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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Government inaction as violence spirals
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2020

Intentional homicides continue to reach record highs in Mexico as major drug operations, primarily the Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) and Sinaloa cartels, step up war to control major trafficking routes into the United States. The former of these organizations has opened up another front as its ...

​SAUDI: Tripling the VAT is a bold move that will facilitate reforms in other states
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 May 2020 · 1 response

Saudi Arabia has announced new fiscal consolidation totalling $27bn (4% of GDP), including spending cuts, ending a key benefit for public sector employees and tripling the VAT to 15%. These will help significantly with fiscal consolidation, particularly in 2021, but at the cost of further contrac...

Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate and Fiscal and Political Risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 May 2020

The cut of 75 basis points at the last COPOM meeting took the SELIC rate to 3%, and the communiqué indicated that another cut of up to 75 basis points at most is in store at the next meeting. The disinflationary pressure caused by the magnitude of the current recession, which in light of the beha...

Moscow, Russia reopening factories
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 May 2020

On May 11 it was confirmed that factories in Moscow can resume work on May 12. Construction sites reopened on May 6. To reduce the risk of infection people must wear masks and gloves while commuting. Economic activity in Russia is one-third lower than it was in March before the lockdown began.

The decline of BoI bond purchases may have contributed to higher yields
ISRAEL · Report · 11 May 2020 · 1 response

The economy is gradually opening up as the number of new infections remains very low. Only one quarter of the fiscal stimulus scheme was executed through April; we expect a fiscal deficit of 9% GDP, below official forecasts. The BoI intervention in the government bond market has been minimal, and...

The decline of BoI bond purchases may have contributed to higher yields
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 May 2020

Highlights of our Weekly Macro Review to be released: Economic indicators point to a sharp contraction of activity, but the gradual opening up of the shutdown which commenced two weeks ago is expected to support a gradual recovery. The CBS Business Tendency Survey reflects sharp contraction in al...

Dark outlook
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 May 2020

An early countrywide lockdown has doubtless helped keep Covid-19 case counts low. And the health emergency has provided Maduro the opportunity to show a capacity to govern, control, and set the agenda. As in previous crises, which helped Maduro promote regime cohesiveness and deflect blame, this ...

Turkey, the Blade Runner
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2020

With our deepest apologies, we’ve decided to put off the publication of our quarterly/forecast report until next Sunday in order to monitor the developments of this week, see a few important data releases (e.g., March industrial production, April budget) and most importantly, sharpen our baseline...

Coronavirus tension continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2020

The dispute between the Planalto Palace and the Federal Supreme Court (STF) is ongoing. The Attorney General’s Office (AGU) asked today that STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes reconsider the decision that suspended the inauguration of Alexandre Ramagem as director-general of the Federal Police (PF)...

Coronavirus in Central Asia: an update
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2020

In this report, we review the status and impact of the coronavirus on the countries of Central Asia: * Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan ease their lockdowns. * Azebaijan prolongs its lockdown. * Turkmenistan faces economic meltdown, yet misses out on EU aid.

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain issues, Saudi on negative outlook, coronavirus slows further
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 May 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Moody’s put Saudi on negative outlook, expecting a 12% of GDP deficit and debt rising to 45%. * Bahrain issued $2bn, split into 4.5y...

CBR launches regular LT REPO facility
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 May 2020

Today CBR chairperson, Ms. Nabiullina, announced that the regulator will start providing funding for 1 month and 1 year to local commercial banks via regular REPO facility. Auctions will take place once a month. First auction providing one-month facility is due to be launched at the end of May, a...

Data on March and April signals deep Covid-19 impact, as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 May 2020

The headline rate of CPI-inflation fell very sharply in April. The figures were -0.6% mom, 2.4% yoy, the latter down from 3.9% yoy in March. Instinctively, one could think that the big drop must have been due to the current general economic weakness, but the situation is more complicated than tha...

China’s “bridges to nowhere”
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 May 2020

The success of China’s emergence from the virus/trade war recession will depend on the size, type and success of any stimulus measures. Whatever stimulus package gradually emerges will follow several years of government restriction on credit flows following the “hangover” from the 2009 fiscal sti...

A delicate, short-lived disconnect between politics and economics
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 May 2020

Countries that entered the COVID-19 crisis strong are likely to emerge stronger, and those that entered weak may leave in an even weaker state. The crucial issue will be actions during the crisis. Three issues common to all strategies are: 1) saving the health care system and preventing the pande...

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