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EU imposes sanctions on Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2021

On February 22 the EU imposed sanctions on four Russian officials because of the incarceration of Alexei Navalny.The EU sanctions are less extensive than anticipated. Brussels is leaving the door open to compromise. Navalny's allies urged the EU to target Putin's billionaire cronies. The measures...

Politics: The geography of political violence, Part 3
MEXICO · Report · 22 Feb 2021

As we continue our series documenting how cartels and gangs are stoking all manner of criminal activities throughout the country and the political threat such violence poses to governance in this key election year, we turn our attention to the trends that have led to the pulverization of the once...

Economics: Fourth quarter labor market review
MEXICO · Report · 22 Feb 2021

Fourth quarter labor sector data and formal sector payroll numbers through January 2020 portray a greatly debilitated labor market, and there is as yet little clarity as to when we might begin to see any significant improvement. Further complicating the outlook is the sharp departure from trends ...

Discomfort in the Ministry of Economy and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Feb 2021

The government and congressional leaders expect to decide on the specifics of the new round of emergency stimulus payments this week. To make the program viable, the Senate should vote on the Emergency Amendment on Thursday, February 25, and send it to the House. The House and Senate may define t...

Pandemic, Fiscal Risk and Yield Curve
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Feb 2021

With the vaccination program progressing at a snail’s pace and the spontaneous reaction of society to the increasing death toll, increasing the voluntary social distancing, GDP will almost surely shrink in the first quarter this year. The inevitable prolongation of some type of emergency relief a...

In QE we trust. Zelenskiy reports disagreements with the IMF
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Feb 2021

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy claimed some disagreements with the IMF, when speaking at Forum “Ukraine 30”. In particular, he mentioned the Fund has multiple comments to the draft law on the High Council of Justice he submitted to the parliament recently. Reload of the High Council of Justice is ...

KUWAIT: Government proposes large annual sovereign wealth withdrawals to part-finance deficits
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 22 Feb 2021 · 1 response

The government has proposed an amendment to the 1976 law on the Future Generations Fund (FGF) that would permit the withdrawal of up to KD5bn ($16.5bn) annually to finance deficits (Qabas-Arabic). During the last year, the government has been in a bind because it is not able to withdraw from the ...

Labor productivity surges in 2020
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Feb 2021

GDP numbers surprised on the upside in 2020, and labor productivity surged by 6.8%. Despite recent weak economic indicators, rapid vaccination and the opening of the economy will support strong household demand. Inflation surprised on the upside as prices of housing (rental) and durable goods mov...

Accelerating the Covid vaccinations has become critically urgent
HUNGARY · Report · 22 Feb 2021

The development of the Covid new infections curve has changed for the worse lately. Following the spectacular reversal of a second wave, the situation stopped improving in late January and the daily number of new infections has been increasing again ever since. The authorities have announced the ...

Nornickel will pay USD 2 billion fine and not appeal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Feb 2021

On February 18 the mining giant announced that it accepted the fine imposed for a diesel spill in 2020. The company will not contest the fine in court.The owner of the company is Vladimir Potanin. On February 15 Forbes estimated his wealth at USD 30 billion making him the richest Russian.

GDP surprises on the upside, labor productivity surges in 2020
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Feb 2021

GDP contracted by 2.4% in 2020 GDP per capita contracted by 4.1%, relatively modest in light of extended periods of closures. Israel enjoyed two drivers: Hi-tech service exports (software, etc.) expanded by 18% in 2020, and a strong net negative tourist account. Lack of flights abroad supported d...

Words vs. deeds
TURKEY · Report · 21 Feb 2021 · 1 response

At home, President Erdogan ordered gradual and locale-by-locale re-opening of the Turkish economy in March, which is an extremely risky gamble in the face of 7.5K new cases per day and still not enough vaccines at hand. He is counting on 105 million doses of some type of vaccine to become availab...

Moscow constructed more skyscraper housing than ever in 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Feb 2021

On February 16 a report by Capital Group showed that construction boomed in Moscow in 2020. Construction was allowed for all but the first few weeks of lockdown.860 000 square meters of housing was builty in skyscrapers. That is 17 200 ordinary apartments. A residential skyscraper is defined as 3...

CORRECTION: Telegram trying to raise capital
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Feb 2021

The messaging app seeks to raise USD 1 billion through the issuance of 5-year bonds to a restricted number of investors. Kommersant newspaper reported on February 18 that Telegram set the minimum investment value USD 50 million. The company might cut it to USD 10 million if needs be. The aim is t...

Ukraine short of energy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Feb 2021

Ukraine is struggling to produce sufficiently electricity. Coal stocks are very low. Nuclear power plants cannot work at full capacity owing to long overdue repairs.A severe winter resulted in power usage 6.5% higher than usual in February 2021. DTEK (an energy company) blamed market manipulation...

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