lockdowns, some of the strictest globally, were implemented in the country, which of course gre...

Coronavirus vaccine mass trials in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2020

On September 8 Moscow announced that a coronavirus vaccine has been rolled out to the public. Up until now it has been mainly administered to soldiers. Now it is being trialed on volunteers from the general public.The vaccine - named Sputnik V- is due to enter general circulation. The Health Mini...

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