Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - TURKEY: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Essential CIS Politics: December 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2019

• Relations between the US and Russia are wobbly, with both good and bad signs. • The Ukrainian Conflict continues to calm down but long-term peace is uncertain. • Ukraine is making progress on economic reform, and the PrivatBank issue is now resolved. • Russia has difficult relations with Ger...

Nord Stream 2 sanctions: Ukraine might benefit from extra delay in pipeline construction
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Dec 2019 · 3 responses

On December 17 the US Senate approved the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020, which presumes sanctions for subcontractors building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Russia is trying to build several bypass routes to European countries around Ukraine. Init...

Ukrainians turn away from Russia media
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2019

A report published on December 15 showed that since 2014 Ukraine has been restricting the activities of the Russian media in Ukraine. Over 70 Russian TV channels have been banned. Since 2017 several Russian social networks have been stopped in Ukraine. Russian newspapers hardly sell any copies in...

The MNB loosened policy slightly further today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Dec 2019 · 1 response

Today's monthly rate-setting Monetary Council did not do a lot really, except for stating that they see inflation risk symmetrical now, instead of downwardly biased as so far, and also apart from raising the maximum exposure in their corporate bond purchasing program from HUF 300bn to HUF 450bn f...

The new government’s priorities are to raise domestic demand and real wages; lowering inflation isn’t an immediate concern
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 17 Dec 2019

Since ex-president Mauricio Macri lost his party’s presidential primary in August, inflation has accelerated, recession has deepened, fears of debt default have obscured the financial scenario and the IMF program has been put on hold. GDP has contracted 2.5% in 2019, and real wages have fallen 10...

Chile’s awakening
CHILE · Report · 17 Dec 2019 · 1 response

The economic effects of the protests that began on October 18th have been devastating. The social situation in Chile makes any projection highly uncertain. The Imacec in October was as unfavorable as it was surprising. Considering that the demonstrations affected only 12 days of the month, ou...

Russian tech company proactive in asserting rights
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2019

Rambler, a Russian internet company, is standing up against US rivals. On December 12 police searched the offices of Nginx which is a major web server. Rambler said that Nginx was guilty of stealing intellectual property. Igor Syosev co-founded Nginx but used to work for Rambler. Rambler alleges ...

Two 2020 pivot points
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Dec 2019

As 2019 comes to a draw, short-term regime changes look distant. The opposition is in disarray; Maduro has the upper hand. We see three political scenarios for 2020–2021. They pivot on assumptions as to how two key events will play out next year: the appointment of a new National Electoral Co...

Manila’s water problems (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Dec 2019

The fortunes of Metro Manila’s water concessionaires have taken a turn for the worse since they drew the President’s ire two weeks ago. First, in an attempt to defuse his anger, the water firms announced that they are waiving the combined P10.8 billion (about $212 million) awarded to them by the ...

Politics: AMLO's approval sees real slippage
MEXICO · Report · 16 Dec 2019

Since he rode a wave of deep popular discontent with politics as usual, conspicuous corruption, deepening social inequality and a sluggish economy to victory in 2018, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has enjoyed a level of popularity unprecedented in recent history. That support has remained...

Economics: Tourism adds to its economic impact
MEXICO · Report · 16 Dec 2019

At a time when Mexico can do with additional sources of foreign currency inflows, the latest tourism data offers some encouraging news, although it is hard to get that impression at first glance. During the first ten months of 2019 the number of international visitors slipped 1.5% below levels o...

The rise of Rodrigo Maia and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2019

The week begins with the threat of a truckers’ strike. This is the final week of legislative activity for the year: after the vote on the 2020 Budget, scheduled for Tuesday, Congress enters its end-of-year recess, with activity resuming on February 2. The Lower House will try to conclude the vote...

Despite the low CPI print, we do not expect a rate cut
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Dec 2019

Although inflation in November surprised on the downside, reaching -0.4% m/m and 0.3% y/y, a rate cut is far from certain. The CA surplus is likely to surpass 4% GDP this year and improve further in 2020. Israeli savings institutions sold FX of 1.2bn USD (net) in October and 5bn YTD, supporting s...

China’s schizophrenic stimulus policy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Dec 2019

Recent negative economic data is forcing Beijing to devise creative responses. The responses show a political compromise between the “spenders” (the National Development and Reform Commission, the local provincial governments, and the State Council) against the “savers,” which would include the P...

Despite low CPI print, a rate cut is far from certain
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Dec 2019

November's CPI surprises on the low side Inflation in November reached -0.4% m/m (0.3% y/y), lower than our forecast of -0.3% m/m and market expectations of -0.2% to -0.3%. Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) remained stable at 0.5% y/y similar to last month, but clearly t...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.