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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Current account and portfolio investment trends: an Alert
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Sep 2019

In this strange cycle through which the Brazilian economy is going through, manufacturing is one of the segments that is suffering the most (the other being civil construction). Although its performance was one of the positive highlights in the GDP figures for the second quarter, when manufacturi...

Moderating wage pressure supports moderate inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Sep 2019

Wage growth appears to have moderated in Q219, supportive of weak inflationary pressure. The fiscal deficit stabilized at 3.8% of GDP in August, and is likely to remain at this level into end-19. Various indicators are pointing to steady growth in Q319, such as strong business and consumer confid...

Gulf weekly: Saudi shakes up oil, Dubai warns on real estate and Kuwaiti emir in US hospital
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Sep 2019

​It was a dramatic week of changes in the Saudi energy sector which saw MBS’s half-brother, Abdulaziz, appointed as energy minister, the first time a royal has held this portfolio. In Dubai, the emir called for action to address real estate oversupply. France tried to advance its US-Iran mediatio...

Monthly inflation at 46 percent and rising
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Sep 2019

We revise our August month-on-month inflation forecast to 46 percent, up from our previous forecast of 39 percent. Inflation has sped up markedly since its low of 21 percent in June. This acceleration is owed to a sharp increase in black market dollar prices in August, especially in the last wee...

Ready for more political turbulence?
TURKEY · Report · 08 Sep 2019

The politics author wishes to warn the audience that President Erdogan may be on the war path to secure his political future, which will entail crackdowns on opposition and further tensions with the West. This prophecy bodes ill for economic and investor confidence. Why is Erdogan striking back? ...

Russia and Ukraine exchange prisoners
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2019

On September 8 Russia and Ukraine returned prisoners to each other. Those released included a key witness to the downing of the Malaysia Airlines flight in 2014 as well as 24 Ukrainian sailors. Some people are hopeful that this exchange of prisoners prefigures serious peace negotiations. Both sid...

SAUDI: Royal appointed as energy minister
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 08 Sep 2019

At the end of a dramatic week of changes in the Saudi energy sector, Abdulaziz bin Salman al Saud, the half-brother of the crown prince, Mohamad bin Salman (MBS), was appointed as energy minister, the first time a royal has held this portfolio. Khalid al-Falih was replaced as energy minister afte...

Macroeconomic conditions in Apr-May-Jun 2019
INDIA · Report · 07 Sep 2019

The Indian economy and the listed firms got strong growth in 1991–2011. After that, there have been greater difficulties. The top line of listed companies (non-oil and non-finance) has seen three weak patches. There was the Lehman crisis, when aggregate sales actually declined. There was a flat p...

Russia attempts political advertising crackdown
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Sep 2019

The Russian Communication Agency announced on September 6 that it was demanding that Facebook, Google and other internet companies must stop political advertisements in Russia on September 7 and 8. This is because local elections are taking place on Sunday 8 September. The government is increasin...

New Ukrainian cabinet appointed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Sep 2019

On August 29 President Zelensky appointed a new prime minister named Oleksiy Honcharuk. At 35 Honcharuk is the youngest person to hold the office. Zelensky has persuaded the Rada (Parliament) to approve his cabinet. Honcharuk is a lawyer who has headed various governmental agencies. He is a techn...

PRC influence on HK Corporates: The case of HSBC
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 Sep 2019

The statement Thursday September 4 that Carrie Lam will withdraw the Extradition Bill may soften but is unlikely to end the opposition protests among students. Meanwhile, with or without the end to the protests, we see increasing signs of intrusion into Hong Kong business by the PRC. As a result ...

Russia unveils plan for economy in its Far East
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Sep 2019

On September 4 the Russian Government announced a plan to boost economic growth in the Russian Far East. The program involves bringing in USD 174 billion in investment from the private sector by 2025. In 2012-18 the region received USD 106 billion in private investment. Therefore the new target m...

Inflation views
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Sep 2019

Government yesterday released inflation data for August showing the headline rate dropping from 2.4% in July to 1.7%, largely due to base effects as well as lower fuel and electricity prices.The latest inflation print is in line with our forecast and we reiterate here what we said in our outlook ...

MNB governor calls for looser fiscal policy, pleased with the current policy line of the MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Sep 2019

MNB governor Matolcsy spoke yesterday at the annual conference of the Hungarian Society of Economics. In his usual visionary style, he enlisted a large number of negative international phenomena from Brexit and East-West trade war to the weak German economy, Italy's problems, North-South conflict...

The current account deficit widens further in Q2 2019
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Sep 2019

Earlier this week, the South African economy escaped a technical recession in the second quarter of 2019 when the real GDP growth numbers showed an increase of 3.1% q/q. However, today, the South African Reserve Bank released the current account of the balance of payments data, indicating yet an...

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