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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Debate over the spending ceiling divides the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2020

The direction that the government will take after the pandemic is causing an intense internal debate. In the past few weeks, pressure has grown to increase the spending ceiling. Those advocating for this understand that resuming growth must come through an increase in public investment.

Federal budget deficit widened in July amid increased spending
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2020

The Russian federal budget deficit widened in July so that the 7m20 tally reached R1.5 trln as in 1H20 it was slightly over R1.8 trln. Expenditures in July exceeded R2.0 trln while in 1H20 average monthly expenditures stood below R1.7 trln. As is happens regularly, the Finance Ministry releases p...

Presentation - Lira Volatility Redux: Could This Be the Final Straw?
TURKEY · Report · 12 Aug 2020

Outline: How Did We Get Here? What Was Ankara Thinking? Why Now? What Has Been the Response So Far? Will It Be Enough? What’s Next? Why the “Final Straw” in the Title?

Ministry of Economy growing isolated
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2020

The resignations of the special secretaries of Privatization, Salim Mattar, and De-bureaucratization, Management and Digital Government, Paulo Uebel, had wide-ranging repercussions on the market.

Russia claims to have coronavirus vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2020

On August 11 Putin announced that Russia has licensed a vaccine against COVID-19. He said that his daughter has taken it and experienced only slight side effects. Russia has the 4th highest number of coronavirus cases in the world. Foreign experts are skeptical that the vaccine is safe and reliab...

Poll shows drop in social isolation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2020

The amount of people going into work is growing, even after the coronavirus pandemic in Brazil reached 100,000 deaths and more than 3 million cases. According to the new PoderData poll, 50% of respondents said they have left home to work in the past few weeks. This is 5% higher than the amount...

“Moderate” GDP contraction in 2Q20 sets the potential for an upside revision of economic performance in 2020 as a whole
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2020

Rosstat reported that in 2Q20 the Russian GDP was down by 8.5% y-o-y. It was a preliminary flash estimate, and no other details were provided. The figure is in line with GKEM Analytica’s view that in 2020 GDP may contract by around 4% and even less if some underestimated activities, such as onlin...

Recession continues to contain inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Aug 2020

July inflation was 18 percent month on month (our estimate), only slightly faster than June’s 16 percent, despite faster bolivar depreciation against the dollar (the dollar in bolivar terms rose by 29 percent, compared with 8 percent in June). That outcome suggests that the pass-through effect...

Solid balance of payments in 2020, additional support secured in 2021 by amended double taxation treaties
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2020 · 1 response

As the Russian government continues fine-tuning of its taxation system, move to renegotiate with several countries agreements on avoidance of the double taxation looks natural and reasonable. Earlier the government decided to impose a 15% tax on interest on bank deposits (if total deposits of an ...

A forint-positive surprise in the July inflation data
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Aug 2020

The July data for headline CPI-inflation came out today as 1.1% mom, 3.8% yoy, the year-on-year rate rising sharply from 2.9% in the previous month. Market forecasters were generally surprised, as the analyst consensus was at 3.2-3.3% yoy (our forecast was 3.3% yoy).The monthly rise of consumer p...

China Virus Check – Week August 10
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Aug 2020

Our latest data for economic activity shows a continued split between heavy industry and other sectors. Steel, iron ore and property construction remains vibrant, generally higher YoY. Meanwhile, auto sales, cinema attendance and other measures are weak. This reaffirms China is undergoing a produ...

Belarus protests lead to one death
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2020

On August 9 and 10 illegal protests took place on the streets of Minsk. The protesters did not accept the outcome of the presidential election. The police were trying to suppress the demonstrations. Protests turned into riots with people stoning the police. Some built makeshift barricades.Over 3 ...

South Africa’s economy is ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic, but activity is seeing recovery following the early Q2 slump
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 10 Aug 2020

• South African households: In line with the rest of the economy, South African consumers are under immense pressure on account of years of insipid growth, and as such, domestic demand has been impacted negatively. The expected slump in GNI due to the pandemic, together with the negative impact o...

After 100,000 deaths, pressure on the government grows
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2020

​During the inauguration of a COVID-19 test processing unit at the Oswald Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), in Rio de Janeiro, the interim Minister of Health, General Eduardo Pazuello, said that the government now supports social isolation.

Political climate deteriorates and recession worsens despite the agreement with foreign bondholders
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 10 Aug 2020

The successful restructuring of the government debt has reduced the risk of a disorderly default during Alberto Fernández’s presidency. But in all other respects, the political climate and economic prospects have deteriorated since our May 18th forecast. By mid-May it seemed that the governme...

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