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​GULF WEEKLY: Biden calls King Salman, Saudi issues €1.5bn, Kuwait MPs oppose asset withdrawals
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Feb 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * A temporary IAEA nuclear monitoring agreement provides space for US-Iran talks. * The US bombed pro-Iranian militia on the Syria-Iraq border, in retaliation for an attack last week. * Saudi issued €1.5bn in 3 and ...

More problems in Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Feb 2021

A number of events have raised the level of concern among local residents about the future of Hong Kong. These include the arrest of media enterpreneur Jimmy Lai and of former leglisator and pro-democracy activist Martin Lee, the imposition of nationalist curriculum in the lower schools, and the ...

Armenian Army denounces the prime minister
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Feb 2021

On February 24 the army issued a statement expressing its lack of confidence in Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyam. The generals said that he was ''incapable of making adequate decisions.'' Pashinyan brought 20 000 admirers onto the streets in a show of force. Pahinyan said that the army top brass' s...

Russian public debt up 40% in one year
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2021

On February 23 the Audit Chamber published data demonstrating that Russia's public sector borrowing ballooned in 2020. The national debt is USD 257 billion: that is 17.8% of GDP. The debt is not large by global standards. However, the government has boasted of the success of its fiscal discipline...

Russian Anti Monopoly Service warns Yandex
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2021

On 24 February it was reported in RBK that the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service (FAS) has Yandex in its crosshairs. The company has been ordered to prevent its search engine from discriminating against companies disfavored by Yandex. Yandex has a month to address the issue. It could challenge the FA...

The 2021 National Budget Speech signals relief for consumers, companies and investment attraction
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Feb 2021

The South African government has stressed on a number of occasions – namely, the Mid-Term Budget Policy Statement, after the sovereign ratings downgrade, the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan, the African National Congress January 8th Statement and the 2021 State of the Nation Address – t...

Slow crawl out of the trenches
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 25 Feb 2021

2021 is shaping up to be another lackluster year for the local economy. Hopes of achieving herd immunity have been dashed by delayed vaccine procurement, and the lack of vaccines has meant more caution in relaxing restrictions, keeping segments of the population locked down and public transport a...

Economic resilience will stoke export growth
CHINA · Report · 25 Feb 2021

Because of the long Chinese New Year holiday, the statistics bureau, as is typical in January, only announced price, financial and PMI data. Producer prices increased fast between June 2020 and January 2021, and finally turned positive. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods rose 1% m/...

COSTA RICA: Turning point ahead?
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Feb 2021

Costa Rica will be struggling to grow, and to clean up its public finances, this year and next. The outlook for economic activity in 2021 will mark the end of the recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. It also could mark a turning point for the long-standing fiscal deficit, if the Extended...

Constitutional crisis in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2021

President Sandu's pick as prime minister has twice been rejected by Parliament.Parliament is dominated by the Socialist Party led by Igor Dodon. Dodon lost the presidential election to her in 2020.The Constitutional Court ruled against Sandu, saying she had to consult parliament before nominating...

18 companies pull out of Nord Stream 2 says USA
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Feb 2021

On February 23 Washington announced that companies were deserting the Russia to Germany undersea gas pipeline. The companies that have pulled will not be subject to sanctions. The US wants to scotch the pipeline because it says it makes the EU over dependent on Russia. The ulterior motive is that...

​Berat Albayrak is not the only problem TL is facing
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2021

This morning CBRT was forced to raise required reserve ratios by 200 basis points across the deposit maturity spectrum to defend the TL.As I write these lines, around Istanbul time noon, dollar/TL did not respond to the additional monetary tightening step, which may be because of rumors surfacing...

No policy change, no surprise at all at today's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Feb 2021

At its regular monthly rate-setting meeting today, the Monetary Council concluded exactly as we predicted in our monthly report published yesterday. The market also remained fundamentally unsurprised by the decision.The Council kept all policies unchanged and issued a statement that sounded rathe...

Russian macro: Emphasis on economic growth the country has been lacking
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 23 Feb 2021

The Russian economy has somehow weathered the 2020 pandemic storm, avoided a deep recession despite low energy prices and is going to bounce back in 2021. But this year looks challenging as well, albeit in a different sense. The country’s economic growth has looked extremely unimpressive on avera...

​Government launches Economic and Social Council
ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Feb 2021

Last Friday, President Alberto Fernandez announced the formal creation of an Economic and Social Council (ESC). It had been part of AF's political promises at the onset of his mandate but was delayed by the pandemic’s urgency. This interdisciplinary body, presided by National Secretary of Stra...

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