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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​GULF WEEKLY: Qatar affirmed, Kuwait downgraded, Oman may issue, Libya partly restarts
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Sep 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Libya reopened some oil fields and export terminals, but less than a third of its capacity. * The US asserted UN sanctions had snapped back on Iran, while the UN Sec Gen s...

Mexico webinar featuring Mauricio Gonzalez and Guillermo Valdes – Budget 2021 and the macro and political outlook for Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2020

Mauricio Gonzalez and Guillermo Valdes discuss the economic prospects for Mexico in light of the 2021 Budget, as well as the public’s appraisal of the recent performance of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s government.

Moscow reintroduces coronavirus restrictions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2020

On September 25 Moscow City asked people to work from home where possible from September 28. People over 65 are asked to stay inside as much as possible. The city is responding to 1,000 + cases of coronavirus being confirmed on September 24. This is the worst since June. The number of people admi...

Russia's coronavirus vaccine licensed in 23 countries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2020

On September 24 Russia's sovereign wealth fund said that Avifair will be on the market in 23 countries. It is already sold in 6, and a further 17 countries have licensed it. Avifavir is made by ChemRar. It is on sale in Ukraine, Turkmenistan, Bolivia, Kazakhstan and other countries. It is not ava...

Sberbank announces new services
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2020

On September 24 the Russian state-owned bank announced that there will be new services such as those Apple and Amazon offer. The corporate brand will no longer use the word "bank". It is now "Sber". Sber is trying to become part of tech.The Chief Executive German Gref made the announcement. There...

Encouraging, but still playing catch-up
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2020

A step in the right direction, but still playing catch up with reality. This, in a nutshell, sums up our reaction to today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to raise the policy rate (weekly repo) by 200 bps, from 8.25% to 10.25% (simple), which means commensurate increases in both O/N a...

The MNB has just raised the sterilisation rate to 0.75%, to preempt increasing inflationary pressures
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2020

The MNB has called its usual 1-week deposit tender with a fix 0.75% interest rate today, deviating from the unchanged 0.6% base rate and from its practice used so far, according to which the 1-week rate, which is the effective sterilisation rate, was always the same as the base rate. Later, the M...

Recovery reaches pre-pandemic level
CHINA · Report · 24 Sep 2020

Industrial output was up 5.6% y/y, up 0.8 pps from July, reaching the average growth rate of 2019. We expect growth might slightly exceed the pre-pandemic level for the rest of the year. Investment fell -0.3% y/y January-August, up 1.3 pps from previous months. The driving force is switching from...

​Is the EU sanctions threat over?
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Sep 2020

EU’s extraordinary leaders’ summit scheduled for this weekend was postponed for a week on account of Council President Charles Michel being in COVID-19 quarantine, which gives Turkey, EU and the anti-Turkey hardliners to work out a compromise in the interim. Despite press reports to the contrary,...

Government bets on exemption and reforms
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2020

After a meeting with President Jair Bolsonaro and members of the government’s political and economic wings, the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, said that the country must extend companies’ payroll tax exemption. And, for that reason, it will need to look for “alternative taxes”. Paulo G...

US sanctions on "Putin's chef"
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2020

On September 23 the US Treasury imposed sanctions on more people and organizations close to Putin. The ostensible reason is for meddling in US elections. Secretary Mnuchin accused Prigozhin of being behind nefarious anti-US activity across the globe. The US already had sanctions against Yevgeny P...

Lukashenka inaugurated
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2020

Belarus inaugurated Lukashenka for his 6th consecutive term. The ceremony was not announced in advance. Usually the event is trailed and broadcast live on TV.The public was taken by surprise. Small spontaneous protests took place.

Russia and the West: Recent developments seal the split; economy to adjust
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Sep 2020

The Russian ruble remained under pressure for some time, aggravated recently by fears of the COVID-19 pandemic's regaining momentum (both in Russia and Western Europe) and potential new sanctions against Russia. It looks as though sanctions are mounting on Russia permanently, so the pressure on t...

Russia's gold reserves highest ever
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2020

On September 22 it was reported that Russian banks increased their gold reserves by 25% in August. Reserves are now 121 tonnes. That is 10% greater than the previous all-time high in 2019. Gold reserves are now worth 7.5 billion, so said the Central Bank of Russia.The rise in gold reserves could ...

KUWAIT: Moody’s downgrades two notches as politics threaten liquidity
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Sep 2020 · 1 response

The downgrade came amidst an impasse between the government and parliament about financing the large deficit, either through a debt law or by drawing on sovereign wealth. This is part of broader governance challenges that make it nearly impossible to implement fiscal reform. We see a potential sc...

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