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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The South African Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged for the first time in 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Sep 2020

Following consecutive interest rate cuts during each meeting since the beginning of 2020 (including during a previously unscheduled meeting in April), the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the repo rate unchanged today at 3.5%. The last cut in the benchmark ...

Belarus’s future outlook
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 17 Sep 2020

On August 9 a presidential election was held in Belarus. The Electoral Commission declared that President Lukashenka had won his sixth consecutive election with 80% of the vote. The president has been in office since 1994. The 66-year-old has no intention of resigning. Although Lukashenka is u...

Forced labor in Uzbek cotton fields continues
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2020

The government insists that it ended obligatory unpaid toil in cotton fields. As it is fall the time has come to harvest cotton.The Cotton Campaign is a global movement for human rights in the cotton industry. The Cotton Campaign has been leading a boycott of Uzbek cotton since 2010 because the g...

Has Inflation begun to give worrying signs?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Sep 2020

When looking at the 12-month IPCA rate and its core by trimmed means with smoothing (Graph 1), there are no signs of impending inflation risk. But this is not what is indicated when considering the recent rise of food prices. The pandemic has triggered two important changes in the behavior of pri...

Political crisis will impact the economy
PERU · Report · 17 Sep 2020

Politics was again at center stage this month, first with Congress’s interpellation of Finance Minister María Antonieta Alva, and then the proposed impeachment of President Martín Vizcarra. Since the election of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski to the presidency in 2016, there has been a power struggle betw...

China virus check – week ending September 14, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Sep 2020

A few signs of weakness emerged in the latest batch of data for early/mid September. Auto sales remain strong, but property demand began to weaken, as did film box office. It is too early to point to a sustained downturn in consumer demand although it is possible that the period of pent-up demand...

Ukrainian budget is risky
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2020

The government has submitted its budget proposal. The budget has been criticized by the Center for Economic Strategy. There are three major issues with it which could impair macroeconomic stability.The deficit is planned to be USD 9.6 billion. That is 6% of GDP. This debt will cost a lot because ...

Bolsonaro authorizes the creation of a new social program, says Budget Rapporteur
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2020

Senator Márcio Bittar (MDB-AC), Rapporteur for the 2021 Budget, said on September 16 that he was authorized by Jair Bolsonaro to create a new social program to replace Renda Brasil. The previous day, Bolsonaro had said that the discussions would be suspended until 2022 due to differences in the s...

The economic implications of Covid for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Sep 2020

This extended report assesses how the Covid crisis exposed some of the economic vulnerabilities of Gulf states and how the crisis and policy responses relate to the long-term challenges the Gulf faces from the energy transition and structural weaknesses in their economies. Please follow up on the...

1 in 7 Russian coronavirus vaccine volunteers report side effects
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2020

Russia's Sputnik V vaccine for coronavirus does not seem to be risk free as first claimed. On September 13 the health minister noted that 1 in 7 of those taking the vaccine have side effects. Final clinical trials are underway. Only 300 people have been vaccinated thus far. 14% of them have felt ...

Visionary spending plan 2021
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Sep 2020

On September 14th Ministry of Finance presented spending plan 2021 to public.Next day it was published in details on the web-site of Verkhovna Rada. Minfin assumes a 4.6% GDP growth, 7.3% ytd (or 8.7% y/y) consumer inflation and UAH 29.1/ USD on average in 2021.Such approach allowed to boost nomi...

Russian industry: gradual recovery to continue
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2020

According to Rosstat, in August the Russian industry continued its gradual m-o-m recovery, therefore moving toward relatively moderate contraction of around 5.5% in 2020 as a whole. Even in the case of mining, where the oil production is still under the pressure of the OPEC+ deal, there was over ...

Russian stimulus package causes property boom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2020

On September 15 the Russian Central Bank's data showed that the government's scheme to revive the economy by supporting mortgages has caused property prices to rise. Mortgages in July and August were 40% up Y o Y. Prices for newly constructed buildings are up significantly.The government brought ...

New conflicts between Bolsonaro and the economic team do not threaten Guedes’s position
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro reacted strongly after the Special Finance Secretary of the Ministry of the Economy, Waldery Rodrigues stated in an interview that pensions could be frozen to finance the Renda Brasil program. Through a video posted on Twitter, Bolsonaro said that his government “is forbi...

Inflation in August surprises on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2020

The CPI remained stable (0.0% m/m) in August and declined by 0.8% y/y (from -0.6% y/y in July). Market expectations (and ours) were for a higher CPI of 0.2% m/m.There was no one factor explaining this low print, eight out of the ten major CPI items witnessed lower or stable prices. Domestic vacat...

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