NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - TURKEY: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?...

Russia's credit rating now BBB
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2019

On August 9 Fitch Ratings lifted Russia's credit rating to BBB. Fitch said the rating move was due to sound public spending policy and a proper strategy to limit inflation. BBB is still the second lowest rating for countries that are basically stable. Standard and Poor's also rates Russia at BBB....

Pension Reform in the Senate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2019

Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes is expected to present the government’s Tax Reform proposal. In the Lower House, the rapporteur, Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PE), presents his workplan. In the Senate, the CCJ begins discussions on Pension Reform. This week’s Talking Points * Pension Refo...

Interest rate – new cuts ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Aug 2019

As the economy is stagnant and GDP operating below its potential (high unemployment and large industrial capacity slack), and inflation (current and expected) below the target, all the elements are in place for the Central Bank to cut the SELIC rate further. The most recent published indicators s...

Politics: What sort of opposition can endure?
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2019

At least one, and perhaps both of the main opposition parties in Mexico will hold leadership contests in the coming days and weeks, with significant implications for the political situation. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) held a national consultation last Sunday to elect a new nation...

Economics: Less inequality, but new trouble areas
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2019

Last week’s release of the National Statistics Institute’s bi-annual National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (Enigh), which corresponds to the period between 2017 and 2018, and the accompanying analysis of how the various dimensions and degrees of poverty have evolved from Coneval, deliv...

Unexpected results in the Primaries - Game Over for Macri?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 12 Aug 2019 · 2 responses

The results for the government in the obligatory, simultaneous primary elections (PASO) have been much worse than expected. The Kirchnerists obtained a landslide victory, in particular for candidates for president and governor of the province of Buenos Aires, i.e., the two most critical electoral...

BoI company survey pointing to modest growth in Q3
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Aug 2019

The BoI Company Survey for Q2 2019 is pointing to modest growth. * The net total balance is only +5, below that in 2018 (+12.8). * Industry and retail trade are reporting contraction in activity, while services, construction and hotels are reporting expansion. * Manufacturing...

Calm restored in Kyrgyzstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2019

On August 8 the ex-president Atambaev was arrested. He is facing charges of corruption and abuse of power. Atambaev's supporters had tried to prevent his arrest. Fighting led to the death of one police officer and the injury of 80 people. Order has now been restored.At the start of August there w...

Russia sees largest protests since 2011
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2019

On August 10 at least 20 000 people attended an illegal protest in Moscow. The protestors estimated the number at 50 000. The protest was against arbitrary decision to ban opposition candidates from the local elections due on September 8. Well known performers such as the rapper Oxymiron attended...

The economic implications of Ricardo Martinelli's acquittal
PANAMA · In Brief · 10 Aug 2019

Not guilty of the accusations that the Attorney General office (Ministerio Público, MP) presented against former president Ricardo Martinelli (July 2009-July 2014): illegal wiretapping of citizens and embezzlement of public funds. This was the unanimous verdict of three judges on Friday evening, ...

Negotiations, sanctions and worries
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Aug 2019

Respecting the secrecy imposed by Norway, government and opposition representatives have been negotiating in total confidentiality. The Norwegian Foreign Ministry's communiqué dated 2 August 2019 suggested there had been progress but agreements on critical issues were still pending. It emphasized...

China’s shadow banking flashpoint: wealth management products
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Aug 2019

The weakest link in China’s financial system is the size and growth of the financial system’s wealth management products (WMPs). The property market may be the shakiest aspect of the real economy, but on the financing side, WMPs are a high-risk funding source. The CNY29 trillion outstanding WMPs ...

SAUDI: Latest data show the economy remains firm as fiscal easing increases but global headwinds will continue to weigh on equities
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 09 Aug 2019

July PMI data shows the non-oil economy remains strong, consistent with the latest Q2 fiscal data, which revealed a deficit that had widened to USD9bn.The authorities are pursuing accommodative fiscal policy to prop up growth despite a global oil demand shock weighing on oil prices. However, refo...

Lower House concludes Pension Reform vote
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2019

The Lower House on August 7 concluded voting on Pension Reform. The proposal now moves to the Senate. In the Senate, there are fewer instances for deliberation on a constitutional amendment, which makes progress of the proposal less complex and swifter. The Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC,...

Clashes in Kyrgyzstan as ex-president defies government
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Aug 2019

The capital of Kyrgyzstan saw street brawls on August 7 as supporters of the ex-president clashed with the police. Former president Almazbek Atambaev is wanted in court on charges of abuse of power. Atambaev is holed up in his compound just outside the capital Bishkek and refusing to obey subpoen...