GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In our first politics commentary of the year, we refrain from making bold predictions, limiting ourselves largely to identifying salient developments and emerging trends since our last report(s). The natural gas pipeline TANAP delivering gas to Europe and a free trade deal with the U.K. headli...

Russian pipeline opens in Serbia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2021 · 1 response

On January 1 the President of Serbia opened the Balkan Stream gas pipeline in his country. A 403 km section of the pipeline passes through Serbia. Russian has and construction companies have been instrumental in the pipeline's completion. Balkan Stream is part of Turkstream. Balkan Stream provide...

Bad economic and epidemiological news at the end of the year: the slippery road ahead

PANAMA · Report · 24 Dec 2020

Panama is the worst performing economy in Latin America, except perhaps for Venezuela. The first semester drop in GDP (-18.9%) was larger than the second worst, Peru (-17.3%), and twice the regional average of -8.4%. The third quarter followed the same pattern: -23.6% reduction in activity, where...

The president’s lack of leadership, and the VP’s authoritarian and leftist stance, feeds economic pessimism

ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Key health and economic indicators published after we posted our last Quarterly forecast show some improvement. The number of COVID-19 infections fell in November, and the first two weeks of December. GDP and employment preliminary estimates by INDEC for Q3 show a stronger-than-expected recovery....

Regime in control but lacking legitimacy in 2021

VENEZUELA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Maduro will start 2021 in a relatively strong position. When the new National Assembly is inaugurated on 5 January 2021, his regime will control all branches of government. He has survived tough U.S. sanctions, weakened the opposition, and kept the military on his side. But his regime, which mobi...

Introspection at the end of 2020

COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Balance of payments data show that the current account deficit continued to shrink, from a 3.6% of GDP deficit at the start of 2020, to 3% in Q2, then 2.7% in Q3. While this reduces the economy’s exposure to financing gaps, the reduction deserves a closer look. The improvement in remittances and ...

Economics: Risk sources expand as the year ends

MEXICO · Report · 21 Dec 2020 · 1 response

In this, our last issue for a year in which Mexico’s economy will experience its greatest contraction in 90 years, we take a quick look at the direction of the most recent economic indicators, assess sources of heightened risk moving forward, and offer our outlook for the coming year. There have...

Inflation remains low, rental prices moderate

ISRAEL · Report · 21 Dec 2020

Inflation is expected to reach 0.4% in the NTM on higher commodity and housing prices, while the shekel continues to appreciate. The current account surplus improved sharply in Q320 on strong export growth. Residential starts and completions remain below demand, supportive of higher prices in 202...

Russia send soldiers to Central African Republic

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2020

On December 21 Russia dispatched troops to the Central African Republic (CAR). The reason is ostensibly to forestall a putsch planned for the upcoming weekend. Rwandan troops joined the Russian mission.The CAR accused the erstwhile president Francois Bozize of planning a forcible seizure of power...

Saudi shuts borders and Dubai stocks crash over new Covid strain

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 21 Dec 2020

Concerns are growing about a mutation of coronavirus which emerged in September and has become the predominant strain in parts of the UK during December. Preliminary results suggest it may be up to 70% more transmissible, although this is not confirmed. The UK government, which announced more str...

Inflation remains low, rental prices moderate

ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Dec 2020

Highlights of weekly macro review:November’s CPI (-0.2% m/m) was in line with expectations Headline inflation (-0.6% y/y) and core inflation (-0.2% y/y) reflect a low inflationary environment, mostly due to a steady shekel appreciation.Rental (equivalent) prices moderated to 1.1% y/y from 1.7% la...

US closing last consulates in Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Dec 2020

On November 19 the US announced that it will close its consulates in Vladivostok and Yekaterinburg. The only US diplomatic mission left in Russia shall be the embassy. The US said the decision was taken for the sake of security.The decision emphasizes how Russo-US relations are at their lowest eb...

US accuses Russia of gigantic cyberattack

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2020

On December 19 the United States said that Russia had carried out a cyberattack on several government agencies.On December 17 Microsoft said 40 major customers were attacked with malware. This enabled the attackers to gain access to systems. Electric power grids were among the systems exposed. 80...

The IMF starts on-line mission to Ukraine

UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Dec 2020

The IMF mission will start first review under current Stand-By Arrangement on Dec 21st, according to Interfax News agency, citing words of the IMF representative in Ukraine Gösta Ljungman. The meetings will be online. They will start next week and will resume in January 2021. Finally, Ukrainian a...

Russian National Guard to assist Belarus

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2020

On December 19 an agreement was signed empowering the Russian National Guard to operate in Belarus. The stated objective is to combat ''terrorism''.In August the two governments contemplated the deployment of the Russian Police to Belarus. Since then the situation seemed to become more placid. Ho...