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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The increase in domestic issuance is expected to be absorbed without much difficulty
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 May 2020

We expect bond issuance to average 9bn per month in 2H20In May, tradeable domestic bond issuance will reach 10.5bn ILS, double the pace of the previous months. We think this sharp increase is also due to expectations of a large fiscal deficit this year as well as huge redemptions in May of 11.7bn...

Bolsonaro appoints Federal Police Director amid political tension
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 May 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro appointed Ronaldo Alexandre de Souza as the new director-general of the Federal Police (PF). Rolando was chosen five days after the Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Alexandre de Moraes, suspended the appointment of the head of the Brazilian Intelligence Agency...

Politics: The cost of concentrating presidential control
MEXICO · Report · 04 May 2020

The debate over President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s handling of Covid-19 remains a topic of intense discussion amid growing doubts as to the official version of the pandemic’s progression, the degree to which the health system is coping amid the crisis, and the legal maneuvers the government ...

Economics: No one at the wheel as the economy skids
MEXICO · Report · 04 May 2020

Economic news during April continued to confirm the accelerating weakening trend apparent since last year and also offered some very initial indications of how the Covid-19 epidemic will increasingly squeeze the economy. For starters, the March report from Antad showed the country’s retailers exp...

Order restored: Manufacturing PMI is now in line with the Eurozone and the CEE/Turkey
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 May 2020 · 1 response

The extreme historic low of 29.1 reported for the manufacturing PMI for March was way out of line with any of the Euro Area, Poland, Czechia and the Turkey at that time. The Euro Area PMI was still at 44.5 and the other countries reported similar values (Poland 42.4, Czechia 41.3, Turkey 48.1). T...

Tensions rise in the political crisis
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 May 2020

Former Minister Sérgio Moro testified to the Federal Police on Saturday, May 2. Possible leaks could shake the political world. The bill that provides aid to states and municipalities will begin to be analyzed in the Lower House. On Monday, May 4, representatives vote on the “war budget” constitu...

Costa Rica: The Finance Minister released new fiscal deficit estimates
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 04 May 2020

The April 30 press conference of Minister of Finance Rodrigo Chaves only confirmed what we anticipated in our March and April reports about the seriousness of the fiscal consequences from COVID-19, mounted on long-term fiscal fragility and a lack of willingness to adopt the required measures on t...

New number 2 in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 May 2020

On May 4 the Kazakh Senate elected a new chairman. Maulen Ashimbaev was elected. He was previously head of the presidential administration. The Chairman of the Senate becomes president if the sitting president dies, resigns or is removed from office. Ashimbaev was elected the same day that he was...

Russian national projects scaled back
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 May 2020 · 1 response

On May 3 Putin's spokesman announced that national projects will be reduced. This is due to coronavirus. The national projects were begun in 2018. These infrastructure works were due to cost USD 400 billion. They were falling behind schedule before coronavirus appeared. The projects will continue...

True improvement vs. lockdown noise?
TURKEY · Report · 04 May 2020

Consumer prices rose by 0.85%, m/m, somewhat higher than the market consensus, with the 12-month CPI inflation easing to 10.9% from 11.9% in March. Domestic-PPI inflation registered 1.3%, m/m, increase, leading to a decline in the 12-month rate to 6.7%, from 8.5% in the previous month. The wor...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 May 2020

The month of April 2020 will be remembered as one of the most unique ever experienced by the country. Circumstances were created assuring the concomitant aggravation of three major crises: the pandemic, the political crisis and the economic crisis. The number of deaths caused by the Covid-19 viru...

The growth in employment will be crucial for recovery
ISRAEL · Report · 04 May 2020

Highlights: Although official unemployment rose only slightly in March to 3.4%, this does not represent the actual state of the labor market. * Those on forced non-pay vacation are not considered unemployed. * If this segment is included, it is estimated that 817k were out of wor...

Russian drug prices soaring
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 May 2020

On April 29 Russian newspaper Vedomosti reported that prices for medicines are soaring. On certain routes transport costs are up sixfold due to coronavirus. This would make some medicines loss makers for manufacturers. Supply chains have been disrupted. Some Russian pharmaceutical manufacturers a...

The growth in employment will be crucial for recovery
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 May 2020

Highlights of our upcoming weekly review:Although official unemployment rose only slightly in March to 3.4%, this does not represent the actual state of the labour market.Those on forced non-pay vacation are not considered unemployed.If this segment is included, it is estimated that 817k were out...

Corona damage becoming visible
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2020

In as much as official figures may be misleading, Turkey is making good progress on eradicating COVID-19, while the government has switched to a cautious stance vis-à-vis re-opening the economy. Administration members now caution the public that Turkey will remain on emergency footing for some ...

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