GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The first month of the year 2021 was not fruitful for the Finance Ministry in terms of the borrowing on the local market. Since the beginning of the year, the government has managed to place OFZ worth only R61.1 bln, which is a very poor result given the annual plan of R3.7 trln. Demand from inte...

Central America and Caribbean Outlook 2021 - Post-pandemic progress - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Dominican Republic and Panama

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jan 2021

Our live webinar features Francisco de Paula Gutierrez, Felix Delgado, Magdalena Lizardo and Marco Fernandez as they discuss their countries’ fiscal, macro and political prospects for the coming year. This webinar was moderated by Esteban Tamayo, Citi Research Economist for Colombia, Peru and the...

Russian private equity firm attracts USD 260 million to digital fund

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

On January 21 Kommersant reported that Elbrus Capital's investment fund for the Russian digital sector is doing very well. It is the third fund launched by the investment house, which has tech as its niche. Elbrus specializes in former USSR countries. Elbrus' aim is to raise USD 600 million by th...

Russia’s economic performance has seemingly improved in 4Q20, albeit accelerated inflation suppressed real retail sales

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

According to Rosstat’s preliminary estimates, Russia’s retail sales contracted by 4.1% in 2020. Food retail was down by 2.6%, while non-food retail dropped by 5.2%. These numbers are generally in line with expectations. As inflation accelerated in 4Q20, retail sales decreased in this quarter more...

Russian private equity firm attracts USD 260 million to digital fund

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

On January 21 Kommersant reported that Elbrus Capital's investment fund for the Russian digital sector is doing very well. It is the third fund launched by the investment house which has tech as its niche. Elbrus specializes in former USSR countries. Elbrus' aim is to raise USD 600 million by the...

Recovery outlook: neither bad nor good

UKRAINE · Forecast · 28 Jan 2021

Ukraine survived 2020 rather smoothly, compared to the rest of the world. Economic growth dropped by 4.5% y/y, which is a very good result for Ukraine in the storm of global crisis. Incomes continued to grow. The current account balance reached an astonishing surplus of $6.9 billion, or 4.6% of ...

Inflation Report: Hawkish rhetoric continues

TURKEY · Report · 28 Jan 2021

The CBRT has released the first Inflation Report of the year, according to which the Bank, as broadly expected, kept the end-2021 and 2022 inflation forecasts unchanged at 9.4% (midpoint of 7.3%-11.5%) and at 7% (midpoint of 4.6%-9.4%), respectively. Inflation is expected to ease to the official ...

4Q20 GDP: improving but weak

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

As expected, the contraction in GDP declined from double digits in 2Q and 3Q to 8.3% yoy in 4Q following looser quarantine restrictions and increased supply of public transport. The 4Q level of activity was a 5.6% improvement over 3Q on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Nevertheless, the weakness of t...

Russia penalizing social media networks for not censoring protest memes

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021

On January 27 Moscow's communications regulator (Roskomnadzor) announced fines levied on seven social media networks that did not remove pro-Navalny videos. Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, TikTok, Vkontakte, Odnoklassniki and YouTube were all found to be in breach of a law that obliges them to remo...

As w-o-w inflation remains high the government considers some administrative measures

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2021

Rosstat reported Russia’s inflation during the seven days ending January 25 remained at 0.2%, i.e., it was on average the same as w-o-w inflation in December and earlier in January. The y-o-y inflation in January will likely be close to 5.5%. A closer look at the breakdown of inflation components...

Consumer sector metrics in China

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Jan 2021

As China moves into 2021, two key questions for the economy are: 1) Will consumer spending increase to match the gains in other sectors? 2) Will China be able to reduce the stimulus through state spending on fixed asset investment? The official data on retail sales for December 2020 and FY2020...

Monetary Policy and Its Limits

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2021

At its last meeting, the COPOM deleted the forward guidance – the commitment to keep the SELIC rate at 2% for an extended period – meaning that as soon as deemed necessary, the monetary authorities will proceed with monetary normalization. The current directors of the Central Bank have given stro...

Weathering the storm

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Jan 2021

In El Salvador, we continue to perceive calm political conditions, a month before legislative and municipal elections. Despite serious fiscal problems, now aggravated by the pandemic, the absence of discussion of hot topics related to fiscal adjustment amazes us. As we’ve said in previous reports...

Finance Minister Ignacio Briones resigned

CHILE · In Brief · 26 Jan 2021

As expected, Finance Minister Ignacio Briones resigned on Tuesday to launch a presidential run. Briones’ political skills and common touch made him a valued addition to the government in the aftermath of the 2019 protests. His popularity has made him a natural choice as a presidential candidate f...

No policy change out of today's Monetary Council meeting.

HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Jan 2021

The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council today has resulted in a no-policy-change decision. Moreover, there has been very little novelty in the Council's statement as well, as that mostly repeated, or referred to, the MNB's recent statements, actions and predictions. All t...