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Gulf weekly: Houthis strike Saudi oil sites and Bolton is out
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Sep 2019

Another dramatic week in the Gulf as the Houthi rebels in Yemen temporarily knocked out 5.7m b/d of Saudi oil production offline in drone strikes. Prior to this, the surprise sacking of John Bolton had raised hopes for an easing of US-Iran tensions. There was also plenty going on during the week ...

SAUDI: Update on Abqaiq/Khurais attacks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Sep 2019

Brent oil opened up about $8 in early trading in Asia, one of the sharpest every daily spikes. It now looks like only about a third of the lost 5.7m b/d will come back online by end-Monday. The rest will take weeks. We estimate that there is about another 1.65m b/d in spare capacity at other Saud...

Fed, two summits and many prayers
TURKEY · Report · 15 Sep 2019

Fed FOMC decision and President Erdogan’s summits first with Rouhani and Putin, then with Trump at the sidelines of the UN opening ceremony will set the country risk premium for autumn. There are very low odds for Erdogan convincing Moscow and Tehran to turn over the northern part of the rebel pr...

Ruling by European Court of Justice ruling threatens oil and gas supplies to the EU
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Sep 2019

On September 11 the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled that Gazprom will have limited access to Opal. Opal is a natural gas pipeline in Germany that is linked to Nord Stream which supplies gas to several EU countries. Germany wants Gazprom to be allowed to supply more gas whereas Poland does n...

SAUDI: The big oil attack we’ve all been waiting for
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 14 Sep 2019

Reports suggest Houthi rebels successfully attacked a crude oil processing facility, handling 5m b/d of Saudi oil output. This is the largest outage in the history of the global oil sector. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has alleged Iran was directly behind the attack.Early indications are tha...

Russian investments abroad almost double
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2019

On September 13 it was reported in Vedomosti newspaper that Russian investment in foreign startups was USD 860 million in the first half of 2019. This is more than twice as much as in the first six months of 2018 (USD 418 million). In the first six months of 2019 Russian investors have put only U...

Russia considers peace talks with Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Sep 2019

On September 13 Russia said it is willing to participate on peace talks about the Ukrainian Conflict. The talks would take place in Paris but no date has yet been set. However, the Kremlin set some preconditions. The warring factions would have to disengage first and special status for Donbass mu...

How important are Hong Kong bank loans for China?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Sep 2019

One of the arguments for China’s hands-off approach to Hong Kong has been the importance of Hong Kong as a source of capital. Today we look at the HK banks and ask two questions: 1) Are they significant for China? 2) What is their risk in case of a significant downturn in China?

Russian Police arrest opposition
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2019

On September 12 police raided 150 buildings associated with opposition campaigners. Veteran anti-corruption campaigner Alexey Navalny has been arrested for the umpteenth time. Navalny's organization is called the Anti-Corruption Foundation. It has been accused of money laundering. The Russian Par...

​MPC cuts more than expected, less than feared
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Sep 2019

The Monetary Policy Committee lowered the policy rate (one-week repo rate) by 325 bps today to 16.5%, about 50-75 bps more than the median expectations (of 250-275 bps cut), but this was, in effect, a compromise move of sorts because the magnitude of the cut was less than feared (350+ bps) by mos...

A battle of wills
PERU · Report · 12 Sep 2019

Since President Martín Vizcarra stunned Congress six weeks ago with his request for early general elections, Peru has been immersed in a political tug-of-war. While the president accuses Congress of dwarfing his plans and dragging its feet over political and judicial reforms, the congressional ma...

Russian net public debt is down to zero
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Sep 2019

Putin has always taken debt very seriously indeed. In 1998 Russia was a few billion dollars short of meeting its repayments and the financial system was wrecked as a result. It appears that Putin must have vowed that he would never let this recur. Therefore he pursued a policy of iron fiscal disc...

Georgia appoints a new Prime Minister
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Sep 2019

A new prime minister has taken office in the Republic of Georgia. Georgi Gakharia, a member of the ruling Georgian Dream Party, became prime minister on September 8. Gakharia, 44, previously served as interior. He has been denounced as a Moscow stooge by the opposition. He studied at Lomonosov Un...

The forint went to a new record low again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Sep 2019

This morning, the forint weakened to EURHUF 332.15, a new record low. Apparently, yesterday's inflation data, which signalled the very likely continuation of loose central bank policy, and the rather unexpectedly revealed conflict between governor Matolcsy and finance minister Varga, had an impac...

Castillo will face former President Fernandez in the PLD primaries
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 10 Sep 2019

Gonzalo Castillo has been selected, on behalf of the Danilo Medina faction, to run against former president Leonel Fernández in the PLD primaries on October 6. Castillo, who was Medina's public works minister for over seven years, has a limited political history, but has been very loyal to Medina...

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