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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The federal budget and the current account balances strengthen in May
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that in 5m21, the federal government spent 41.9% of the annual plan (R21.5 trln). It means that the federal budget expenditures were allocated evenly so far – spending reached R9.0 trln. Federal budget revenues exceeded R9.3 trln (49.7% of the official plan) over the...

STF decides that the Governor of Amazonas does not have to testify in the CPI today, Special Committee on Administrative Reform was installed yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2021

The rapporteur for the Administrative Reform proposal is against increasing the number of vacation days for judges. The report on the privatization of Eletrobras should be submitted next Tuesday. There are three possible edits to the text. If the text is edited, it must go to the House for analy...

Election campaign reached fiscal policies yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2021

Yesterday, PM Orbán announced that the government is proposing to return one-year's income tax to taxpayers raising children in early 2022, provided that the economy proves to be going well this year. Later in the day, Márton Nagy, formerly MNB vice governor and currently an advisor to the prime ...

RUB rises to highest since August 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2021

It seems like the Russian Central Bank will raise interest rates out of concern over rapidly rising inflation. Interest rates might rise to 5.5% on June 11. Inflation was 6% in May 2021. RUB was 72 to the USD on June 9. RUB is 87 to the EUR.It looks like the Russian economy has almost recovered f...

Consumer inflation speeds up to 9.5% y/y in May
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Jun 2021

In May inflation sped up to +1.3% m/m or +9.5% y/y from +0.7% m/m or +8.4% y/y in April. Stronger food prices (+1.7% m/m from +1.2% m/m in April) as well as jump in utilities’ tariffs (+3.9% m/m from +0.4% m/m in April) are the main drivers of consumer inflation with foods adding 0.74 ppt (out of...

Reduction of public debt service in USD1,310 m for the period 2022-2027
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Jun 2021

The Ministry of Finance announced the reduction of the public debt service by DOP74,908 m (USD1,310 m) for the period 2022-2027, through a liability management operation in the local market. The operation consisted of swapping bonds with a face value of DOP92,427 m (USD1,617.44 m) and interest ra...

Emergency aid program should be extended for another two to three months and Special Committee on Administrative Reform should be installed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2021

The government is looking into other social programs ahead of the upcoming presidential elections. Senator Rogério’s report on the privatization of Eletrobras should be submitted today. Senator Bezerra was indicted by the Federal Police for allegedly receiving R$ 10 million when he a minister dur...

Tajikistan and Pakistan ink deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2021

On June 2 they signed a memorandum of understanding. The Prime Minister of Tajikistan visited Pakistan for the first ever time. Tajikistan is going to buy Pakistani weapons. Which ones have not been specified. Both countries border Afghanistan. Both are concerned about how the situation in that c...

May CPI-inflation remained at peak level, MNB hardened tightening talk a bit further
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2021

The headline rate of CPI-inflation for May was reported at 0.5% mom, 5.1% yoy this morning. The yoy rate was unchanged from April, ending up lower than the average analyst expectation of 5.2-5.4%.Fuel prices rose further by 1.7% mom, but their yoy increase moderated to 36.2%, from April's peak 39...

May: a month between the good news of recovery, and the bad news of a third COVID-19 wave
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 08 Jun 2021

Amid the good news of the economy expanding by 11.5% during January-April 2021, from the same period in 2020, the government was forced to announce the imposition of greater restrictions on mobility for the first week of June, and the intensification of vaccination efforts. The COVID-19 situat...

World Bank warns Eastern Europe and Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2021

On June 8 the World Bank said that these regions face major risks well into 2022. These regions will grow by 3.9% in 2021. That seems excellent but in many cases it will not make up for the losses since March 2020. Russia will grow 3.2% in 2021. Rising world demand and rising prices for industria...

South Africa’s economy starts 2021 on a positive note, but the looming third wave of Covid-19 infections present a downside risk to growth
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Jun 2021

Real annualized quarterly GDP went up by 4.6% in the first quarter of 2021. This was following annualized expansions of 67.3% q/q and 4.6% q/q during the third and fourth quarter of 2020, respectively. Today’s GDP print confirms that South Africa’s economy is indeed recovering from its record slu...

Russian Macro: Revising Forecasts Uр
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 08 Jun 2021

Amid the ongoing global recovery, continuously loose monetary policies in the developed countries, and fiscal stimuli, oil and other commodity prices are likely to secure Russia’s strong current account surplus this year and next despite rapidly growing imports. The federal budget is likely to be...

The 140th attention-grabbing ploy, amid a strong economy
UKRAINE · Report · 08 Jun 2021

We’re all doomed to watch President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s latest TV project, called “The National Security Council.” Every Friday, journalists and observers are obliged to set aside time to find out what the producers in the Office of the President have generated for the nation’s viewers this tim...

Data on industry, hotels and inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2021

Industrial output rose 59.3% yoy but fell 3.2% mom in April, both on sda basis. The first one was spectacular, but there was a massive base effect, because of a Covid lockdown in force last April, of course. The second one was quite poor, but there was a Covid lockdown in force this April, too. T...

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