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Essential CIS Politics: November 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2019

• The Ukrainian conflict is de-escalating but peace is far from assured. • The Russia-Africa Summit was a major success for Russia, which is expanding its influence on that continent. • In Central Asia a common energy market has been agreed but this idea is still in the embryonic stage. • Arme...

Russian PMC struggling in Mozambique
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Nov 2019

In September 2019 200 men from the Russian Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner arrived in Mozambique. They are paid up to USD 3 000 per month which is much cheaper than other PMCs who bid for the job of assisting Mozambique defeat Islamic State. Islamic State is threatening the northern Cabo De...

Economics: Mixed credit market signals in 3Q19
MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2019

The economic slowdown has partially discouraged businesses from taking out loans or tapping into other financing sources in Mexico, but demand for consumer credit remains strong while mortgages and other housing-related credit grew slightly. We observed the private sector making more debt pl...

The “Alliance for Brazil” marks a restructuring of Brazil’s party system and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2019

Arrests after a higher court conviction will be a point of discussion in the Lower House and Senate. Wednesday is the deadline for the presentation of amendments to MP #905/19, which deals with labor contracts. The Senate will vote on the Parallel Pension Proposal. On Thursday, the First National...

Politics: Dismantling checks and balances
MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2019

President López Obrador continues to make significant progress in concentrating power in the presidency to the detriment of all other political institutions. By steadily re-engineering and re-staffing the entire institutional infrastructure, the administration is eliminating any potential restrai...

Head of the President Office complains about the IMF negotiations
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Nov 2019

Local web-site The Бабель wrote about an ‘off the record’ meeting of Andriy Bohdan, the Chief of Staff of the President Office with foreign and local journalists on November 15. Journalists of The Бабель did not participate at the meeting but had a talk with those who were invited. Allegedly at t...

The old story repeats itself again
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Nov 2019

By now, readers may have become somewhat bored by reading all the repeated claims by forecasters that the economy is now genuinely set to lose its growth momentum, after a period of heavy resistance to the weak European business cycle. Sharing the consensus view, we still believe that sooner or l...

Yandex ownership is changing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2019

United Russia Deputy Anton Gorelkin put forward a bill to restrict foreign ownership of internet companies. A Public Interest Foundation (PIF) will be set up with the authority to forbid the sale of 10% of Yandex's voting shares or economic interests to any party. There will be a board of 11 cont...

Indigenous groups stronger, Moreno weaker
ECUADOR · Forecast · 18 Nov 2019 · 1 response

Despite a large national consensus regarding the complicity of the indigenous groups in the violent riots of last October, there is no doubt that they emerged stronger from the protests while Moreno and the government are now weaker than before. Democracy, if we believe is there one in Ecuador, e...

Soft core inflation and weak underlying growth support a rate cut
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Nov 2019

Although headline GDP growth was robust, GDP growth excluding inventories actually contracted in Q319. The quarter witnessed a contraction of exports, investment in capital goods, and non-durable consumption per capita. We think that both the latest CPI and GDP data support a rate cut of 0.15% on...

Monitoring the pace of recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Nov 2019

There are no doubts that the economy has been rebounding, influenced by rising household consumption and growth of the service sector. The most recent monthly indicators point to continued growth in the third quarter, mainly led by household consumption, in turn driven by a combination of persist...

​Gulf weekly: Kuwait’s government resigns and Aramco downsizes IPO
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Nov 2019

The Gulf Weekly is intended as a skimmable summary of key developments, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Key headlines include: * Aramco has scaled back its IPO to 1.5% at a $1.6-1.7trn on weak foreign demand. * Kuwait’s government resigned, amidst signs of a rift be...

Belarus argues with Russia over warplanes
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2019

On November 15 President Lukashenko of Belarus complained that Russia was charging an extortionate amount for military aircraft. He threatened to end a common border that the two had established. Su-30 SM fighters are being purchased by Belarus. According to Belarus they were offered the planes f...

​No Christmas cheer on the horizon
TURKEY · Report · 17 Nov 2019

After a very brief period of confusion, senior US Senators began to repeat sanctions threats if S-400 anti-missile systems are activated. Ankara’s official position is that they will be made operational, but the dropping of any reference to a deadline can be viewed as a slim hope that the process...

Normandy format meeting agreed on Dec 9
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Nov 2019

Yesterday, on November 15, President Office informed that meeting under Normandy format (France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine) will do happen on December 9. Over the last few months President Zelenskiy has been striving to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential ways of de-escal...

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