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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

OMAN: Reflections ahead of a potential issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Sep 2020 · 1 response

* Oman may issue at least $3bn in bonds imminently. * This is coming sooner than expected, and ahead of reforms or external support, because of concerns about a renewed downturn in the yield environment. * The VAT law should be issued soon, but implementation could be delayed until 2022. * The...

Lack of agreement postpones sending the second phase of the Tax Reform proposal; the creation of a new social program is announced
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2020

The government leader in the Lower House, Ricardo Barros (PP-PR), announced today that there is still no consensus on the second phase of the Tax Reform proposal. During the announcement, the government leader was accompanied by President Jair Bolsonaro, ministers, and party leaders. At the same...

Economics: Pemex and the 2021 Economy
MEXICO · Report · 28 Sep 2020 · 1 response

The Pemex that for many decades contributed massively to government coffers and was one of the country’s major sources of foreign currency inflows is no longer. With its 2021 budget package the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has admitted as much. Despite the Federal Government’s i...

A digital tax is still uncertain and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2020

The government may present a new proposal for the digital tax to allies, with the goal of making fiscal room for the payroll tax issue and the creation of a social program to replace the emergency aid payments. The Congressional session to analyze vetoes and the presentation of Deputy Aguinaldo R...

The MPC will be considering further accommodation
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Sep 2020

The economy is expected to decelerate significantly due to the renewed lockdown. Officially, this lockdown will last for 10 more days, but much will depend upon the level of infections. Hi-tech service exports continued to expand despite the Covid crisis; it is a sector that can easily shift work...

The MPC will be considering further accommodation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Sep 2020

Highlights of the weekly Israeli macro wrap up:Monetary policy: The next rate decision is still far away (22.10) but the MPC will be meeting before then to discuss monetary policy. We doubt the MPC will be satisfied with a “hold” decision with no shift in policy. Both weaker growth (due to the re...

Household Consumption in 2021 and the Government’s Possible Reaction
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Sep 2020

Largely due to the emergency relief program, with original payouts of R$ 600 per month, benefiting 65.6 million people, real retail sales have already started to recover briskly. However, households consume services as well as goods, and the consumption of services has rebounded much more slowly....

A Sensible Move
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 28 Sep 2020 · 1 response

The IMF approved Colombia’s request to increase the size of its Flexible Credit Line (FCL) facility from USD 10.800 million (4% of GDP, approved last May) to USD 17.300 million (6.5% of GDP). The Ministry of Finance announced that part of the additional resources (USD 5.300 million or 2.0% of GDP...

Recession—the beginning or the end?
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Sep 2020

What we have seen in the past few months clearly shows that Covid-19 has not only hit people's health, but also their welfare. Particularly in Indonesia, where the informal economy is large, the implementation of restrictions on mobility in various areas was a big blow to people's income. The aff...

Evergrande and stress in China’s property market
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Sep 2020

China’s property market has long been the weak link in the economy. It is the bubble that supports growth – including local consumption, fixed asset investment, and local government fiscal revenue. Although property sales remain healthy, the developers themselves are increasingly under financial ...

Politics: 4T and Morena electoral prospects for 2021
MEXICO · Report · 28 Sep 2020

The terrible impact of the economic and health crises, an administration that has proven itself ineffective in almost every aspect of governing, and the negative trend in popularity of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (see last week’s Political Outlook) are factors that are complicating the ...

​Takeaways from the Fiscal Risks Statement
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Sep 2020

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) published recently its annual Fiscal Risks Statement (FSR)[1]. This year’s report covers the impact of the covid19 pandemic on government’s fiscal health over the medium-term. Below are our key takeaways of fiscal risks to keep watch of over th...

Armenian opposition leader arrested as the country clashes with Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Sep 2020

On September 26 Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged fire across the ceasefire in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh Region. The Azeris used many drones. Turkey has offered vocal support even more strident than usual. Both sides acknowledged sustaining deaths. On September 26 Gagik Tsarukyan was given two...

More political, lesser market tension
TURKEY · Report · 27 Sep 2020

The politics section of this Weekly devotes little space to foreign affairs, as it became almost certain that the EU would slap very light sanctions on Turkey, while other matters of foreign policy have a long fuse. At home though, a new crackdown on pro-Kurdish rights party HDP is liable to a...

Russia war games
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2020

On September 21 military exercises began in southern Russia. The exercises are called Caucasus 2020. China is participating along with Belarus, Iran, Myanmar and Kazakhstan. India had been due to take part but withdrew citing coronavirus. It is suspected that the ulterior reason was India's borde...

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