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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Q1 fiscal balance number is out, and it is not very nice
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Apr 2020

The central government's cash deficit reached HUF 832bn or 7.2% of GDP in Q1, sharply up from HUF 142bn or 1.3% of GDP one year earlier. At this point, only partial information is available, the detailed figures are due in two weeks' time.Note: Data in HUF bn; Sources: Finance Ministry, KSH, own ...

​Russia’s pandemic update: CBR hints rate may be cut next week
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2020

Today, the CBR Chairperson Mrs. Nabiulina made several statements during her press-conference, which seem to be supportive for the ruble bond market. In particular, she mentioned that the base case scenario for the next Board of Directors meeting would be a potential key rate cut, and the size of...

Q1 GDP growth was down nearly 10% from last quarter
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Apr 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The terrible first quarter numbers that China posted were not unexpected. What did interest me was to try to understand the extent of the increase in household savings available for what Chinese social media has taken to calling “revenge” consumption....

External committee of the fiscal rule activates countercyclical spending clause
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 17 Apr 2020 · 1 response

The external committee of the fiscal rule met on April 16th to review the fiscal situation in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. There was great expectation around the outcome of this meeting, as the government has been forced to make decisions with considerable fiscal implications on the fly,...

Hope for an IMF lifesaver amid the COVID-19 storm
UKRAINE · Report · 17 Apr 2020

​The headlines have turned apocalyptic in Ukraine: a global economic crash, the forests of Chornobyl burning, the nation in COVID-19 lockdown, and more stinky scandals in President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s inner circle. Altogether very depressing. By mid-March, Ukraine’s government had imposed st...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: Brazil - Macro outlook at the time of the Corona
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Apr 2020

Live from Sao Paulo, Affonso Pastore provided an outlook on the country’s economic growth drivers, fiscal situation and debt-to-GDP trajectory amid the coronavirus pandemic.​

Gansu Bank bailout – the beginning of a trend?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Apr 2020

The PBOC is reportedly going to conduct a state takeover of the provincial Gansu Bank. The plan involves a massive capital injection through the sale of new equity to existing shareholders, including the provincial government, according to reporting by Caixin Magazine. We attempt to resolve two q...

​Planning secretary resigns
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Apr 2020

In a wholly unexpected development, Socio-economic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia resigned today from his post, citing personal reasons and “differences in development philosophy with a few of my fellow Cabinet members.” It is not clear at this time what these “differences” are and with whom a...

Moscow digital passes scheme struggles in confusion
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2020

On March 15 Moscow introduced a system of digital passes to allow 3.2 million of Moscow's 13 million people to leave their residences - if taking transport (pedestrians do not require passes). The government was not clear about the regulations and the police also seemed to be in the dark. There w...

​Argentina to present tomorrow a unilateral debt restructuring proposal for its external debt
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 16 Apr 2020

Today (Thursday), President Alberto Fernández, invited, once more, all the governors to a meeting. In this opportunity, Finance Minister Martín Guzman (MG) gave a report on the debt restructuring process and the main guidelines of the actual swap proposal that would be officially presented tomorr...

​GCC: The IMF's gloomy forecasts may still be too optimistic
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Apr 2020

* Markets were shocked by the IMF’s “Great Lockdown” forecasts this week, but its GCC outlook looks too optimistic in certain regards, although it is a valuable benchmark. * The GCC’s non-oil contraction in 2020 (-4.3%) is in line with the global COVID shock, although the IMF warns of “extreme u...

Drug prices in Russia up 15%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Apr 2020

On April 16 Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that drug prices in Russia have risen by up to 15% due to the fall of the RUB. Importers have to pay more for imported ingredients and this has been passed on to consumers. People rushed to pharmacies in March to stock up on pharmaceuticals in ant...

Mandetta’s situation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Apr 2020

Since this morning, rumors that President Jair Bolsonaro will fire the Minister of Health, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, have increased in intensity. To add to this, the Secretary of Health in the Ministry, Wanderson de Oliveira, considered the formulator of the strategy against the coronavirus, resign...

​Russia: Pandemic update
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Apr 2020 · 2 responses

Russia’s inflation w-o-w showed no signs of an acceleration in the past seven-day period ending on April 13, and reached 0.2% w-o-w (versus 0.3% a week earlier). It is likely that in April inflation may be around 1% and similar level of inflation can be expected in May. If so, then in May the y-o...

​Health Minister promises quick end to corona battle
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Apr 2020

In his Tuesday evening briefing, Health Minister Mr. Fahrettin Koca took pride in Turkey’s super-efficient health system which keeps the mortality and intubation ratios from COVID-19 low and has a nation-wide contact tracing network which leaves no stone unturned. “Therefore”, he said “in one to ...

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