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​East of Euphrates: Is it settled now?
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2019

It has long been one of my most tiring mottos that “Turkey can’t pull out of Syria”, because surrendering the neighbor to Assad and PKK-affiliated Kurdish entity YPG-PYD would earnestly create problems of survival in the long run. At the very least, the nearly 4 million strong Syrian refugee popu...

Gripped by political uncertainty
PERU · Report · 07 Aug 2019

We project 2019 growth at just 2.6%, but deterioration of the political situation, and the perception that an anti-system candidate could become the next president, could further damage growth prospects. In addition, international turbulence could affect emerging countries, including Peru. On the...

Cortizo hit the ground running in economic and financial policies… while the economy continues to slide
PANAMA · Report · 06 Aug 2019

July was an active month for “Nito” Cortizo’s government. He visited international banks in New York to explain the government’s strategy to eliminate Panama from the gray list of non-cooperating countries in matters of money laundering after its inclusion (again) in June of this year. Also, the ...

With Medina’s retreat, Abinader likeliest to become president
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 06 Aug 2019

President Danilo Medina announced that he’d given up all efforts to run for a third consecutive term. Though he said his decision was motivated by his respect for the rules of the game, he in truth threw in the towel because he couldn’t achieve his goal. And he hasn’t permanently given up. Now...

It’s not whether to cut or not but by how much
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Aug 2019

There is speculation about the possibility that the Monetary Board (MB) is prepared to cut policy rates by 50bp this year. It seems that the question before the MB on Thursday is not whether to cut or not but how to space the 50bp over the remaining five months.In our note last month, we noted th...

Russia's efforts to de-dollarize are slowly succeeding
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Aug 2019 · 1 response

Russia is successfully reducing its use of the USD. Putin is determined to make his country less vulnerable to US sanctions. Last year Russia got rid of half its USD holdings. However, there is only so far Russia can go in de-dollarizing since the USD is the go-to currency in so many sectors espe...

The positive agenda, President Bolsonaro’s popularity and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2019

The Lower House may conclude voting on Pension Reform, sending the text to the Senate. Caixa releases the calendar for withdrawals from FGTS and PIS/PASEP accounts; the government estimates an injection of R$ 28 billion in the economy this year. On Thursday, IBGE releases inflation data for July....

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2019

The political scenario continues to be guided by two basic forces: the abundant signs that President Bolsonaro is unprepared for office, and the reaction of the other branches of government and Brazilian society, trying to reduce the damages and make progress toward the reforms that are necessary...

President Ramaphosa’s battles with the Public Protector deepen
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Aug 2019

​Months have gone by since the battle between President Ramaphosa and the Public Protector, Ms Mkhwebane started. The Public Protector alleged the President of breaking the Executive Ethics Code following his response to the Parliament about donations to his Presidential campaign from BOSASA (now...

The labor market and the recovery pace
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2019

​The Central Bank resumed the monetary easing cycle, cutting the SELIC rate by 50 basis points, to 6.0%, at the last COPOM meeting. The Bank’s projection model indicates that the SELIC will be reduced at least once more by 50 points, and we expect further cuts bringing the SELIC rate to 5% at the...

Economics: Barely dodging a recession, for now
MEXICO · Report · 05 Aug 2019

Last Wednesday’s preliminary report on second quarter GDP defied expectations that the Mexican economy may have embarked on a recession, but only by the barest of margins, as activity gained a single basis point over levels of the previous quarter and only 0.4% compared to a year earlier. But in ...

Politics: No answer to soaring violence
MEXICO · Report · 05 Aug 2019

Inegi has released its annual report on homicides in Mexico corresponding to 2018, and the data confirms that the year was the most violent since the institute first began publishing such data in 1990. With the exception of a slight downtrend from mid-2011 to late 2014, increasing homicidal viole...

What does it mean for the RMB to “crack 7”?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 05 Aug 2019

​• The RMB closed above 7 to the dollar today for the first time since before the financial crisis in 2008, and that was part of the currency’s steady appreciation path since July 2005. This is mainly about political signaling, and reflects the fact that Beijing has very few tools with which to r...

Yuan falls below 7
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Aug 2019

China’s decision to let the yuan drop below the symbolic 7 level was a striking departure from the PBOC’s stance over the past decade. Although never formally stated, the 7.0 level has been the defacto limit on the value of the currency. We can see several possible causes for this breaking of the...

July inflation: up for technical reasons
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Aug 2019

Consumer prices rose by 1.4%, m/m, in July lower than the consensus (1.6%) and our even somewhat higher forecast, but the 12-month rate nevertheless increased to 16.6%, from 15.7% in June because of administrative price hikes and tax adjustments, which, incidentally, marked the first increase sin...

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