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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

No change in the sovereign credit rating from Fitch and S&P on August 16
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Aug 2019

Both Fitch Ratings and S&P had a revision date for their BBB/Stable sovereign credit ratings for Hungary on August 16. However, both agencies refrained from changing the ratings on this occasion. S&P did not even pick up the issue, whereas Fitch confirmed its BBB/Stable, saying that Hungary deser...

​Hernán Lacunza replaces Nicolas Dujovne as Economic Minister
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Aug 2019

After some days of rumors that former economic minister Nicolas Dujovne wanted to resign to his post, the government announced this Saturday that Hernán Lacunza, former Economic Minister of the Province of Buenos Aires, assumes the position left behind by Dujovne. Dujovne felt responsible for the...

The dire fiscal problem of the states
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Aug 2019

The pension reform has raised the minimum retirement age for all categories of employees, however kept privileges for police personnel (including state police forces) and teachers. In this Report we show that many state governments have exceeded the limit of 60% of Net Current Revenue (NCR) for p...

Moreno's hardships in the way of the IMF Agreement?
ECUADOR · Report · 16 Aug 2019

President Moreno has stated he is not seeking re-election. However, it seems he wants to finish his office term as a popular president, or at least not be forced out of office. He recently had to face the protests of thousands of teachers who retired under the promise of former President Corre...

Zelenskiy gets (almost) all the power
UKRAINE · Report · 16 Aug 2019

After a new party led by comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy gained majority power in Ukraine in the July 21st parliamentary elections, Zelenskiy stepped handily into the presidency. None of Ukraine’s previous five presidents has come close to wielding such power from the very beginning of their terms. ...

It is time for a weaker forint in H2
HUNGARY · Report · 15 Aug 2019

The preliminary Q2 GDP data reflected some deceleration on unadjusted basis, but only very little, and even that was almost fully cancelled out by calendar and seasonal adjustments. Thus, GDP once again beat everyone’s expectation and showed in fact the strongest yoy growth rate in Europe. The li...

This time is different: comparing 2008 and 2018 in the performance of the automobile industry
INDIA · Report · 15 Aug 2019

We compare 2008 and 2018 as seen in three components of the automobile industry – HCV (heavy commercial vehicles), passenger cars and two-wheelers. In all three cases, we work with seasonally adjusted levels, and express the starting value as an index of 100. This permits direct comparison of two...

Hong Kong protests and the economy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Aug 2019

Some analysts are treating the Hong Kong protests as an exercise in democracy. Others say the demonstrators are restricting themselves to five more limited goals, the main one being the formal withdrawal of the extradition treaty. I tend to be an economic determinist and believe that the rising i...

South Africa’s National Health Insurance (NHI): Is it feasible and at what cost to the struggling economy?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Aug 2019

In the National Development Plan (NDP), it is stipulated that by 2030, South Africa’s health system should offer “quality care to all, free at the point of service, or paid for by publicly provided or privately funded insurance”. As such, to ensure provision of universal quality healthcare servic...

GDP grows 4.6% in 2Q19, twice stronger than expected
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Aug 2019

GDP grew 4.6% y/y in 2Q19, according to provisional statistics agency report. The number is twice larger than we expected for the second quarter. Sluggish industry performance (+1.5% y/y in 2Q19) was among the reasons for our modest estimate. The report on GDP was provisional and we do not have d...

No more disinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Aug 2019

Disinflation ended. The rebound in monthly inflation we expected for August came in July as stronger public spending propped up consumption and the surge in the price of the dollar in the parallel market affected prices and expectations. We revised up our July inflation estimate to 32 percent fro...

YEMEN: Conflict in Aden might help end Yemen’s civil war, benefiting the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Aug 2019

Counterintuitively, a new axis of conflict in Yemen, which saw southern separatists capture Aden last weekend, might help end the civil war. This is because it could be easier for the separatists than the government to find accommodation with the Houthi rebels, who control the northern highlands....

SAUDI: Aramco H1 results build hype for a likely IPO in H2 2020, but dividend policy remains vague
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Aug 2019

Net income was down 12% on a 4% fall in oil price and a 7% rise in opex. However, transfers to the government were up 11% to $117bn due to an unexplained special dividend. Many of the initial barriers to an IPO have diminished, and much of the groundwork has been done, so we therefore expect it t...

The High Court rules in favor of the president over the public protector ‒ twice in a row
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Aug 2019 · 1 response

Following the Public Protector’s (PP) (Ms. Mkhwebane) findings that the President (Mr. Ramaphosa) misled Parliament as well as the nation by not disclosing knowledge about (the sources of) donations for his 2017 ANC presidential campaign, Mr. Ramaphosa applied for an urgent interdict against Ms. ...

Fear of nuclear arms race
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2019

More information has been has been discovered about the August 8 nuclear accident in Russia. On August 8 accident took place at off Archangelsk killing 5 nuclear weapons experts. At the funeral of the scientists the head of the nuclear arms program praised the men for their courage. The US suspec...

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