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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Mar 28
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Brazil Economics databank Apr 17
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Central America databank Apr 2
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Chile databank Apr 4
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 3
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 15
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Ecuador databank Mar 26
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Gulf Countries databank Apr 12
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Hungary databank Apr 18
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India databank Mar 28
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Mexico databank Mar 28
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Panama databank Feb 2
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Peru databank Mar 27
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Philippines databank Apr 8
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank Apr 8
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Turkey databank Mar 6
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Ukraine databank Feb 12
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Uruguay databank Mar 27
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Venezuela databank Apr 3
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - TURKEY: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
QATAR: Moody's credit opinion hints at an upgrade path
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Jul 2019
Underlying trends in Moody’s latest credit opinion point towards a potential upgrade path, despite some negative revisions to its economic forecasts. This is because Qatar's “indicative” rating is now at its highest in at least three years, and we expect it will improve further, creating room for...
Revisions are due everywhere, from GDP to fiscal and monetary policy
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Jul 2019
Compared to our previous medium-term forecast, released in April, there are no fewer than five areas where material revisions seem to be justified. First, we are raising our forecast for this year’s GDP, despite maintaining the view that growth should indeed decelerate in H2 and next year. Second...
South Africa’s interest rate cut finally arrives
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Jul 2019
On Thursday (18 July 2019), the nation waited with bated breath on the announcement of the interest rate decision by the Governor of the Reserve Bank (SARB), Mr Lesetja Khanyago. There was a general expectation for the central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points after keeping them uncha...
Russia considering constitutional amendments
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2019
Vyacheslav Volodin, the Speaker of the Russian Parliament, has proposed amending the constitution to transfer some president prerogatives to the Parliament. Volodin's idea has not yet taken the form of draft legislation. Volodin said that his proposal will enable the state to enact social justice...
One more rate cut: down to 17.0%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jul 2019
As expected, the NBU Board approved one more policy rate cut by 0.5 ppt down to 17.0%. The hryvnia's strengthening as well as inflation's easing are behind the decision. The political cycle also appeared to be much smoother than any predicted. The next meeting of the NBU Board will be on Septembe...
Lucky Zelenskiy inherits a boom
UKRAINE · Forecast · 17 Jul 2019
Not only was new President Volodymyr Zelenskiy lucky to enjoy the support of 73% of voters, but he’s also fortunate to have inherited from his predecessor a freshly recharged economy. Ukraine’s GDP is on a sustainable growth path. Private consumption grew 10.7% y/y in Q1, and promises to rise ...
US Congress shifts against Saudi and UAE, hinting at problems post-Trump
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 17 Jul 2019 · 1 response
Later today, the US House of Representatives will pass resolutions blocking emergency arms sales to Saudi Arabia and UAE, which the Administration had fast-tracked as part of its show of force against Iran. President Trump will veto the resolutions, but they are still indicative of hardening opin...
Rail renovation behind schedule
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2019
On July 16 the vice minister of Russian Railroads Maksim Akimov told a private meeting that stage one of upgrading the Trans-Siberian Railroad will not be completed on time. It was supposed to be finished by 2020. Construction is particularly problematic around Lake Baikal and the Amur River. Aki...
SAUDI: Government spending supports non-oil economy and requires further debt issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jul 2019
The sharp slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 was due to voluntary oil production cuts and is not an immediate cause for concern. More positively, government spending in 2018 fed through into higher private non-oil sector growth in Q1 2019. Leading economic data indicates continued momentum in the non-o...
Russia is de-centralizing national projects
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2019
On July 15 Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced that he wished to transfer decision making on the 12 national projects to independent committees. Until now decision about the national projects had been made by the Presidium of the Council on Strategic Development and National Projects. This o...
Primer on Pemex Business Plan: general overview is not promising
MEXICO · In Brief · 16 Jul 2019
This morning the head of Pemex (Octavio Romero), made some general remarks about Pemex Business Plan, that was yesterday unanimously approved by Pemex Board (in absence, but with representation of new Finance Minister A. Herrera). We’ll analyze the full document as soon as it is available, howeve...
Former President Jacob Zuma finally honors the State Capture Commission’s request to face the nation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Jul 2019
In the State of Capture 2016 report by the ex-Public Protector, Thuli Madonzela, the former President, Jacob Zuma, was found to have been the key role player in state capture. The report was “an investigation into complaints of alleged improper and unethical conduct by the president and other st...
Rosneft asks for huge tax break for Arctic exploration
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2019
Igor Sechin (CEO of Rosneft) wrote to President Putin requesting an enormous tax break to enable his company to develop oil production in the Arctic Circle. Rosneft estimates it will spend anywhere between USD 80 billion and 135 billion. The tax exemption requested is worth about USD 41 billion. ...
Pension Reform: The worst has passed and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2019
Congress enters its midyear recess on Thursday, July 18. The government may present details of the Tax Reform proposal it will sent to Congress. The economic team may announce economic stimulus measures. President Bolsonaro takes part in the Mercosur Summit in Argentina. Brazil takes over preside...
Economics: Reality disconnect as the economy stalls
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jul 2019
Almost all major economic growth drivers have stalled or are in retreat, particularly investment, and to a lesser extent both public and private consumption, while economic expectations continue to slip lower. So far the government’s efforts to reassure all stakeholders have proven, at best, poor...