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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit hit $78bn, GDP data for UAE & Kuwait, Covid gets political in Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Mar 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * Saudi Arabia’s deficit more than doubled to $78bn despite above-budget non-oil revenue. * Spending was up by 2% y/y due to Covid, but salaries and capex were cut in line with plans. * Saudi Arabia lifted most Covi...

Russian nickel company pays USD 2 billion in compensation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2021

On March 10 Nornickel paid its fine for causing an environmental cataclysm. The accident in April 2020 impacted the Norilsk Region. The funds were paid to the Federal budget. Norilsk will receive less than 1% of the monies. Environmentalists lambasted the Kremlin for paying only a derisory fracti...

Russian corporations were profitable in 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Mar 2021

Financial data from 2020 was published by Rosstat on March 9 proving that almost every major Russian coporation made a profit. The government's fateful decision to eschew a second lockdown paid dividends economically. However, the price for that has been 400,000 excess deaths. Corporate profits w...

Decent fiscal performance in 2m21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Mar 2021

The Ministry of Finance reported that in February total federal budget revenues reached R1.25 trln ow which R0.545 trln came in as the oil-and-gas prices. Even though the Urals oil price in February 2021 was higher than in February 2020 ($60.78/bbl versus $54.24/bbl), oil-and-gas revenues in Febr...

South Africa’s economy recovered during H2-2020, but not enough to avert the 7% total GDP decline in 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Mar 2021

Real GDP, arguably the most noteworthy economic metric, indicates that South Africa continued its recovery in the fourth quarter of 2020, registering a growth rate of 6.3% quarter on quarter on an annualized basis. This also marked a somewhat return to "normal" annualized GDP prints following the...

Balance of payments strengthens in early 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2021

According to the CBR’s preliminary estimates, Russia’s current account surplus was at $13.1bn in 2m21, while the trade surplus reached $17.6bn. The latter figure is equal to the combined trade surplus in November and December 2020. The CBR has not yet published statistics on exports and imports –...

Russia slows Twitter due to content dispute
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2021

On March 9 Twitter feeds were slowed down. The government is angry that Twitter has not been removing prohibited content. The Russian Communications Authority announced that it had taken this action. Twitter has been slowed on all cellphones and 50% of computers.Twitter has been fined in relation...

Russian food prices rising
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2021

On March 8 the Russian Statistics Agency published data showing that comestible prices are seeing inflation-busting increases. In February 2021 consumer prices went up 5.7% YoY. The food price rise was 7.7% YoY. Food prices have been rising worldwide. In Russia in 2020 food prices went up 6.7%. F...

​The Lula effect and the 2022 election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2021 · 1 response

The decision by Minister Edson Fachin, of the Federal Supreme Court, which places Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the presidential race, obviously changes the scenario. Despite the disorganization on the left, Lula has a strong potential to unite political forces, including those to his right on ...

The Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 09 Mar 2021

Special points to highlight in this issue: • On Friday Li Keqiang announced that the GDP growth target for 2021 would be “above 6 percent”. This is well below consensus expectations for 2021 which, in my opinion, have always been too high. During the meeting Li Keqiang and other officials also ...

Joblessness climbs; quality worsens
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Mar 2021

January’s Labor Force Survey (LFS) showed the country’s employment rate staying at 91.3%, same as last quarter, but with the share of the underemployed rising to 16% from 14.4%. Combined with an unemployment rate of 8.7%, joblessness rose to 23.3% in January from 21.9% last quarter. Although the ...

Quite favorable inflation numbers for February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Mar 2021

The headline rate of CPI-inflation was reported this morning as 0.7% mom, 3.1% yoy, the latter up from a stable 2.7% yoy in each of the previous three months. This perfectly matched market expectation and almost perfectly matched ours. But more importantly, the report's details reflect a favorabl...

Higher oil prices offer temporary relief but could stall reforms
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 09 Mar 2021

Higher-than-expected oil prices are great news for the Gulf, particularly the weaker sovereigns, and deficits should be lower than originally feared; in the most bullish case even Saudi Arabia could achieve a surplus. However, even then, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait would still have significant finan...

Russia and EU spar over Sputnik V
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2021

The European Medicines Agency is considering approving the Russian coronavirus vaccine. An EMA official dismissed taking Sputnik V as ''playing Russian roulette''. Russia is mortally offended and demanded that this person apologize. Moscow says the remarks show political interference in the EMA's...

Justice Fachin’s decision means Lula is eligible to run
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2021 · 1 response

On Monday, Minister Edson Fachin, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), decided to annul the convictions of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 13th Circuit Court of Curitiba. According to the minister, the cases should be the responsibility of the Federal Justice Court of the Federal...

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