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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Is the Central Bank strong enough for Arauz?
ECUADOR · Report · 16 Mar 2021

The legal actions conducted by Yaku Perez against the electoral results and the National Electoral Council already have a ruling from the Electoral Court, but are subject to appeal from Perez. Thus, the ruling has not been executed yet. In the unlikely event that Perez were to win the appeal, it ...

Industrial output is down in February y-o-y, but up m-o-m seasonally and calendar adjusted
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2021

As the Russian oil industry has still to comply with the OPEC+ deal, oil extraction remained suppressed in January and February (down by around 12% y-o-y in 2M21), while gas extraction was up by over 5% over the same period. As a result, the mining sector (including coal and metal ores) as a whol...

Election race is polarized, while recovery temporarily pauses
PERU · Report · 16 Mar 2021 · 2 responses

The presidential race has grown polarized, according to the most recent opinion polls. Although this is a surprise, in our January Forecast we suggested that this could happen during the last leg of the campaign. We described three possible scenarios: first, a strong winner emerging (with George...

Economics: Credit to the private sector starts its slide
MEXICO · Report · 16 Mar 2021

All components of finance to the private sector have begun to show signs of weakening, just as had been expected. While commercial banking solvency indexes were still suggesting late last fall that the system is relatively well capitalized on average, some banks were in barely satisfactory ranges...

​Another CPI surprises on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Mar 2021

Inflation in February reached 0.3% m/m and zero y/y (from -0.4% y/y last month), about 0.2% about market expectations (and our). Core inflation (inflation excluding energy and fresh produce) pushed higher, reaching 0.3% y/y from zero last month. The main inflation surprises came from prices of ho...

Politics: Women’s condition, demands and movement
MEXICO · Report · 15 Mar 2021

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador had at least a full year in which to rethink his mistake of having come out against the largest wave of women’s rights protests in the nation’s history. Following months of demonstrations sparked by especially gruesome murders of young women and girls and a l...

A Higher Interest Rate and Economic Stagnation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 15 Mar 2021

During the second wave of COVID contagion, which is working to contract the economy through spontaneous social distancing, the risk premiums have been rising (steepening slope of the yield curve and weakening of the exchange rate), and the Central Bank is poised to raise the interest rate. Added ...

The progress of reforms and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Mar 2021

This Monday, the Emergency Amendment will be promulgated. The government will then draft the Provisional Measure for stimulus payments. Arthur Lira (PP-AL) said that he expects the report on Tax Reform to be presented this week. On Wednesday, Congress will analyze presidential vetoes. In the econ...

Fundamentals will continue to support appreciation
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Mar 2021

* Both consumer confidence and consumption have rebounded sharply since mid-February on rapid vaccination and the opening-up of the economy. * The combination of the CA surplus and net FDI reached a record level of 10% GDP in 2020; macro fundamentals remain shekel positive. * Residential...

Ukraine to nationalize Motor Sich
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Mar 2021

On March 11 it was announced that Kyiv wants to buy the aerospace company. At the moment Chinese companies own most of the shares. Ukraine considers the company vital to national defense. The chief of the Security and Defense Council said that Motor Sich needs to be taken back by Ukraine. Shareho...

Fundamentals will continue to support appreciation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Mar 2021

Strong fundamentals support shekel appreciation In 2020, the CA surplus reached 5% GDP, and net FDI added an additional 4.9%. This is due to Israel’s vibrant hi-tech sector, boosting exports and investments. Some factors will reverse in 21: commodity prices are up (energy esp.), travel abroad wil...

Between Scylla and Charybdis
TURKEY · Report · 14 Mar 2021

Turkey is now advancing into the Third Wave of COVID-19 epidemic, with daily cases soaring above 15K/day. As President Erdogan resists the urgency to reverse “controlled normalization”, the outbreak is very likely to get out of control. We have already covered the destabilizing impact of the epid...

Russian and China plan joint moon station
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2021

On March 10 Beijing and Moscow announced that they will create a lunar space station together. Russia is exceptionally proud of the Soviet-era space prowess. However, Russian space exploration has fallen behind in recent decades. Putin also sees cooperation with China is vital to containing the W...

Russian weapons sales booming
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2021

On March 12 Moscow announced that its arms exports are selling well. The Federal Service for Military Technical Cooperation said that in 2020 the country sold USD 50-55 billion of arms.Sales in 2020 were 15% down YoY. This sector was impacted less by the pandemic than any other.

​Covid watch (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Mar 2021

The uptrend in new covid19 cases continued this week with the case count exceeding 4,500 on Friday. New cases rose 46% week-on-week based on 7-day averages with Metro Manila seeing much higher case growth. The overall positivity rate is now over 10% and the reproduction number estimated at 1.2 fr...

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