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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Bolsonaro regains popularity and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2020

Discussions resume on Tax Reform in the Joint Congressional Committee. The agenda in the Senate is focused on provisional measures. The Lower House may vote on aid to companies in the public transportation sector. Two important laws will be sanctioned by President Bolsonaro: 1) the law that chang...

The Fiscal Challenge: Reforms, Risks and Monetary Consequences
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jul 2020

The Central Bank has been expressing concern regarding the next monetary policy movements. Might there be an effective lower bound (ELB) for the basic interest rate in Brazil, as is the case of other emerging countries? Will the path of the primary results and gross debt alter the risk premiums a...

Economic pain amid the pandemic
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Jul 2020

As Covid-19 infections spread exponentially in Venezuela, the government is focusing its economic response on Homeland System cash transfers. Although we expect these transfers to surge in real terms over the second half of 2020, we see them as woefully inadequate, and real household income is st...

Signs of stability in domestic demand in July, despite restrictions
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Jul 2020

Initial economic indicators for July point to some stability in domestic demand. Unemployment reached 11.8% in the last two weeks of June, but most likely drifted somewhat higher in July given the increasing restrictions. Macro fundamentals and flows have supported a stronger shekel, despite aggr...

Russia: The key rate cut, but CBR plans may become muted
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Jul 2020 · 1 response

he Russian Central Bank cut the key policy rate by 25 bp to 4.25% and released its updated macroeconomic forecast along with some thoughts and interpretations of the ongoing developments. Generally, this updated forecast doesn’t differ much from GKEM Analytica's forecast published last week. Howe...

Strong rebound, even without a major stimulus
CHINA · Report · 26 Jul 2020

GDP rose 3.2% y/y in Q2 -- a remarkable performance amid global pandemic. In June, industrial output was up 4.8% y/y, and up 0.4 pps from May, though has still not reached the pre-pandemic level, and was down 1.1 pps from Q4 2019. Investment, mostly driven by state investment, was up 5.6% y/y, u...

Signs of stability in domestic demand in July, despite increasing restriction
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Jul 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 27.7.20:Recent data suggests that domestic demand has stabilized recently:Credit card purchases increased by 3.5% in July (through 21.7).The Google Mobility Index points to some stability in the past week.Unemployment declined to 11.8% in the last two wee...

Russian interest rate lower ever
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2020

On July 24 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut its key rate to 4.25%. The aim is to revivify the economy. This is the third interest cut in a row since April 2020. Coronavirus has been the major factor in prompting the widely expected move. The cut has been by 25 basis points which is less than ...

Belarus opposition politician runs away to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2020

On July 24 Valery Tsepkalo fled to Moscow. He wanted to challenge the incumbent Lukashenka for the presidency. But Tspekalo was barred from running. He has left the country citing worries about the safety of his wife and children. Others who tried to run for the presidency have been sent to jail....

US accuses Russia of arming mercenaries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2020

On July 24 the US said that Russia has breached the UN arms embargo on Libya. The United States published satellite photos which purported to show Russian manufactured armaments in the hands of Wagner Group mercenaries in Libya. There were photos of Ilyushin Russian transport planes unloading suc...

A loss for Bolsonarismo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro’s allies had their Twitter accounts deleted yesterday by decision of Supreme Court (STF) Minister Alexandre de Moraes. Bolsonaro’s allies are targets of investigations for allegedly spreading fake news. It is important to note that they were the targets of a search and se...

Which is the final offer?
ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Jul 2020

As the August 4 deadline for the debt swap comes closer, the question that remains is whether the government is going to stick to its latest proposal, presented on July 7, or if it will revise it once again. According to official statements, the government seemed to have decided, this time around...

NBU ouster likely to stall IMF deal
UKRAINE · Report · 24 Jul 2020

The replacement of the head of the NBU was the key event of recent weeks. On July 1st, Yakiv Smoliy submitted his letter of resignation, claiming political pressure. The move triggered a real storm. Forced replacement of the Central Bank governor is a blatant violation of the IMF memorandum, wh...

​GULF WEEKLY: Rulers hospitalized, Qatar seeks compensation, Oman VAT law discussed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Jul 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Kuwait’s emir has flown to the Mayo Clinic after emergency bladder surgery. * The Saudi king is recovering in Riyadh after gallbladder surgery. * MBS’s succession as King...

Oil demand in China: a short-term bounce?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jul 2020

China has clearly been one of the success stories in handling the coronavirus. The flattening of the curve was a reflection of the nature of the tightly controlled political system. The numbers may not be completely trustworthy but even at multiples the caseload is still much lower than in other ...

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