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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The legislature focuses on the post-pandemic and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2020

The highlight of the week is the Central Bank meeting that will set the benchmark interest rate. In the Lower House, deputies will try to vote on the bill that allows for the use of R$ 177 billion from federal funds for the pandemic and the new legal framework for currency exchange. The Federal S...

Politics: General’s arrest unmasks major problems
MEXICO · Report · 26 Oct 2020

The October 15 arrest of Mexican General Salvador Cienfuegos in Los Angeles hit Mexico like a bombshell. He has been indicted on various drug trafficking-related counts corresponding to his time as defense minister throughout the administration of Enrique Peña Nieto. The news of Cienfuegos’s ...

Response to Ray Dalio
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Oct 2020

Ray Dalio published an op-ed in the Financial Times last week, "Don’t be blind to China’s rise in a changing world", October 23, to which I take issue. He displays a distinct lack of subtlety when it comes to knowledge of China and makes broad statements that are either exaggerations or are outri...

Monetary decision disappoints the markets
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Oct 2020

Markets were somewhat disappointed by the minor adjustments made in monetary policy last week. Economic indicators point to a sharp deceleration since the second lockdown, although manufacturing exports expanded. Moody’s decided to postpone a rating report on Israel, most likely until the fiscal ...

Dangerous monetary arithmetic, version 2020
ARGENTINA · Report · 26 Oct 2020

Capital markets remain concerned about Argentina’s economic and political outlook, despite the successful international debt swap and the more recent oversubscribed domestic dollar-linked debt placement. The failure of the long-term lockdown to avert the spread of the COVID virus and the conseque...

Monetary decision disappoints the markets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Oct 2020

Rates remained unchanged with little additional accommodation. Policy rates remain at 0.1%, Governor Yaron expressed little inclination to go to zero or negative. The bond purchasing framework was expanded by 35bn ILS, but the pace of monthly purchases is not expected to accelerate. LTRO’s will b...

A clear and imminent danger
TURKEY · Report · 25 Oct 2020

Turkey is in the midst of a deep COVID-19 crisis, which should supersede all other topics in the domestic agenda. On Saturday, the press reported that dozens of private hospitals in Istanbul were to be converted to pandemic care facilities, attesting to the severity of the second wave. We predict...

Turkey continues purchase of Russian missiles despite American objections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Oct 2020 · 1 response

On October 23 Turkey confirmed it was still purchasing - and now testing - Russian air defense S 400 systems. The US vigorously protested. Turkey is a NATO member. The Turkes insisted they have the right to buy Russian arms. The US threatened unspecified sanctions. The Turks are confident that NA...

Russia opening new defense office in Serbia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Oct 2020

On October 22 it was reported that Russia plans to open a military office in Serbia. Serbia is trying to join the EU but not NATO. Belgrade is amenable to the move but final approval has not yet been granted.Serbia was due to take part in Slavic Brotherhood military exercise in September 2020 alo...

Essential CIS Politics: October 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2020

* Russia: The economy is growing slowly but several worries remain. * Local semi-lockdowns in Russia have slowed the resurgence of the pandemic but there is no sense that full lockdown will be reintroduced. * Azerbaijan and Armenia fought for two weeks, and at least 400 peopl...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman cuts issuance to $2bn, Libyan ceasefire, Hariri returns
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Oct 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The World Bank published slightly more pessimistic forecasts than the IMF. * Apparent Iranian interference in the US election could complicate sanctions-lifting under Bide...

Russian car prices inflate by up to 15%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2020

On October 21 Kommersant published a survey showing that the fall in the RUB has caused car prices to rise between 3% and 15%. Imported cars went up most in price. BMWs, Audis, Volvos and Mercedeses all went up sharply. Lada prices are up 7% . 20% of all car sales are of Ladas.Carmakers do not wa...

How are Chinese banks in the U.S. responding to decoupling?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Oct 2020

U.S.-China relations have put the Chinese banks in an awkward position. They need to maintain their international presence but reduce the risks of exposure to the United States to prepare for the chance of further decoupling between the two countries – even under a Biden administration. To that e...

Covid-19 turning nasty in Europe, Hungary rejects lockdown measures for the time being
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2020

Here follow two graphs on new Covid-19 daily infection cases, representing 7-day averages (data from Worldometers.info, ECDC and Koronavirus.gov.hu). The first one is for Hungary:The second one shows data for Europe (the whole continent, EU and non-EU, this time, also as 7-day averages):We would ...

EU and Britain sanction Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2020

On October 22 Brussels and London imposed sanctions on high ranking Russian intellligence officers because of alleged hacking of the Bundestag in 2015. Two men have been forbidden from entering the EU and had their assets frozen. The GRU (military intelligence) unit claimed to be behind the cyber...

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