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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Russia in Brief: Pandemic affected the economy in 1Q20, but not yet much
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2020

Rosstat reported that retail sales were strongly up in March (by 5.6% y-o-y) which lifted the 1Q20 y-o-y growth to 4.3%. Growth accelerated both in the food and non-food segments which in 1Q20 were up by 3.6% and 5.0% y-o-y. Clearly such an acceleration was largely driven by preemptive purchases ...

Russia’s macro policy: A peculiar mix of lower rates and FX interventions
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2020

As the markets expected, the CBR cut its key policy rate by 50 bps on April 24, hinted at more rate cuts of around 100 bps, and announced that monetary policy is becoming more accommodative. This is undoubtedly a strong positive message for the OFZ market, which had rallied a lot in anticipation ...

Heading to the Abyss, at High Speed
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2020 · 1 response

The Bolsonaro administration had been trying to follow a liberal program aimed at restoring the country to steady growth. It was making very slow progress toward the reforms necessary for fiscal consolidation when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, dooming the country to a recession and destroying the pr...

Economics: Worse than anything in many decades and without a goverment strategy
MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2020

With the 2020 international economic outlook made much worse by what the IMF has termed the "Great Lockdown" and the deepening of the oil market depression, we at GEA adjusted our 2020 macroeconomic forecasts from those we released March 27. Some financial institutions and analysts are forecasti...

Economic activity has declined by 31%
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Apr 2020

The BoI estimates that economic activity at present is 31% below that of pre-Covid-19. Moody's lowered Israel's rating outlook to stable from positive (at A1). The Bank of Israel appears satisfied with present market conditions and liquidity. In politics, Israel has a unity government, which is l...

Russia banning grain exports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2020 · 1 response

On April 26 Russia announced that it is making most grain exports to most countries illegal until July 1 when the situation will be reviewed. The ban applies to rye, corn, barley and meslin which is an amalgam of wheat and rye. Eurasian Economic Union countries are exempted from the ban: Kazakhst...

Georgian economic stimulus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2020

On April 24 Georgia announced a stimulus package of USD 1.1 billion. That does not seem much but the country has 4 000 000 people and the average annual wage is about USD 3 000. The economy is anticipated to shrink 4% in 2020.Prime Minister Georgi Gakharia said 10% of the stimulus package will go...

A race against time
TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2020

Turkey’s daily corona cases declined to under 3K for the first time in April on Saturday, which gives support to President Erdogan’s plans to lift many of the restrictions of movement on industry and people. Yet, there are strong reasons to believe that official data doesn’t capture whole reality...

Economic activity has declined by 31%
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Apr 2020

The Bank of Israel estimates that economic activity at present is 31% below the pre-Covid-19 level. The number of employed has contracted by 40%. This estimate of low level of activity was following a partial opening of the closure. The Bank of Israel is forecasting inflation of -0.5% in the next...

The wolf took off the sheep’s skin
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2020

Easing the food industry’s operations and its distribution channels would be the way to go in order to mitigate the impact that Covid-19 contention measures and gasoline shortages have on local supplies. Instead, the government is reinstating price controls and de facto expropriating inventories ...

Russian mercenaries accused of chemical attack in Libya
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2020

On April 24 Libya accused Wagner Russian mercenaries of carrying out a chemical attack. The Government of National Accord (GNA) is the UN recognized government in Libya. The GNA said that Wagner Russian mercenaries carried out the attack to assist Khalifa Haftar who leads the Libyan National Acco...

The biggest crisis of the Bolsonaro government so far
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2020

The resignation of Sergio Moro from the Ministry of Justice and Public Security – a consequence of the dismissal of the director-general of the Federal Police (PF), Maurício Valeixo – represents a major loss for the Jair Bolsonaro government. Added to the symbolism of his departure, especially gi...

Russian Central Bank cuts interest rates
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

On April 24 the Russian Central Bank (CBR) cut interest rates to a level not seen since 2012. This is just as we predicted. CBR said the economy might diminish by 6% in 2020. The move was almost universally anticipated. The key rate was previously 6% and is now 5.5%. This is CBR's first response ...

EU to lend EUR 1.2 billion to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2020

On April 22 the EU announced that it would give a EUR 1.2 billion soft loan to Ukraine to deal coronavirus. This is because Ukraine is an EU enlargement country i.e., it has the long-term goal of joining the EU. The first installment is said to be imminent. The second installment will depend on U...

The consequences of Moro’s resignation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2020 · 1 response

The exit of the Minister of Justice and Public Security, Sergio Moro, from the Bolsonaro administration on the heels of the dismissal of the general-director of the Federal Police, Maurício Valeixo, has the potential to provoke profound changes. It is important to note that Moro’s exit, as the mo...

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