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Georgian PM replaced and protests erupt
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2021

On February 18 Prime Minister Georgi Gakharia resigned. The president appointed Irakli Garibashvili. However, this has yet to be ratified by Parliament.On February 19 irate oppositionist crowds gathered in front of Parliament: 20 arrests followed. Protestors said the 2020 election was fixed.The l...

Downbeat near term, but vaccine rollout offers upside
PERU · Report · 19 Feb 2021

Less than two months before Election Day on April 11th, calling the results remains challenging. Although 16 political parties successfully registered their candidates on time for the presidential and congressional elections, the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE, the National Election Tribunal)...

​GULF WEEKLY: US open to EU-Iran mediation, Sharjah nears junk status, Kuwait suspends parliament
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Feb 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * The US welcomed an EU proposal to mediate with Iran. This comes days before Iran is planning to limit nuclear inspections and after an attack on a US base in Iraq by an Iran-linked militia. * Oil hit $65 and could ...

European Court of Human Rights demands Navalny's release
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2021

On February 18 the ECHR said that Alexey Navalny should be set free because he is in peril in custody. Russia has refused to comply with the court order. The Russian Constitution states that domestic law trumps international law. Russia is a member of the Council of Europe, a signatory of the Eur...

Russia acclaims Myanmar coup
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2021

On February 17 Moscow voiced its approval of the new military regime in Myanmar (Burma). China by contrast has registered its anxiety about the situation. There is unrest in Myanmar since Aung San Suu Kyi was deposed. Defense Minister Shoigu visited Myanmar days before the coup d'etat. He was rum...

​Economic activity continues to rebound in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Feb 2021

Rosstat reported that retail sales were down by a mere 0.1% in January, while in 4Q20 and 2020 as a whole they were down by 2.8% and 4.1% y-o-y. Food retail sales were down in January by 1.0% y-o-y (by 3.9% and 2.6% in 4Q20 and 2020 as a whole). Non-food retail was up by 0.9% in January y-o-y (an...

Provincial data
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Feb 2021

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Although Beijing will probably not announce a GDP growth target during the Two Sessions this March, nearly every province in China has already done so, with an implied national growth rate for the year of 6.8 percent. • A recent BIS research report s...

What’s behind the latest attack on Ant?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Feb 2021

The Wall Street Journal published an article blaming the cancellation of the Ant Group IPO on corrupt insider dealings in the allocation of shares. While the article is fascinating, it serves too neatly Beijing’s interest in clipping the wings of Jack Ma and Alibaba. The documents conveniently le...

​MPC: No change, as expected
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2021

At today’s rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee/CBRT left the policy rate unchanged at 17% (simple), as expected. Regarding the content of the statement, as far as we can see, two changes are worth highlighting from the previous one. One is the indirect or de facto acknowledgmen...

The new emergency relief and monetary normalization
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Feb 2021

​The first point we analyze in this report is the need for the new edition of the Emergency Relief program to be much less generous than in 2020, which had a price tag of 4% of GDP. In 2020 it expanded the retail sales and attenuated the GDP decline. But in face of the contagion acceleration and ...

​QATAR: Upgrade likely as LNG expansion moves forward and benefits from the energy transition
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Feb 2021 · 1 response

* Qatar should have the lowest yields and strongest ratings in the Gulf given its fiscal strength. * Sovereign bond supplies could become constrained, although new GRE issuance is likely. * Qatar invested in gas when it was unfashionable and reaped the rewards, but developed an independent s...

High-heat politics burn hopes for agreement
ECUADOR · Forecast · 17 Feb 2021

Those Ecuadorians who do not want a return by the Correistas viewed with hope the meeting held last Friday, February 12, between Guillermo Lasso and Yaku Perez, who have fought vote by vote for their right to contest the second round. A difference of fewer than 34,000 votes in favor of Lasso has ...

Russia sanctions 9 Ukrainian companies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Feb 2021

On February 13 Moscow announced a new round of sanctions on Ukraine. The companies affected are Craneship, Donmar, Transship and Maxima Metal. The first three are all involved in sea transportation. This takes the total number of Ukrainian companies sanctioned by Russia to 84.

China’s stimulus and the bond market
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Feb 2021

What is the state of China’s stimulus programs in 2021 and can it be sustained? If the consumer sector fails to pick up speed – as is currently the case, particularly in services – how will China generate growth? The bond market has been an important source of credit, with a 13 percent rise in ou...

Kazakhstan manufacturing Sputnik V
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2021

On February 16 Kazakhstan announced that it is manufacturing the Russian vaccine with Moscow's permission. The Karaganda Pharmaceutical Complex has been granted the certification to do so. Kazakhstan is the first country outside Russia to make the vaccine. It is thought that India, Brazil, South ...

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