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Gulf weekly: Aftermath of Abqaiq attack resonates but other business continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Sep 2019

The aftermath of the Abqaiq attack remained the main focus for the oil market and regional geopolitics. Developments to date seem to support our view that an escalation is unlikely and the focus is shifting to posturing and possible negotiations at the UN General Assembly over the next few days. ...

On the BRSA decision
TURKEY · Report · 22 Sep 2019

We depart from our usual weekly format this week, and share some quick thoughts on last week’s BRSA decision that instructed banks to reclassify TL46 billion (about $8 billion) worth of loans as non-performing. We shall report on politics, and if need be on economics, during the week.

Secret negotiations over Ukrainian bank
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2019

The Financial Times published a story on September 19 saying that the Prime Minister of Ukraine Oleksiy Honcharuk is in negotiation with Ihor Kolomoisky about PrivatBank. Kolomoisky owned PrivatBank until it was nationalized in 2016. Kolomoisky then lived in Switzerland due to legal exposure in U...

Low growth, high fiscal deficit, and mixed news in the institutional front
PANAMA · Report · 20 Sep 2019

The growth rate in the second quarter was 2.8%, the lowest since the financial crisis of 2Q-2009. For the first half of the year it was 3.0%; therefore, the 4.0% growth that MEF projects seems difficult to achieve, despite the expected boom in copper exports. From a national accounting-GDP perspe...

Ukrainian budget is reasonable and optimistic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Sep 2019

On September 15 the Ukrainian Government published its budget for 2020. The budget is based on predicted GDP growth of 3.3%. The World Bank estimates it will be 3.4%.Subsidies to keep utility prices low are being slashed from USD 2.2 million this year to USD 1.9 million in 2020. As there might be...

Detained American banker in Russia a step closer to freedom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Sep 2019

Michael Calvey was arrested in February 2019 on suspicion of massive fraud. Calvey had been an executive at Baring Vostok which is one of the biggest investment firms in Russia. A state investigative committee concluded on September 18 that the ITFG shares that Baring Vostok transferred to Vostoc...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 20 Sep 2019

Russia’s economy is making slow progress due to fiscal discipline. Kazakhstan has faced serious protests against overweening Chinese influence. Ukraine and Russia are de-escalating the conflict in east Ukraine. The Uzbek currency has floated freely as part of economic liberalization.

Conference call on Mexico's 2020 budget proposal: Will fiscal discipline prevail in 2020?
MEXICO · Report · 20 Sep 2019

Mexico conference call topics included: What can the 2020 Budget Proposal tell us about Mexico's direction going forward? Can fiscal discipline be maintained while AMLO's key social projects advance? How will the parameters proposed in the budget impact the oil industry and public sector debt sta...

Supply-side solutions for demand-side problems
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Sep 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue:​ * Although China’s GDP growth has continued to slow quite dramatically, Beijing doesn’t yet seem to have been panicked into planning a heavy stimulus. Although I do think we can expect a mild stimulus in the next month or two, I continue to believe t...

Default stress in China: The case of the Bank of East Asia
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Sep 2019

Corporate defaults reported in the 1H 2019 financials of the Bank of East Asia in Hong Kong relating to mainland corporates has raised red flags about the weakness of the Chinese economy. Do these loans point to bigger problems?

Peace talks on Ukraine falter
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Sep 2019

On September 18 peace talks on the Ukrainian Conflict faltered. Steinmeier forumla had been suggested which entailed both sides withdrawing combatants gradually. Donbass would also be given a unique degree of autonomy. Moscow stipulated the aforementioned conditions in order to attend a summit in...

South Africa’s baseline interest rate remains unchanged at 6.5% despite stable inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Sep 2019

Today, in a largely anticipated move, the SA Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%, which also leaves the prime interest rate at 10%. The Reserve Bank had adjusted the repo rate for the first time in 2019 during end-July, cuttin...

Special Report: Pakistan-Central Asia and the prospects for a post-Afghan war scenario
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2019

Afghanistan has recently received a lot of media attention due to increased violent attacks conducted by extremist groups, amidst peace negotiations between the US and the Taliban. President Trump has announced his intention to pull out US troops from the country and US officials have been holdin...

After Abqaiq: A quick recovery and reasons to de-escalate
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Sep 2019

Aramco says it’s restored Khurais output and about half of Abqaiq, with a full return to normal in two weeks. The oil market seems to believe Aramco, which we think can restore output before fully repairing the damage because the facilities had previously been operating below capacity. Aside from...

​Erdogan issues ultimatum to USA
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Sep 2019

Coming out of the Astana Summit, which appeared not to yield a break-through on Idlib, Erdogan roared out an ultimatum to USA. He gave USA two weeks to sign under an agreement to erect a safe zone in North-East Syria, where he wants to resettle two million refugees. To cut a long story short, I w...

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