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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Corona damage becoming visible
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2020

In as much as official figures may be misleading, Turkey is making good progress on eradicating COVID-19, while the government has switched to a cautious stance vis-à-vis re-opening the economy. Administration members now caution the public that Turkey will remain on emergency footing for some ...

Chair of Kazakhstan Senate suddenly fired
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 May 2020

On May 2 the President of Kazakhstan fired the Chair of the Senate. President Tokayev thanked Dariga Nazarbayeva for her work and offered no explanation for the unheralded announcement. Chair of the Senate is the successor to the president if he dies in office or is incapacitated. Dariga Nazarbay...

S&P has taken back the positive outlook from its BBB sovereign rating for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 May 2020

Well, it did not take a very long time. S&P announced the positive outlook on February 14 this year, signalling that it would soon consider an upgrade for the Hungarian sovereign's BBB rating. But then came Covid-19, and in an extraordinary statement released on April 28, the outlook was announce...

Disobedience probe: alarming ring of big reshuffle
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 May 2020

Yesterday we witnessed events, which might be the first signal of big shift in Ukrainian politics. Mayor of Cherkasy, a town in central Ukraine with near 280 thnd inhabitants, eased quarantine restrictions from May 1st ahead of any orders from Kyiv. President Zelenskiy in his regular video-addres...

Procter and Gamble gaining in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 May 2020

30-50% of Russian economic output has been closed down to coronavirus. Procter and Gamble (P&G) is allowed to continue as normal. It produces coronavirus necessaries. These include Fairy and Tide.P & G has posted some of its best ever results for Q1. Sales are up. People have stocked up. 60% of P...

GULF WEEKLY: Coronavirus slows, Saudi/Qatar fiscal data, Oman/Dubai GRE downgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 May 2020 · 1 response

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rose by about $5 over the week, and the new OPEC+ quotas came into effect today. * Coronavirus growth rates finally began to slo...

Severe Q2 economic contraction expected
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 01 May 2020

The number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise. As of last week, more than 6,500 people had been confirmed positive, and nearly 300 had died. The daily number of new infections has declined, which could mean social distancing is working. But it’s early to draw conclusions. The number of daily tes...

China’s “special” stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 May 2020

China relies less on monetary stimulus through the banks and more on fiscal expansion through targeted investments. Even when it supplies credit to the banks through a monetary expansion, as it is doing currently through various programs, these come with fiscal restrictions – orders from the regu...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series featuring Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar: The depth of recession and the ramp of recovery​
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 May 2020

Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discuss Colombia’s macro and fiscal outlook in response to the coronavirus crisis.​

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series featuring Lucas de Aragao: The consequences of Sergio Moro's resignation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 May 2020

In this call, Lucas de Aragao discussed the political environment in the aftermath of Sergio Moro's resignation, including President Bolsonaro's positioning and support, and the prospects for Brazil's reform agenda.

Russia's vast size shows difficulties containting COVID-19 infections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 May 2020

On April 30 Russia's prime minister announced he has coronavirus. Mikhail Mishustin's duties are temporarily being carried out by deputy prime minister Andrei Belousov. Putin has never before appointed someone to do another's duty due to the incumbent's illness.Over 114 000 people have been diagn...

In a nod to the bases, Bolsonaro polarizes regarding the Supreme Court
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2020

Alongside the positive signs made yesterday towards the Federal Supreme Court (STF) with the indications of André Mendonça for the Ministry of Justice and Public Security and José Levi for the Advocacy General of the Union (AGU) – names with good relations in the STF – President Jair Bolsonaro st...

Can South Africa weather the COVID-19 storm?
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 30 Apr 2020

Summary and Assumptions • Emerging Markets: As the COVID19-induced global economic chaos intensifies, there has been an even greater shift of capital from emerging markets to countries considered safer as investors are becoming more risk averse. This, together with the steep contraction in eco...

Inflation Report: Another day in the dialogue of the deaf
TURKEY · Report · 30 Apr 2020

The CBRT has released the year's second Inflation Report today, according to which the Bank cut its year-end inflation forecast from 8.2% to 7.4%, while keeping the 2021 forecast unchanged at 5.4%. The revision is due to downward pressure from lower commodity prices and weak domestic demand condi...

Russia encourages Iran to stand firm against the USA
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2020

On April 29 Moscow said that Iran should not cave in to American provocations. Russia asked Tehran to be cautious and restrained. The United States was slammed for ''aggressive rhetoric''. Iran and the US have argued over the incident on April 15 in which 11 Iranian patrol boats came close to a U...

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