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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Nov 2019

Fortunately, the rising attacks on institutions made by the Bolsonaro clan has been receiving the appropriate response from society and many members of the other branches of government, indicating that the path of radicalization is not supported by the vast majority of the population. Contrary to...

Politics: The generals appear to grow restless
MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2019

It took almost two weeks for the government to make its best effort to date to explain what happened before, during and after the failed attempt in Culiacan on October 17 to capture a son of imprisoned drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. During that time officials had ham-fistedly tried to field...

Economics: News is consistently negative
MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2019

The economic news published in October pointed almost unrelentingly toward a further deterioration of the economy as activity in Mexico contracted 0.4% in August compared to the same month a year earlier, according to the Global Economic Activity Index or IGAE. Perhaps the only bright spot was t...

Inflation’s post-Pastor trip almost done
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Nov 2019

Consumer prices rose by 2%, m/m, in October, which was in line with the consensus as well as our forecast. The 12-month CPI inflation hence eased further to 8.6%, from 9.3% in September. Producer prices (domestic) barely rose in the month (0.2%), which drove the 12-month rate down to 1.7% from 2....

New Delhi blocks Beijing on RCEP
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 04 Nov 2019

​Special points to highlight in this issue: While India’s rejection of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement at the summit meeting in Bangkok seems to have come as a surprise, as the main trade deficit member in a world of weak demand it is hard to see how India woul...

GDP growth expected to reach nearly 3% in Q319
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Nov 2019

Recent economic indicators suggest that GDP growth remained fairly strong in Q319; we estimate close to 3% saar. GDP growth is being fueled by steady PC demand and positive net exports. Capital flows continue to support a strong shekel, with robust FDI and fairly neutral financial flows. In poli...

Consumption Will Continue to Be the Engine for Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Nov 2019 · 3 responses

With the strong headwinds coming from the global economic slowdown, the total impossibility of any fiscal stimulus, and the still-repressed level of capital expenditures caused by the high uncertainty, household consumption is the only force that can boost recovery. Although fitfully, consumption...

Shaky start to Russia's sovereign internet
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2019

On November 1 Russia's sovereign internet came into effect. Russia can now cut itself from the worldwide web. This sparked protests earlier this year. The government says the purpose of the new law is to prevent the dissemination of disinformation and to thwart hacker attacks. Russian internet pr...

​Gulf weekly: Aramco is a go, central banks mirror Fed, PMs quit in Lebanon and Iraq
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Nov 2019

Economically the regional focus was on Saudi Arabia this week as Aramco formally announced its IPO, the annual Future Investment Initiative conference drew in executives and world leaders and new fiscal data was released. Meanwhile, political turmoil continued in the periphery, with protests brin...

On a wing and a prayer (again)
TURKEY · Forecast · 03 Nov 2019 · 1 response

As the end of 2019 approaches, the future is cast in two radically different narratives. Ankara wants us to believe that the worst is over, thanks to all the right policy interventions of the past year or so, and the very successful “rebalancing” that is now complete should pave the way toward 5%...

MH17 suspect says Holland tried to bribe him to change his story
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2019

Vladimir Tsemakh is suspected by some of shooting down flight MH17. The Malaysia Airlines flight was blown up in 2014 causing over 200 deaths. Ukraine blames pro-Russian rebels and the Russian Government blames the Ukrainian Army. Tsemakh is a Ukrainian citizens who served in a pro-Russian militi...

Investment Forum near Ukrainian Frontline
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2019

On October 29 over 700 businesspeople traveled to the Ukrainian city of Mariupol for an investment forum. The city is only 12 miles from the frontline. President Zelensky addressed the forum. He vowed that the government would protect investors and root out corruption. Donbass reconstruction was ...

Russia provides vital support to Venezuela
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2019

Russia has been sending hundreds of millions of USD and EUR in cash to Venezuela. US sanctions have all but cut off Venezuela from the world financial system. From May 2018 to April 2019 six shipments were sent by plane. The money was delivered to Venezuela's development bank. Moscow is eager to ...

Davids beat the Goliaths
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Nov 2019

Many an analyst is puzzled that the Central Bank has been holding interest rates constant, while its regional counterparts have started cutting. And the fact that the Bank’s next move next year might be a hike is considered by some to add insult to injury. But we don’t see a puzzle: Colombia is i...

Disengagement proceedings in Ukraine Conflict
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Nov 2019

On October 29 the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) stated that the Ukrainian soldiers and pro-Moscow rebels had both withdrawn from the front line near Zolote. This one of the steps set out by the peace agreement signed in October. This should lead to a Normandy Format ...

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