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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Centrão: from a solution to the problem and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Nov 2020

Despite the holiday on Monday, this will be a busy week in Brasília. In the Senate, leaders will try to make a deal to advance important proposals, including autonomy of the Central Bank. On Wednesday, an analysis of presidential vetoes is scheduled, and the government will try to postpone the se...

Final thoughts on the impact of the US election on the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Nov 2020

The outcome of the US elections will have significant implications for the GCC. The possibility of a conflict with Iran would significantly increase in a second Trump term. Under Biden, a new nuclear deal is expected, but wouldn't be easy given the increasing hardline dominance within Iran. A foc...

Economics: Data points to a restrained and uncertain rebound
MEXICO · Report · 02 Nov 2020

The data published over the past month has provided evidence of a considerable rebound in activity compared to the relative lockdown much of the economy experienced during the second quarter, although not enough to dispel expectations of a very negative economic performance for full-year 2020. So...

OFZ: Supply is evaporating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Nov 2020

October was the most successful month ever for the Finance Ministry in terms of OFZ issuance – it raised R1.5 trln. The main buyers were local commercial banks, which were offered floating-rate bonds with about a 50-bp premium to RUONIA. As a result, the government came very close to its annual b...

The BoI sounds rather optimistic; no further accommodation likely
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Nov 2020

Recent economic indicators point to some improvement in activity since the partial opening of the second closure. Labor productivity in industry has improved sharply, which supports future growth potential. In Q320, non-residents and local institutions sold FX, while the BoI continues significant...

Nagorno-Karabakh & Transcaucasia: Recent dynamics
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Nov 2020

October 2020 saw the heaviest fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia since 1994. This conflict has threatened to draw in several adjacent countries. In this report, we provide background on the conflict and examine its most recent geopolitical dynamics, including the Turkish dimension, and give ...

The state of the banking sector during the pandemic
INDONESIA · Report · 02 Nov 2020

The Indonesian economy has been impacted by the pandemic in the past few months. Various sectors of the economy, especially sectors related to people’s mobility, such as transportation, hotels and tourism, have, with some exceptions, been impacted the most. In addition, retail businesses and rest...

Zelensky and Constitutional Court row over anti-corruption
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2020

On October 30 President Zelensky crossed swords with the Constitutional Court when it nullified anti-corruption laws and limited the authority of the National Anti-Corruption Agency (NAZK). Zelensky asked the Rada to annul the court's judgment.The court said that the penalty for making false stat...

Moldova run-off election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2020

On November 1 a presidential election was held. No candidate won over 50% of the vote. The top two candidates now go to a second round. The lower placed candidates are eliminated. The second round will be on November 15.President Dodon is pro-Russian. The challenger Maia Sandy is pro-EU. Sandu wo...

A new strategy for reforms, a new budget, and the same political uncertainty
PANAMA · Report · 02 Nov 2020

On August 25, the President announced a national dialogue commencing in November, which includes topics such as the reform of the public pension plan, the rationalization of water, education, efficiency of national health services, and the Constitution. Our estimate for the timetable of the debat...

The BoI sounds rather optimistic; no further accommodation likely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Nov 2020

Highlights: Economic indicators point to a gradual recovery The weekly credit card purchases have increased by 20% in the past two weeks (through 28.10) as the economy has opened up. The Google Mobility Index to the workplace has rebounded to close to pre-second-closure levels. Hi-tech service ex...

Election disputed in Georgia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Nov 2020

On October 31 a parliamentary election was held and the ruling Georgian Dream Party claimed victory. The opposition parties reject this claim. Georgian Dream got 48% of the vote. Its main rival the United National Movement won 27%. The Alliance of Patriots (which is pro Russian) won 3%. Observers...

Tajik President reinaugurated
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Nov 2020

On October 30 President Rahmon was sworn in for his 5th term in Tajikistan. He has been in office since 2002. The president pardoned 378 prisoners. Four loyalists ran against Rahmon who won over 80% of the vote. Rahmon is 68% and in poor health. His son Rustam, 32, is being groomed to succeed. Ru...

A long and difficult descent
TURKEY · Report · 01 Nov 2020

The Turkish political story has become too convoluted for any sane mind to follow and trace out conclusions. We do our best, but our judgment about the clear and present dangers to politics and economy are somewhat different than what we construe as the near-consensus view from abroad. First, we ...

MegaFon starts project to provide satellite data access
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2020

MegaFon wants to allow people on the ground to access data from low Earth orbiting satellites. MegaFon will invest USD 76 million between now and 2022 in researching new tech. MegaFon 1440 will be set up. That will be an R and D company. The objective is to allow high speed access to data from sp...

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