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Inflation slows down in March
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Apr 2021

The headline inflation rate eased from 4.7% in February to 4.5% in March, below the median analyst forecast of 4.8%. The disinflation mainly reflects a drop in food prices following normalizing fish and vegetable supplies as well as artificially steady meat prices with the two-month price freeze ...

Turkmen currency falling drastically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Apr 2021

On April 3 the Turkmen Manat (TMT) fell precipitously, losing 5% in one day. It is 40 to the USD on the black market. That is 50% lower than in January 2021. The TMT has slid since March 2020. Turkmenistan is heavily dependent on remittances from Turkmens who are guestworkers in other countries. ...

Inflation peaked in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Apr 2021

Rosstat reported that inflation in March reached 0.66% m-o-m, which is a deceleration compared to m-o-m in February. Even though y-o-y inflation reached 5.79% it is only slightly higher than y-o-y inflation in February. Overall, in the second half of March inflation w-o-w started to decelerate. I...

Foreign share of Russia's debt is lowest since 2015
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Apr 2021

Statistics published by the National Settlement Depository on April 6 showed that less than 30% of public debt is foreign owned. Foreign investors have sold their holdings of Russian public debt in 2021 because they fret that a tightening of sanctions might impact them. The reduction of foreigner...

​Detention of retired admirals: A test for Erdogan’s intentions
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Apr 2021

104 retired admirals issued a declaration warning that abandoning the Montreux Maritime Treaty could irrevocably harm Turkey’s sovereignty. This is the angle and its connection to Canal Istanbul that the foreign press and experts continue to focus on. 10 of the admirals are detained, with four be...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Apr 2021

Unfortunately, the expected severe aggravation of the pandemic in Brazil has proved true. In one month, the seven-day moving average of daily Covid deaths tripled, from 1.2 thousand to 3.1 thousand, setting a new world record. Indeed, the country’s daily death toll has exceeded the sum of the nex...

Twitter fined USD 117,000 by Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Apr 2021

On April 12 a court fined the social media giant for not taking down forbidden content. Cases against Facebook and YouTube are ongoing.In January 2021 these companies allowed posts to be published calling on people to demonstrate in favor of Navalny. Roskomnadzor accused those who posted these me...

Changes in the Armed Forces and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Apr 2021

The government initiates the new phase of emergency aid payments, which could have a positive impact on evaluations of the administration. On Wednesday, the Lower House may vote on the bill that allows private companies to purchase vaccines. The Federal Supreme Court decides on the Patent Law. On...

Good news on Covid at last
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Apr 2021

The lockdown measures introduced on March 8, combined with an accelerated pace of vaccination, finally appear to work. It took a week that the reinfection rate (the 7-day average of the ratio of daily new infections to the stock of active cases a week earlier) reached its peak at 7.43% on March 1...

Turkey Covid Watch - April 5, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 05 Apr 2021

• Cases rose exponentially through March and are now clearly exceeding their December peak. The situation in ICUs is close to critical in some cities, including in Istanbul. On the positive side, medical care capacity utilization as a whole is down, as new capacity has been added in the interim. ...

​Lockdown watch (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2021

On Black Saturday, President Rodrigo Duterte extended the ECQ status of Metro Manila and surrounding provinces (“NCR+”) by another week to April 11. The decision was not unexpected considering experts’ prognoses that a one-week lockdown would not be enough to control the surge in covid19 infectio...

Don’t bet on inflation peaking in May
TURKEY · Report · 05 Apr 2021

Consumer prices rose by 1.1%, m/m, in March, broadly in line with the consensus, with the 12-month rate rising further to 16.2%, from 15.6% in February. Domestic-PPI inflation was 4.1% in the month, which led to a more dramatic increase in the 12-month rate, to a whopping 31.2%, up from 27.1% in ...

Russia moves more troops to the border with Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Apr 2021

On April 2 the Russian government acknowledged that it has deployed additional forces to Crimea and on Ukraine's eastern border. Moscow maintains that this is not menacing. Ukraine is alarmed by this. The US government has affirmed its unstinting support for Ukraine. There has been an uptick in e...

Turkmenistan's president elected to its senate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2021

On March 28 elections were held for the newly created senate. No opposition candidates ran. Berdymukhamedov won 100% of the vote. The whole country voted in 2 hours at only 6 polling stations.

Sugar prices rising in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2021

On March 31 Izvestia reported that sugar factories have suspended sales and deliveries to supermarkets as the sugar sector waits for a state subvention. Food prices have gone up 7.7% in the last 12 months. That is the steepest annual rise since 2016. Living standards are at their lowest in 10 yea...

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