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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Deterioration of the external scenario
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Aug 2019

​The indications have increased that the projection for growth of 0.8% in 2019 is optimistic. One of the reasons is the worse external situation. The trade tensions between China and the United States have created a climate of uncertainty harmful to global trade and investment; Germany’s GDP rece...

Hong Kong is distracting us from the growth and credit data
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Aug 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: * While nothing can be ruled out in such a politically complicated environment, the cost of a direct intervention by forces loyal to Beijing into Hong Kong is very high, making it unlikely. An intervention would cause a sharp fall in Chinese exports ...

Underlying growth remains steady in Q2
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Aug 2019

Headline Q2 2019 GDP growth reached 1.0% saar following 4.7% in Q1 2019. * Growth excluding import taxes reached 3.1%, following 3.2% in Q1 2019. This is more reflective of real activity, due to the higher taxes on new vehicles on April 1. * Exports (excluding diamonds and start-ups...

​Gulf weekly: Aramco call and regional tensions disturb Eid holidays
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Aug 2019

Welcome to our first weekly economic and political update for the Gulf. Last week was quiet on the domestic economic front, given the Eid al-Adha holidays, which meant that government departments were closed all week and local markets were also closed for most of the week. However, there were sti...

Under pressure
TURKEY · Report · 18 Aug 2019 · 1 response

Turkey’s political risks shift quickly, but the sum-total never declines. Erdogan administration survived the summer without a disaster by swapping one threat for another. Alas, it wasted very precious time on structural reform and fiscal austerity, dithering on how to end AKP’s decline in popula...

No change in the sovereign credit rating from Fitch and S&P on August 16
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Aug 2019

Both Fitch Ratings and S&P had a revision date for their BBB/Stable sovereign credit ratings for Hungary on August 16. However, both agencies refrained from changing the ratings on this occasion. S&P did not even pick up the issue, whereas Fitch confirmed its BBB/Stable, saying that Hungary deser...

​Hernán Lacunza replaces Nicolas Dujovne as Economic Minister
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Aug 2019

After some days of rumors that former economic minister Nicolas Dujovne wanted to resign to his post, the government announced this Saturday that Hernán Lacunza, former Economic Minister of the Province of Buenos Aires, assumes the position left behind by Dujovne. Dujovne felt responsible for the...

The dire fiscal problem of the states
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Aug 2019

The pension reform has raised the minimum retirement age for all categories of employees, however kept privileges for police personnel (including state police forces) and teachers. In this Report we show that many state governments have exceeded the limit of 60% of Net Current Revenue (NCR) for p...

Moreno's hardships in the way of the IMF Agreement?
ECUADOR · Report · 16 Aug 2019

President Moreno has stated he is not seeking re-election. However, it seems he wants to finish his office term as a popular president, or at least not be forced out of office. He recently had to face the protests of thousands of teachers who retired under the promise of former President Corre...

Zelenskiy gets (almost) all the power
UKRAINE · Report · 16 Aug 2019

After a new party led by comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy gained majority power in Ukraine in the July 21st parliamentary elections, Zelenskiy stepped handily into the presidency. None of Ukraine’s previous five presidents has come close to wielding such power from the very beginning of their terms. ...

It is time for a weaker forint in H2
HUNGARY · Report · 15 Aug 2019

The preliminary Q2 GDP data reflected some deceleration on unadjusted basis, but only very little, and even that was almost fully cancelled out by calendar and seasonal adjustments. Thus, GDP once again beat everyone’s expectation and showed in fact the strongest yoy growth rate in Europe. The li...

This time is different: comparing 2008 and 2018 in the performance of the automobile industry
INDIA · Report · 15 Aug 2019

We compare 2008 and 2018 as seen in three components of the automobile industry – HCV (heavy commercial vehicles), passenger cars and two-wheelers. In all three cases, we work with seasonally adjusted levels, and express the starting value as an index of 100. This permits direct comparison of two...

Hong Kong protests and the economy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Aug 2019

Some analysts are treating the Hong Kong protests as an exercise in democracy. Others say the demonstrators are restricting themselves to five more limited goals, the main one being the formal withdrawal of the extradition treaty. I tend to be an economic determinist and believe that the rising i...

South Africa’s National Health Insurance (NHI): Is it feasible and at what cost to the struggling economy?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Aug 2019

In the National Development Plan (NDP), it is stipulated that by 2030, South Africa’s health system should offer “quality care to all, free at the point of service, or paid for by publicly provided or privately funded insurance”. As such, to ensure provision of universal quality healthcare servic...

GDP grows 4.6% in 2Q19, twice stronger than expected
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Aug 2019

GDP grew 4.6% y/y in 2Q19, according to provisional statistics agency report. The number is twice larger than we expected for the second quarter. Sluggish industry performance (+1.5% y/y in 2Q19) was among the reasons for our modest estimate. The report on GDP was provisional and we do not have d...

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