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Guedes shows optimism and seeks to soften criticism of Renda Cidadã financing
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2020

Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes spoke about the Renda Cidadã program for the first time since it was announced that it would be financed by resources used for court order payments. According to Guedes, “This will not happen, as this is not a healthy, clean, permanent and predictable source o...

The recession continues, but the September opening of the economy may help in 4Q; the MEF goes to the market successfully
PANAMA · Report · 30 Sep 2020

The figures through July show double-digit decreases in real activity in all sectors with the exception of the Canal and seaports. Central Government revenues (taxes and non-taxes) are following the same pattern. The MEF issued debt for US$ 2.575 million: (1) a re-tap of the 2060 bond for US$ 1 b...

Covid-19 weekly update – week ending September 28, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Sep 2020

Conditions generally remain positive although, following last week, there is a very mild softening on the retail side in theater attendance, auto sales, and property sales. It may be that economic activity has plateaued at levels 10-15% lower than in 2019 and will remain there until 2021.

UK sanctions Lukashenka
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2020

On September 29 London announced that sanctions have been introduced on Lukashenka, his son Victor and six high ranking officials. The UK is following Canada's suit. The sanctions means an asset freeze and a travel ban. The sanctions are due to election rigging and human rights abuses.President M...

COVID’S variable impacts
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Sep 2020 · 1 response

The COVID-19-driven global crisis is leading to the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression. The depth of the consequences, however, isn’t the same everywhere. It depends both upon a country’s economic health at the starting point, and the stringency of public health measures to cop...

Armenia-Azerbaijan fighting intensifies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2020 · 1 response

Fighting since September 27 has only spiraled up. Both countries have made outlandish claims about killing hundreds of enemy troops. Only 65 deaths are confirmed and some of these are civilians. Armenia broadcast images of what it said were destroyed Azerbaijani tanks and drones. This is the bloo...

KUWAIT: Emir has died - a loss for the region but likely credit positive for Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 29 Sep 2020

State media just announced the death of the emir (KUNA). He was being treated in the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota following bladder surgery in July. Despite frequent claims by state figures that he was "stable" or "improving", we had been consistently skeptical given the lack of disclosure about his ...

NEP: First impressions
TURKEY · Report · 29 Sep 2020

The Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak announced the New Economic Program for 2021-23 today. Please note that the program document and the presentation (here and here, available in Turkish only) had just been posted up on the web, as we were wrapping up this note, which we’ve decided to...

Russia tests coronavirus vaccine on 5 000 volunteers
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2020

On September 28 Moscow announced that it was testing Sputnik V on 5 000 people including those who have an elevated risk of infection. This is the last stage of the trials.The Gamaleya Research Center said that the trials will eventually involve 40 000 volunteers. It is admitted that there are si...

​The President’s speech
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Sep 2020

Last week, critics of President Rodrigo Duterte finally found something to thank him for. In his first address to the United Nations (UN) General Assembly since assuming the presidency four years ago, the President asserted the Philippine’s territorial sovereignty over disputed areas in the West ...

​Can Azerbaijan-Armenia clashes drag Turkey in?
TURKEY · In Brief · 29 Sep 2020

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over occupied Nagorno-Karabagh district (NK, map below) is one of those frozen conflicts like Kashmir, Indo-China border dispute and Cyprus.While experts in Turkish press craft horror stories of Turkish military facing Russian troops in Armenia, I see n...

OMAN: Reflections ahead of a potential issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Sep 2020 · 1 response

* Oman may issue at least $3bn in bonds imminently. * This is coming sooner than expected, and ahead of reforms or external support, because of concerns about a renewed downturn in the yield environment. * The VAT law should be issued soon, but implementation could be delayed until 2022. * The...

Lack of agreement postpones sending the second phase of the Tax Reform proposal; the creation of a new social program is announced
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2020

The government leader in the Lower House, Ricardo Barros (PP-PR), announced today that there is still no consensus on the second phase of the Tax Reform proposal. During the announcement, the government leader was accompanied by President Jair Bolsonaro, ministers, and party leaders. At the same...

Economics: Pemex and the 2021 Economy
MEXICO · Report · 28 Sep 2020 · 1 response

The Pemex that for many decades contributed massively to government coffers and was one of the country’s major sources of foreign currency inflows is no longer. With its 2021 budget package the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has admitted as much. Despite the Federal Government’s i...

A digital tax is still uncertain and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2020

The government may present a new proposal for the digital tax to allies, with the goal of making fiscal room for the payroll tax issue and the creation of a social program to replace the emergency aid payments. The Congressional session to analyze vetoes and the presentation of Deputy Aguinaldo R...

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